LVwhiteout

On ‎10‎/‎3‎/‎2019 at 3:38 PM, CIK62 said:

My prediction for the winter is a 'COLD, STORMY ECONOMY'.         A Negative Spending Index,  A Positive Inflation Index,   Low Confidence Voter/Consumer Influx from middle America,  Tweeting in Phase 9!,  and a Chief Meteorologist with an Omega Block in his head.     LOL!

I think you nailed it!

3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Hello again from Paul at the East Nantmeal PA Weather Station (www.chescowx.com). Be sure to follow me on twitter at chescopawxman where  I am tweeting daily climate reports, forecast updates and weather and drone photos of our beautiful Township.

 

When I wrote my last article, in early August  we had just experienced a warmer and wetter than normal July. This included 2 days that exceeded 90 degrees; however, those 2 days would be the only days all summer that exceeded 90 degrees. So technically out township never experienced a heat wave (defined as 3 consecutive days over 90) As I mentioned in my last article down in Philadelphia at the airport, they recorded 35 days over 90 degrees with multiple heat waves. The relative high elevation of our township spares us from many 90-degree days (we only average 4 in a typical summer season) . August would continue our warmer than normal stretch marking the 9^th straight month of above normal temperatures. The average temperature was 72.4 which was 2.2 degrees above normal. One big change in our weather was the turn to a much drier pattern that would last throughout both August and September. During August we recorded only 2.71” of rain which was 1.59” below normal. This followed 5 straight months from March through July with above normal rainfall.

 

September would start off wet with 1.16” of rain falling on the 2^nd but only another 0.68” would fall over the remaining 28 days of the month. We would end the month with only 1.84” of rain which is 2.90” below our normal September rainfall of 4.74”. No doubt both our Township farmers and residents noticed their fields and lawns quickly turning brown. However, despite the back to back dry months we are still running 110% of normal YTD rainfall with 40.85” of rain and melted snow having fallen in East Nantmeal so far in 2019. September continued our string of above normal temperatures with an average temp of 67.3 degrees (+2.3 degrees to normal).

 

However, we did record our 1^st couple of mornings with an autumnal chill as both the 19^th and 20^th saw low temps in the upper 40’s with the lowest being the 47.6 on the 19^th. Those mornings marked the 1^st sub-50-degree temperatures in the Township since the 47.4 back on June 4^th. Overall for the summer period from June through September we averaged a temperature of 71.3 this was the 45^th warmest summer in Chester County since local records began in 1894. The warmest being the 74.7 average recorded way back in the summer of 1900. This year was the 6^th warmest summer in the 36 years dating back to 1983.

 

As I write this on October 6^th, we have noted a pretty large pattern change that looks to persist through much of the rest of October with cooler and wetter weather in our future. We have not yet recorded a sub-freezing temperature meaning our growing season (days between last and 1^st freezes) continues here in the township. The average growing season in East Nantmeal is 188 days. This has ranged from as few as 144 days in 1996 to 233 days in 2005. Today is our 188^th day of this growing season. The average date of our 1^st freeze is October 23^rd; however, it has occurred as early as October 1^st in 1993 and as late as November 23^rd in 2015. Snowfall is unlikely in the township until late November; however, we have experienced significant snowfalls in the last 8 years most notably the 9” of wet snow that fell on October 29, 2011 and the 7.3” of snow that fell last November 15^thand 16^th. During November we average just over 1” of snow and during December just under 5 inches. Our normal average seasonal snowfall is 36.6” (fun fact this is the same as Chicago IL)

 

I will hold off on my annual detailed monthly winter forecast until our next issue just before the holidays….however, I am expecting a slightly above normal snow season and at least one major snowstorm of greater than 10”. Until next time I hope all of you enjoy the autumn weather. If you have any questions, please visit my website, follow me on twitter or send me an email. Until next time –All the best!  Paul

 

 Until next time –All the best!  Paul

 

“Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin

Great write up Paul.  Looking forward to your thoughts. I saw Accu Weather put out their winter forecast calling for a stormy Northeast this winter. We'll see.

On ‎10‎/‎7‎/‎2019 at 10:30 AM, The Iceman said:

Coastal low this week should be interesting to track. Incredible spread among the models at such a short range. Ranges anywhere from 1"+ qpf for most of the 95 corridor S and E to rain being confined to the coast. Tough forecast for sure.

Hope this isn't a sign of things this winter. Tired of the tight gradient stuff the last couple of winters.

On ‎9‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 10:59 AM, NYCweatherNOW said:

Cut Bank Montana 

 

I would love to see this in mid December. Can't imagine seeing that the end of September!

58 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

You can tell a less than 6 minute difference?

Actually when you automatically wake up at the same time every morning without an alarm clock you can observe the difference how small it is.

28 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Not me, sunsets are still roughly the same time as they were at the solstice.

My bad. I should have said early morning!

Anybody else start noticing the shortening daylight? I know, I know, but it's a start!

Another 1.20" over night. Radar showing another slug on the way shortly.

In some recent posts, they have referenced the Greenland Block. Not quite sure how long it's been around this time, but does any body think this could signal a sign for the Fall season and Nor'easters?  It seems we have seen atypical lows for this time of the year, including that low over the weekend that came up the coast.  Maybe we can time things better starting in the Fall.

9 hours ago, Voyager said:

It's definitely trending wetter here in Eastern PA.

It's just to bad we can't get that way above average precip. in the winter months when the cold is around!

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I have picked up 1.09" of rain so far today with what looks like more to come.

Current temp 70/DP 68/RH 92%

Monsoon rains the last 35 minutes. I would have to guess close to 2 inches the way everything is flooding.

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Flash Flood Watch extended until late tonight for my area, also a marginal risk for severe storms today which could be upgraded in later outlooks according to the SPC.

Heavy hit of rain here around 5:30 AM.

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

So there's a +NAO and this thing has taken more than 24hrs to climb the coast? If this was snow, it would have been in and out of here in less than 6hrs. Birds is right, someone needs to be punched...lol!

3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

So there's a +NAO and this thing has taken more than 24hrs to climb the coast? If this was snow, it would have been in and out of here in less than 6hrs. Birds is right, someone needs to be punched...lol!

That is EXACTLY what would have happened!

20 hours ago, JTA66 said:

It took until March, but I finally got a snow pack to last more than a week.

Was thinking the same thing yesterday. Even after last nights rain the ground is still covered with 3 or 4 inches.

36 F. and moderate rain at 6:45.  Thought I heard some pingers on the window around 4AM.

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Fact is that it can snow here into April so it isn’t a definite that winter is over just yet. A robust enough pna into the arctic can easily do it

I think in fact we get the PNA, but how robust like you alluded to is the question.

10F. Wind chill 3F.  6:30 AM.  4th morning in a row of 13F or less. Very impressive for this time of year.

10F. Wind chill 3F  6:30AM.  4th morning in a row 13 or less.  Quite impressive for this time of year.

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ship sailed blindly into a rapidly intensifying storm.

A little more South, maybe we could have blamed it on almost being sucked into the Bermuda Triangle!

12degrees here at 6:45 AM. Still 8 inches of glacier in all open areas. Sure there is more in shady and wooded areas.  Impressive!

12 degrees here at 6:45 AM..Looks and feels like January out there with all the snow on the ground.

Ralph - yea I know what you mean. As I posted in Obs it's 21 degrees with light snow coming thru at 12:15PM.

21 degrees with light snow at 12;15PM. Also quite windy.

Your right Ralph Thanks! Still have 8" of glacier on most open areas here since last Thursday. Sun not having a lot of success last 2 days. Will take the extra padding.

Yeah, Sun angle, light rates, whatever falls definitely won't mess with paved surfaces. To bad the cutter on Sunday won't follow the same path or a little more South of  this past Sunday.  But then again there won't be the cold air to work with this time.