RocketWX

Ended up with about 6" at my house. That might have been the slowest, steadiest snow I can recall, that eventually accumulated to that amount. Made for a relaxing weekend watching and tracking. Glad we could squeeze out some moisture in the plains.

Agreed. Radar is also showing probably the healthiest band of snow up to this point, for the majority of the Wichita area moving in now, when just yesterday it looked completely dry on the models at this time. The first wave absolutely was underwhelming, but maybe we get lucky on round 2.

Update: They already posted it. They definitely call out that the main axis of snowfall has shifted south and east for Saturday night. Now calling for 5-8" for SC KS with Southeast KS approaching 10". Of note 4-6" of that is with the first wave, so they're leaning toward the 2nd wave having minimal impact here. I'll take it, but feels like we'll just miss out on the real fun that south and east of here will get.

I'll be very curious to read ICT's afternoon Forecast Discussion and their thoughts on the 2nd system and it's potential impact on this area.

Just an update on Temps...my weather station is currently showing 10.2 degrees. Seems to be running a few degrees colder than HRRR

Round 1 may be getting an early start with snow already being reported in Central KS.

This was my concern for us. Getting in on the first wave but missing the second. Needed both to get the big totals.

My main concern (possible failure mode) here in Wichita, is how these two waves impact us. The first piece of energy kicks out Friday night and will initially need to saturate dry air. How long does that take and how impactful is this initial wave? Should we underperform, that leaves us with the 2nd wave, (the ejection of the main ULL) which could miss us to the South and East. By failure mode I mean, failing to hit the upper echelon of some of modeled totals. Think we're in for a solid Warning criteria snow regardless. Getting closer to kicking this thing off!

Here is the latest NBM run. Still throwing out hefty totals for pretty much everyone here. Not shocking since models have yet to back down on totals.

Yeah, I just saw that 18z ICON run. If nothing else, this storm has provided some hall of fame worthy model runs and we're within 48hrs of it getting started. Excited to see how this shakes out.

Here is the latest NBM, compared to 24 hours ago. Definitely a noticeable northward shift in extent of heavier totals. It hasn't necessarily backed off on the Oklahoma side either, but rather just a larger swath of heavier precip among the models. I'm definitely feeling more optimistic about a meaningful snow in SC KS than I was 24-48hrs ago.

Here is the most recent run of NWS Blend of Models through Sunday evening. I haven't done a ton of research on it, but essentially it combines multiple numerical weather models and post processed data in hopes of giving an accurate and reliable starting point for NWS forecasts. I will say this most recent run is the most bullish with amounts across the board so far. Previous runs had ICT in the 3-5" range. This is probably due to a few factors. Models becoming more aligned as we go (confidence) and/or trends in the models. I'd still expect some fluctuations as we progress through the week, but I'd expect them to become smaller by the day. I'll be curious how this does as I don't have much history with it.

Well I think this is my first post of the winter season but we finally have a storm to track. Here in SC KS, I'm keeping my expectations tempered for now. While the bitter cold air is for certain, the amount of precip we can squeeze out will be the question. With fresh polar air flowing in, I'm sure we'll be battling dry air for awhile. Won't take much QPF though, as snow:liquid ratios will be quite high here. The ECMWF, GDPS and finally ICON seem to be trending positively for us locally, with GFS still the outlier but signs of it slowly following suit. Hoping for a few inches of snow at least. As mentioned, still a good amount of possibilities with this one.

Well it looks like all eyes on Tuesday at this point. Potential for extremely cold temperatures accompanied with precipitation. Combined with high snow ratios is leading to some robust snow totals on the models. We'll see how this trends as we get closer. Euro, ICON and Canadian models seem to have same idea with GFS differing a bit depending on run.

Going to be an interesting week coming up for many around here. We have the system tomorrow, one to watch Saturday and then another next Tuesday/Wednesday. How these upper level waves eject out of the west are critical in if these produce anything. Models seem to be flip flopping from run to run from positive/sheared, to holding together with a somewhat of a neutral tilt which leads to meaningful precip. The GEFS ensembles through next Thursday morning show the myriad of possibilities based on this morning's 12Z run. This would be all 3 systems combined. Should at least be fun to track. Side note: The temperature swing from this Thursday morning to Friday afternoon is pretty wild. Some big time WAA with those gusty southerlies.