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Jessy89

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Posts posted by Jessy89

  1. As for the mountains of NC. Going to Maggie Valley I think I’ll see snow after 6pm maybe lasting through 10 or 11pm but then mixing issues sleet even freezing rain. But then I noticed the low In Tennessee bringing a round two of snow 2am to 6-7am so really the mountains see two thumps. The upstate and ne Georgia a window of opportunity maybe 7pm to midnight then sleet and rain.


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  2. image.png.54ba1ebe5a551844b7fc34b677ce14f5.png
     
    ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL  ACUS48 KWNS 160845  SPC AC 160845  Day 4-8 Convective Outlook    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0345 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020  Valid 191200Z - 241200Z  ...DISCUSSION...  Models have come into better agreement depicting a shortwave trough  moving quickly from TX Sunday/D4 morning to GA by 12Z Monday/D5. Low  pressure is forecast to develop over the Red River during the day  Sunday, shifting east toward the lower MS Valley by 00Z. Ahead of  the low, a warm front will lift north across the Gulf Coast states,  with upper 60s F dewpoints likely into central MS, AL, and GA, with  low 70s F along the coast. MUCAPE to at least 2000 J/kg is likely by  18Z from TX into AL, with strong westerly winds aloft and 500 mb  temperatures on the order of -10 to -12 C.   Storms are forecast to form relatively early over east TX, where the  environment will support large hail and damaging winds. Supercells  are possible initially, with an eventual MCS likely. A tornado or  two will be possible despite marginal low-level shear. Meanwhile to  the east, warm advection may support supercells well ahead of the  MCS across MS, AL, GA, producing a tornado or two along with hail.   The primary severe risk in terms of coverage will likely be an MCS  tied to the surface low as it quickly moves along the east-west  instability gradient across LA, MS, AL and into GA. Significant  convective feedback is present in the models, supporting the notion  of a well-defined MCS with damaging winds. While SRH will not be  very strong initially, it should increase after 00Z, with enhanced  wind and/or tornado potential. The corridor of maximum threat will  likely be adjusted in later outlooks.


    Lordy I hope this isn’t like the past event.


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