Zach’s Pop

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. As you know it takes time to flush. First you need a courtesy flush which stops the PAC puke. Then, we flush again and make sure we get all the streak marks left around the bowl.

You sound like an expert on flushing. Maybe a visit to the doctor is in order 

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well by the end of the run the pacific jet kind of is cut off so once that air is flushed as the. EPO builds it will get quite wintry.   GEFS agrees.

Totally agree. 

For those fearing the second half of December, who were going to sit inside with their shades drawn, eating bacon from the one eyed pig they talked about. Enjoy!!! 

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Hmm. I take the weeklies with a grain of salt at times .

So, is Eric saying warm, wet then cold, dry. 

And what about the consistency here. Maybe if someone can post them to get a better handle.  

I am growing a ltitle more interested that we might get a chance at something though prior to Christmas in the snow department .

Getting back to the precip for later in Dec and Jan., and wet versus dry, @bluewave had a most interesting post today regarding how the weather pattern was almost La Nina like vs Nino recently, and stated that the SOI has been positive and the ocean and atmosphere are not really coupled to yield the full benefit of a El Nino.  

Will be interesting to say the least to see how things play out. 

 

 

He doesn’t say warm and wet. He says turning stormier 2nd half of December. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like Dad is going senile. Going to have to put him in a home soon.

Really?? Would you like me to bump your posts from early last week??  Careful before you say yes. 

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I won’t be surprised if we all have a white Xmas 

This. Notice the same guys that were all one eyed pig talk don’t mention it anymore. So why should they be believed now?? 3-4 day relaxation and then winter. Not bitterly cold but not the 2-3 week bleek picture some were pimping last week. 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

You going to cry if I'm right or what? Cold Novembers in the NE are pretty common in El Ninos. Even years like 1997 had them. Even Bastardi seems to think it will be warm for a while. It's easy to say "You're wrong" and then not post anything to contradict it or support cold, but it sure as hell is lazy. You just keep hiding there and passively aggressively needling me for saying stuff you don't want to hear. The MJO keeps getting forecast to move more and more coherently through phase four, that is warm for the NE. Nature doesn't care that you don't like what it is doing. Deal with it.

I don't think showing you anything could convince you the NE will be warm at this point, I think it'd be 200F every day the rest of December for you to even consider it. The NE corridor is +3 to +5 so far v 1981-2010, warmer v 1951-2010. The coming cold will take that down, and then next warm up will come.  

 

 

You seem so intent on the northeast being warm. And big deal about what JB says. Yesterday you used CPC maps. Today’s it’s Bastardi. Tomorrow it will be whatever else you can come up with.  I have seen you walk back that comment a couple of times claiming you really aren’t calling for it to be that warm. Another fact that might interest you is I don’t live in the northeast. But I believe someone up there must have called you a poopy head one time because you sure like to mention warmth up there. Your snowfall call for Boston is going to bust big time. And when it does I hope you are man enough to admit it. 

7 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Is there anything that could convince you that December could be warm other than 100F days every day at this point? It's not me trying to be mean. Three warm days. More are coming. This was supposed to be the cold part of the month for you guys. This is MJO phase one right now, that can be quite cold in the NE in December. Phase 2-3-4 are all warmer. I'd say progression into 2-3 is close to guaranteed at high amplitude at this point for Dec. The NAO is positive, and looks to stay positive for awhile. The month so far looks like the composite for +NAO Decembers over the last 60 years. The first three days of November were honestly pretty close nationally to the final monthly figures for what its worth. The MJO migration, +NAO, Nino 4, cold Nov in the Plains, the subsurface analogs, the SOI, and CPC all favor warmth for at least several weeks of December for most of the US. I don't know what more you could want. I don't just say stuff like this for fun, there are pretty clear signals for warmth all over. Decembers in recent El Ninos like 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2015 all had at the least, very warm spells in the NE in December. Other than 1997 and 2015, all of those years have at least some similarities to this event. The Fall pattern in 1963 was very warm, and then went very cold in Dec. We were opposite 1963 in Fall, and so far, it looks opposite in Dec. So there is that too.

Here is the MJO basis - CPC is fairly well grounded for this. NAO is nice and positive for now, and what looks like a while too....and it looks like this month so far?

CPC?? Would you like me to show you their maps from November??? The ones that kept showing it warm in the east?? Of course you wouldn’t.  What is The altitude out there in Albuquerque? I think it maybe effecting your critical thinking. But we get it. Warm for the east. Cold for Albuquerque. 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

CPC has ONI at +0.7C in Nino 3.4 for Sept-Nov 2018. The un-rounded number is +0.72, with +0.89C for Nov.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.40
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.87
2018  11   27.63   26.75    0.89

The years I posted above are all close, and September didn't change much from last month's update, only by 0.04C.

These are objectively the closest Novembers in Nino 3.4 -

2018	27.63
1957	27.62
2006	27.69
1986	27.71
1987	27.77
1963	27.47
2014	27.46
1994	27.81

For all Nino zones in November, these are top matches - some pretty warm Decembers (2006, 1994, 2014, 1991, 2004, 1987 are all warm for at least half the US) are included.

Nov	4	3.4	3	1.2	Match
2018	29.67	27.63	25.99	22.39	0.00
2006	29.62	27.69	26.10	22.45	0.28
1994	29.44	27.81	25.99	22.26	0.54
2014	29.43	27.46	25.88	22.45	0.58
1991	29.39	27.90	26.05	22.38	0.62
2004	29.45	27.36	25.73	22.37	0.77
1987	29.52	27.77	26.09	22.80	0.80

For Sept-Nov, the transition is most similar to these years in Nino 3.4, objectively -

Year	Sept	Oct	Nov	Match
2018	27.19	27.62	27.63	0.00
1986	27.24	27.53	27.71	0.22
1994	27.20	27.47	27.81	0.34
1991	27.14	27.58	27.90	0.36
2006	27.32	27.41	27.69	0.40
1957	27.44	27.42	27.62	0.46
1976	27.02	27.46	27.41	0.55

The weeklies still look like 2006 to me, although 2014 isn't bad now. Both were warm in December nationally.

              Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week         SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
28NOV2018     22.5 0.5     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.1
26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
29NOV2006     23.0 0.9     26.1 1.1     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.0

2002 and 2009 were both way stronger in Nino 3.4 relative to Nino 1.2 v. this year by this point.

27NOV2002     22.6 0.6     26.4 1.4     28.2 1.6     29.7 1.2
25NOV2009     22.2 0.3     26.3 1.2     28.2 1.6     29.9 1.3

Here is a look at US temps so far - very early days still, so will change dramatically, but this is already nearing 10% of the month. 

Lol. 2 days worth of temp departures. Too funny raindancewx. 

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You seem really scared of a warmup. Maybe HM will rock you to sleep tonight? Maybe a GLAAM lullaby?

Not at all. 4 or 5 days of nice weather will be great. But that is very different of what a couple of you were preaching last week. Pattern recognition is what separates the men from the boys. Hopefully some of you become men someday 

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Canada being flooded with warm air isn’t a great or cold look for us here

You are right. Those bright reds up there must be what, 70-85 degrees up there?? We are doomed 

6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

What a way to run a warm up looks like a few days. Looks like the cold comes back before Christmas. 

 

 

 

Color me shocked

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

D10 EPS looked terrible....how does 11-15 look? Zach’s pop would like to know.

They look like your yard after you fed your chickens. 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What kind of small change?

See that little bundle of energy just south of Hudson Bay on the left panel (12z run). That helped to keep the confluence locked in longer over the NE, not allowing the confluence to lift out, hence the storm couldn’t come up the coast. On the right panel, 0z run that energy isn’t there, the confluence lifts our and you get last nights result. 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I’ve been reading hs stuff for years-he is excellent.  The writing ability is really a lot higher this year it seems.

Good to see the young Turks growing into such great weather experts. 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Great post!  I’m learning a lot here.  And as an aside, I like your writing style.

He is one of the best. Glad you took the time to read his thoughts!

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases  right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9.

Excellent analysis. Well done and I agree with the supersized confluence happening on December 9. We didn’t have that in 2009–10 like that. Not happening this early, this winter either 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess what Don S and Will said was garbage too? It’s a week relaxation or so on the GFS. I said two weeks. Somehow I’ll carry on if I’m off by a week.  

Will has never really been on the long relaxation period as you have. I read your posts for a week before I made any response to you. You were making claims like close the shades for awhile, and other comments. I get it, you like to stir the pot with the weenies. Get them riled up. But while you were doing that, you were missing some real good stuff my Tom and others on why it wouldn’t get that warm or as ugly as the EPS were implying. I agree that a 5-7 day period of milder than normal weather is coming. But before that everyone might get a snowstorm and after the relaxation is over a pretty good pattern sets up. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

All it did was turn it west to pump the PNA. The low won’t vanish, it’s a matter of shifting west or east. You need a time out?

You don’t like be challenged I see so you threaten me with a time out?? Lol

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably the GEFS being the GEFS, but that was a massive change in the 11-15 day.

No, doing what others predicted would happen. Thanks for playing Daddy 

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also nobody said torch.

How’s it looking Daddy??

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I said that before, but people think relaxation equals torch. As many have said it does not. It’s a break from what we’ve endured. It’s a pattern that could feature 50-60 and also snow. It’s just not a prolonged wintry look. If people looked at the hemispheric signals that the weeklies and now all ensembles show, they would have seen that. It’s coming. Fact not opinion. Whether it’s 7 days or 14+ days is debatable. I think this is a 2 week thing potentially, but it could be less. 

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s coming. Embrace it and call me your daddy. 

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

You gonna call him your daddy if he’s right?   

Call him Daddy?? Looks like my Daddy can’t lose. Could be 60’s or it could snow!! Wow, bold call!!!!  But whatever the weeklies call for we run with!!! 

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I keep seeing people say this, but what is this based on? It could easily be a pretty mild 10-14 days. It could also only be 4-6 days. I just don't see this overwhelming evidence yet that says "it's definitely only going to be a few days". 

I think we need to pump the brakes a little. 

It’s based on very bright minds like Tom ( isotherm ) and HM and others. They simply don’t just rip and read eps like some do. Tom’s thoughts are on this forum. You are free to read then. 

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Speaking of the euro, who has access to the 18z?

eta: Would it be exactly 6 hours between the old ops (so 7pm?)

I believe the off hours of the euro ( 6z and 18z ) only go out to 90 hours. 

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s coming. Embrace it and call me your daddy. 

All you embrace are the eps. It’s a 5 day period of mild weather. Bid deal. But for a week you did a great job of doing what you do well. troll the snow weenies