ChasingFlakes

Just got home driving from royersford back to Charlestown.  Already hearing sirens at home, maybe an inch.  Slippery roads.

2 hours ago, Animal said:

Huge 0 z nam run tonight!

all big storms that hug the coast mix to near Pottstown on occasion 

March 2017 I ended up with a ton of sleet, Stella I believe.  That snowed, a lot, all the way up thru NNE.

Edit: this article about stella shows a similar rain snow line between stella and what models are showing for this storm.  Obvious differences is the further west canadian high in Stella's setup, which let it crawl up the coast instead of transfer out to sea.     https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-stella-northeast-bust-march-2017

Moderate white rain here. 

Rain snow line creeping towards me, less than 5 miles to my NW.   

Edit: Didn't realize there was an OBS thread started 30 mins ago.

Went outside last night around 1am and immediately saw 2 shooting stars as I was closing the door.  Thought it would be cloudy, but it had cleared up above me for 15 minutes and I sat and saw about 8-10 meteors in that time.  Really good rates, better than the perseids in August, although those tend to have cooler trails and more fireballs than the gemenids. 

19 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Welp, one of my neighbors fired up his snowblower yesterday... I think I might have to see if I can get one of mine working since I won't have any free time between this evening and Wednesday. As much as I'd like to be superstitious and not jinx anything, it's looking like a pretty credible event is going to happen at this point.

"Maybe it’s time to tune up that old snowblower that’s been sitting in your garage" - First line of this NJ.com article.

Plus if we bust, its likely to be sleet and heavy snow so you'll probably still want the blower.  

Terrible time to have messed up my back!  I don't even know what I did, but definitely gonna need to borrow a blower from the neighbor if those clown maps verify.  I remember trying to shovel the 28 inches from the 2016 storm and immediately giving up.

I've been waiting for a deep enough storm to snowboard the steep valley betwern Mt. Misery and Mt. Joy in Valley Forge again and it looks like I might be out of commission for it!  Last time it was possible without hitting rocks was March 2017 with like 8 inches of sleet.  Monday's base building event would make it even better.  Not sure why the links aren't embedding.

https://imgur.com/a/De9sgVJ

https://imgur.com/a/hbsIXm4

Seems to be back building behind the blue mountain ridge by Harrisburg/Carlisle.  Places where the ridge is more parallel to the westerly flow, like Allentown seem to be out of the snow but places that took longer due to the seeming blocking by the perpendicular ridge this am are holding onto it longer.  Something something froude number over 1? 

Snowing here, finally.  Light snow going sideways with the steady breeze 

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Snow is really coming down now! Taking my Calculus III final exam and watching snow fall is all I need in life haha

I agree! Not about the Calc part though.. I'm writing all my final papers this week and then I'm finally done after 7 years of off and on school.  

My sister in Ashburn, VA said its just verga there despite being under radar snow since 8:30.  Looks to be struggling to make it into chesco, hoping for a good flurry.  Wunderground wants rain.

Nice sunrise.  Definitely dark to my north, radar signature to my west dissipated on cue over French Creek.  This second band by Harrisburg looks promising for some region-wide flakes if it can make it over the blue mountain ridge unblocked. 

Anyone have any insight into activating a college epic pass?  I purchased it in Oct, but did not realize you need to be enrolled for both fall and spring semesters in order to recieve the college discount.  I graduate this December and have yet to visit an epic pass mountain.  I should have read the fine print more finely, I tried looking but must have missed this point.

Am I SOL and have to cough up another 200 at the tix window or can I still get a cash refund (not credit)?  I assume they want you signed into the school portal and not just show a screenshot of your schedule.  I am good at photoshop. Just unsure of the process as this is my first time purchasing a pass and I dislike all the hoops I need to jump through so far.  I feel trapped in vail hell but would like to be able to go to Stowe this year.  Thanks in advance.  

Since there's no snow in the immediate forecast, I'm back to looking at the damn surfcams.

Jenk's death slab resembling Backdoor/Pipeline this morning.  

Also I think this is required viewing for anyone interested in weather and the ocean in the mid-atlantic region.  Towing Hurricane Sandy in OCMD with Will Skudin, who recently opened the Skudin Surf wave pool in the American Dream mall.  The last wave in particular has to be the biggest wave surfed in the region.  

Can I weenie tag my own post? 

28 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

It's still fall, right?  I just ran to the store and holy cow there was a strong sustained gust for a few minutes.  The drop ceiling tiles in the breezeway at cvs came flying down when an old lady came in the sliding doors during the gust, she almost got taken out!  Couple limbs down on the roads too.

 

Edit:  There is a tornado warning that was issued at 1:11pm.  Here is a screenshot of radar from the time of the gust in Phoenixville.  

Great way to start the winter OBS thread with severe discussion.  

It's still fall, right?  I just ran to the store and holy cow there was a strong sustained gust for a few minutes.  The drop ceiling tiles in the breezeway at cvs came flying down when an old lady came in the sliding doors during the gust, she almost got taken out!  Couple limbs down on the roads too.

Edit:  There is a tornado warning that was issued at 1:11pm.  Here is a screenshot of radar from the time of the gust in Phoenixville.  

From that yearly snowfall graph, it seems like a season following a season with snowfall below 12 inches averages over 24 inches.  I didn't do any math, since there isn't that many data points under 12 inches anyways,  but there is the 40 inch and 60 inch outlier in 92-93 and 02-03.  32-33, 37-38, 42-43, 50-51, 59-60, 71-72, 73-74 and 98-99 all average about 2 feet following a year below a foot of snowfall.  There doesn't seem to be any seasons where we received under a foot two years in a row and if anything it appears we either have a slightly below average season or a highly above average season following a season with under a foot of snow.  

4 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

And that's what I love about up here.  Yeah, it would be great to get a big synoptic event with a high water content to put down a solid base on the natural trails, but it seems like up here, with every threat comes the potential for that backside cold shot bringing the up-slope.  I forgot which one of you reminded me, the northern greens don't move, so when that upper level pattern can be forecast several days out, we can have more confidence in getting some decent snows, rather than living and dying with each model run.  I may be different that some folks who just love the big event that you track for days with the highs and lows of 1 am model runs, but I'll take the consistent powder days all winter long over the blockbuster.  Hopefully, that gfs run that shows a few days of up-slope magic and below freezing highs gets some terrain open next week.  We saw some on and off mixed precip yesterday, but nothing but grass outside right now.

 

Seems like the greens always get good right-side up snowfalls due to this.  The synoptic event brings the denser low-ratio snow, or rain, with warmer temps and then the storm will transition to the low-density stuff as the upslope kicks in.  I've noticed with a base, a 6 inch snowfall can ski a lot deeper just due to the gentle shift between dense and fluffy snow.  Even on events that begin with rain, this seems to occur more often than not.  Otherwise you get a rain crust, which sucks, but likely helps hold the pack for longer.  

Perfect weather to sit outside.  Hope everyone has a happy and healthy holiday.  

3 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I moved up from West Chester in 2014, albeit permanently.

Can't speak for NVT, but around here rentals and long term leases are scarce and most that are available are pricey. But since it seems your young and no attachments(kids, etc) maybe able find a smaller place--studio/1bed, but again not sure about BTV market, but assume stuff is high demand.

Thanks, I looked into it in September and everything seemed pricey or geared towards UVM students.  I'd have to keep looking, I have a potential job opportunity in Saratoga Springs, which at least would get me most of the way to NNE.  Only tied down by my gf, whose only reason to stay in PA is her terminally ill mother. 

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Jay was doing long term 2br condo rentals a month ago.  It’s going to be a ghost town with the border closed, so might be worth checking out .

Thanks, having stayed at a Jay ski in ski out condo as a child, I assume they are expensive since they are so nice.  I normally stay at Grampa grunts in Montgomery for 45/night when I go to Jay, obviously not a long-term solution.  I'll look into the condos though. 

Sidenote, Mike Hayes Global head of global marketing at Ben and Jerry's has my dream job, he skis Mansfield all the time.  PF might know him, anyways I wish I could work for him. 

6 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Small blessing I guess with COVID is the flexbililty to be where you want to be for long stetches. (As opposed to weekend warrioring it)  Is everyone just homeschooling their kids? (Don't know if you have any or not, more a general question)

My wife's cousin has lived and Brooklyn for 10+ years and bought a 2nd place in Manchester recently and will be here reomtely until they are needed full time back in the office.  They enrolled their only child in school here for the year.

I've been considering moving up here.  I wish I could get a 3-6 month lease or something starting in January.  If anyone has any insight into renting or finding a place to stay, that'd be great.  I'm graduating in December from the Media Studies and Production program at Temple, a job in Burlington would be sweet.  Trying to gtfo of PA.  

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Heard a rumble of thunder at 3:30 last night, woke me up. Checked the radar and sure enough a hefty storm was rolling through

Had a gust front roll through just after 5am, woke me up.  

First flakes of the season mixing in with light rain.  45f

I remember being at Smuggs around Christmas 2011 and there being no snow aside from man made.  Not sure when resorts opened that year, but I assume that was the most recent season to startup late.  

Nice view looking east, KOP and Philly lighting up the receding cloud deck, with very clear skies overhead thanks to the new moon and dry air.  Some occasional gusts.

4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

No lightning here but getting pretty windy with some green transformer flashes off to the west and north.

Yeah I saw some transformers flashing in phoenixville a few miles to my north.  Saw some wild lightning too.  No visible bolts but the entire sky litup a crazy greenish blue and then a minute later the same thing but red/yellow.  Looked like daylight for a second.  Also disappointed in the wind but not complaining after all the tree removal needed from the seperate June 3rd Derecho and microburst events.