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Prismshine Productions

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Posts posted by Prismshine Productions

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I (think) the Modeling (Models), haven't taken this lil tid-bit of Data into account..
     
    (Just My 2 pennies here).. ..
    As the Low transfers off the Coast, The SST's here, are in fact, WARMER than usual, than other years.. by 10F .. Temps are still reading 62~65F  here on the Beach's.. 
    That will only increase the WAA...

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    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Guys...it happens to us too but starting a storm thread 6 days out is a big big no no. Too much juju to mush your desired outcome
    December 2018 I bit and started a thread on the 384 FV3-GFS, lost the storm for over a week, and ended up getting it right so D6 thread is nothing

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    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Well, things don't look good with the model trends, but they are still showing snow here. It is frustrating to have a setup for a good storm here but not have the track of the low cooperate. Also sucks that outside 5 days you can't trust the models when they do show a big storm. Just a couple days ago we looked golden.
    So why does it create more ice and rain instead of snow when the low tracks inland versus off the coast? How does the inland track bring more warm air?
    Because it drags in tropical air from the Gulf and Atlantic. Arctic air over the CONUS, especially in the Southeast, is extremely frail when it gets pumped full of moisture. There is a reason why places like Siberia get extremely high rates at low QDF and temps, because cold air by nature is drier. When you pump it full of tropical moisture, it can retain latient heat, which is how we get the warm nose due to the fact the Coriolis Effect of Northern Hemisphere anticyclones drags it on shore at the upper levels and at the surface.



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    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. 
    I'm in that camp too, I'm banking on a coastal track because we always lose the OP globals in this range

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    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    CMC still keeps cad locked in more so than gfs. Looking at individual ensembles there are still some nice looking placement of the LP’s. All is not lost guys. I guarantee a whole bunch in here would take a raging sleet fest than a driving rain storm. 
    Or a light glaze of ZR... Depending on how desperate one is

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    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    OP GFS remains well west of the ensemble, but that being said the ensemble just keeps following it every step of the way, just lagging behind by a few runs. Eric Webb on twitter basically saying cling to the GEFS at your own peril, and the OP likely has a better handle, isn't making me feel any better about where things are heading.
     
     
    Yeah, 3 ensembles on the LP placement map are west of the apps this run

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    • Like 1
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