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VOLtage

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  1. MD 428 graphic

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
       SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop with storms that initiate
       along a cold front, posing a threat for damaging gusts. A couple
       instances of severe hail/tornadoes are also possible.
    
       DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to develop within the warm sector
       environment 50-150 nautical miles ahead of the cold front despite
       ample diurnal heating and the presence of adequate buoyancy.
       However, storms have been developing along and immediately behind
       the cold front over the past hour. An uptick in storm coverage and
       intensity is possible over the next few hours as the cold front
       continues to progress eastward. The 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by
       60-65 F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates, along
       with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that damaging gusts may
       be the main threat with the more organized multicells/transient
       supercells that can develop. However, a few surface observations
       along a CHA to CPF line show some backing of the surface winds. Any
       storms that can mature amid these back winds may exhibit at least
       brief bouts of strong low-level rotation, with severe hail and a
       couple of tornadoes possible.

     

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