Solution Man

The Raleigh whiff for D.C.

Money panels coming

Lots of major hits in there, I choose 26…beat down for all

That model drives me crazy

Other model moving towards GFS, GFS REMAINS ROCK SOLID

Who started thisanyway

Yes, I would find it hard to believe in a complete cave now. Refinement mode now. It will wobble but it seems locked in. The GFS has been like a pit bull for days.

990 of Delmarva at 66, she’s still a beaut. We may have lost a bit of qpf, not sure yet

Mod-heavy through 63

Very heavy snow throughout region through 57

Money frames coming through 54

Remarkably consistent

NWS snippet A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for the back half of the weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified, but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is also an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. Most of the models has a low tracking up from GA/AL toward the NC coast and off the Delmarva coast during the late Saturday night into late Sunday timeframe. The question remains in the proximity toward the coast along with cold air availability, and the overall scope of the precip shield pending the placement/intensity of the system. 25 to 50 miles could make a huge difference between seeing little to no wintry precip or impactful precip, especially for those east of the mountains where the confidence remains low due to thermal issues especially below elevations of 1500 feet. The 00z GFS/GEFS solutions have come down a tad, but still produce measurements on the order of 10+" of snow over a large chunk of the area. Meanwhile, the 12z EPS ensembles came up some, but at much more conservative levels which align with deterministic runs of the NAM, RDPS, GDPS, GEM, CMC, EURO/EURO AIFS, and UKMET. The latest NBM also came up a bit and aligns with the majority compared to the GFS/GEFS outliers, especially along and east of I-95. With that said, the 6/12z model suites should put the remaining puzzle pieces together as we will sit 60 hours from the event. Three scenarios remain: 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. We still remain in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea.

Nam at range precip field quite a bit wester on this run. Looks like it’s in GFS camp…gives Norfolk 30 inches lol

Who’s got the com for euro?

This EURO run lays the groundwork

For once I think the handwriting’s on the wall

Let’s see

Got 4 beds in Haymarket

CMC goes from a 991 at 12z to a 970 at 0z and wester at 78, just saying

Hmmm

How we doing @stormtracker you up