Tallis Rockwell

...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should impact the western CONUS this upcoming weekend, eventually closing off over parts of the Southwest and adjacent northern Mexico around Day 5/Sunday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that this upper trough/low will eject east-northeastward across the Plains early next week. However, there are still differences regarding the degree of low-level moisture return and resultant instability that will develop ahead of this feature over the Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some severe threat may exist from late Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday, mainly across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley. This threat could continue into parts of the Southeast on Day 8/Wednesday. Inclusion of 15% severe probabilities in this extended time frame appears imprudent given the differences in both how and when the upper trough/low ejects over the Plains (positive versus negative tilt), and uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture return across these regions.

NAM is really showing something here...Could this be the first high risk of the year? The NAM model are starting to show more discrete cells ahead of the cold front, not a whole lot but a decent bit.

Low level winds for Friday is looking impressive!

My body is ready.