Zach’s Pop

49 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The warm-up doesn't look impressive at all. Maybe a few days?

Only people who hump the eps or like trolling snow weenies thought the warm up was a torch and long lasting 

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s still a warm look on euro ensembles at the end. AK hole and -PNA. 

Lol you have been saying that for 7 days. 

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I think it depends exactly where you are in the Midwest, and I find the three month SOI matches only have some skill for the next month anyway. The final SOI value for November will be in tonight, but this is probably pretty close -

The composite is for a warm East, with all of the top years warm in the NE. 

SOI	Sept	Oct	Nov
1948	-7.1	6.6	4.2
1948	-7.1	6.6	4.2
1952	-1.8	3.5	0.4
1953	-13.0	-0.3	-2.7
1990	-7.3	-1.2	-5.0
Mean	-7.3	3.0	0.2
2018	-8.5	2.6	0.4

Here is what the CFS shows v. the composite SOI match - we'll see if the better models have anything remotely similar to the CFS in a few days. The SOI top-matches are pretty warm for NE/Upper Midwest, less of a signal elsewhere, and the SOI matches will never be perfect anyway. The CFS / SOI look isn't what I expect, but the SOI matches do tend to have some skill from testing in prior years, especially with the MJO forecast to make it coherently through phases 2-4 after early December.

 

 

 

Dude, we get it. The northeast will be warm. Biggest question is HOW MUCH FOR ALBUQUERQUE????? 

39 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Man, the GEFS and GEPS are both ugly at the end of there runs.

Yea I hate when it’s cold in December