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VOLtage

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  1. Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Memphis TN
    1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
    
    MSC057-095-140445-
    /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190414T0445Z/
    Itawamba MS-Monroe MS-
    1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
    
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR
    SOUTHEASTERN ITAWAMBA AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...
    
    At 1130 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
    located near Detroit, or 10 miles northwest of Sulligent, moving
    northeast at 55 mph.
    
    This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
    
    HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
    
    SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
    
    IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
             be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
             will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
             businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
             is possible.
    
    Locations impacted include...
    Amory, Smithville, New Salem, Hatley, Gattman, Sipsey Fork, Quincy,
    Cardsville, Turon, Splunge, Wise Gap, Athens, Greenwood Springs and
    Parham.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
    tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
    to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a
    sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
    home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
    protect yourself from flying debris.
    
    Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
    wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
    
    &&
    
    LAT...LON 3417 8840 3415 8819 3383 8824 3388 8849
    TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 202DEG 46KT 3399 8828
    
    TORNADO...OBSERVED
    TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
    HAIL...0.00IN
    
  2. Day 1 Outlook:

    
    
    
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019
    
       Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
    
       ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST
       TEXAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
       MISSISSIPPI...
    
       ...SUMMARY...
       Numerous to widespread severe thunderstorms are expected across
       parts of the south-central to southeast states through tonight. The
       most likely region for strong tornadoes is from east Texas to
       Mississippi, with the most dangerous period for tornadoes being
       between about 2 to 8 PM CDT.
    
       ...TX to TN Valley...
       No substantial changes to categorical areas with this outlook
       (beyond reducing area behind the convective line in TX).
    
       Surface cyclone near College Station should move northeast towards
       northwest LA and then across the Mid-South through tonight, as a
       warm front advances north from southeast TX/central LA. Parameter
       space is very supportive of supercells, with persistent
       warm-advection north of the front yielding a risk for large hail.
       Along and south of the front, main uncertainties are longevity and
       discreteness of favorable storm mode. A deeply moist boundary layer
       with upper 60s to lower 70s dew points will spread north, supporting
       preconvective MLCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg across southeast TX
       and southern LA. Such buoyancy will be quite favorable for all forms
       of severe, amid strengthening deep shear related to the approach of
       the mid/upper trough. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors and
       hodograph sizes will be quite large along and south of the warm
       front (from the Sabine Valley eastward), with forecast soundings
       yielding 250-600 J/kg effective SRH. Any sustained supercells in
       this environment will be capable of significant tornadoes.
    
       With time this evening and overnight, convection should organize
       into a roughly north/south-aligned band over the Lower Mississippi
       Valley region, as deep convergence becomes better-focused in the
       mass response ahead of the synoptic wave. As this occurs, the main
       threat in a bulk sense may become damaging wind tonight. However,
       given the strong inflow-layer SRH, tornadoes still will be probable
       from both embedded supercells and QLCS mesovortices.
    
       ...Central/eastern NC...
       Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through this
       afternoon, offering the potential for locally strong wind gusts and
       marginally severe hail.
    
       Mid/upper-level support will be lacking, beneath a belt of 
       southwesterlies aloft. But the region will straddle a low-level
       moist axis characterized by surface dew points generally in the
       mid/upper 60s F, supporting preconvective MLCAPE from 1000-2000
       J/kg. Though low-level flow will be weak, limiting boundary-layer
       shear and hodograph size, the height gradient will remain
       sufficiently tight aloft to support strong storm-relative winds in
       upper levels, and effective-shear around 40-45 kt. As such, a few
       organized multicells and sporadic supercell structures will be
       possible. Storm intensity will diminish after sunset.

     

     

  3. 24 minutes ago, METALSTORM said:

    Indystorm I've noticed the maps for each forecast office seem to be stuck. LSX and SGF have been showing the same SVR polygon for a few hours now. JAN and MEG are not showing the tornado watch on their maps and the flash flood warnings are not updating on their maps either. The NOAA national map seems to be ok but the individual offices seem to be having a software problem.

    They had better get their act together on an active day like today.

  4. They just issued a PDS Flash Flood Warning for Knox county.

     

    The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a
    
    * Flash Flood Warning for...
      Knox County in east Tennessee...
    
    * Until 130 PM EST.
    
    * At 1036 AM EST, emergency management reported heavy rain across
      the warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have already fallen over
      the last 3 to 4 hours with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible
      over the next 2 hours. Flash flooding is already occurring.
    
      This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Knoxville. This is a
      PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
    
    * Some locations that will experience flooding include...
      Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Alcoa, Farragut, Louisville, Plainview,
      Halls, Blaine, Karns, Kimberlin Heights, House Mountain State Park,
      Lake Forest, Maloneyville, Mascot, Bearden, Powell and Seymour.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
    life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
    fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.
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