Scud

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

yea it takes first Storm further south and east. High a little further West.

2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

FV-3 has a coastal transfer on 12/3-4 but mostly or all rain for us. Needs to get off the coast then maybe...

CMS has an interesting solution. Temps at this time are 0C at BWI. Could be the mother of all CADs

If anyone wants to watch 10-20 inches of powder with gust to 45 mph over next 48hrs, the show is about to start. Just search Teton Pass Wyoming cam. Fours views, updates every 2-3 minutes.

12z surface plots, old school.

The return flow system this Saturday has been mentioned. The latest ZR forcast, from NAM and GEM. The GFS has nothing. Something to look at while we suffer the midrange blues.

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I almost prefer that scenario as it eliminates the risk of us getting fringed, staring out the window at our cirrus clouds while we get to read about roads caving all over DC-Balt and the eastern shore.

Priceless...

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Here's a good example of the problem of an overactive Pac jet in today's Euro.  We have a storm coming toward us that's trying to transfer to the coast because of the -NAO and 50-50 low, but this monster s/w crashing into CA gives us no help.  Need more separation between those waves so that ridging over the Plains backs up about 500-700 miles toward Idaho/Nevada.  

 

From your lips to God's ears.......

That 12z Euro was as close as it could get. Good sign. GFS splits energy in two.  Fascinating.

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Which storm are you looking at?  There really isn't any chance for anything frozen around here through at least Day 7 on the 12z GFS

Looking at the Great Lakes Storm. It's track and mid level development mean everything for us.

Well don't loosen your seatbelt. Max snowfall band shifted 150 miles SE 96 hour 12z GFS, To northern Illinois.

00z run no help. Models likely to remain in flux till after Great Lakes Storm is passed.

Scud

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

If the coastal trof forms, it will be colder still.

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I think he is referring to the initial coastal at day 5. You can see the CAD set up farther to the south backed up against the Appalachians as the low is still down around the Florida panhandle. With the positioning of the high almost due east of us there really is no chance for CAD up through our region as the SE air rotating around the high is already scouring out our cold. By the time the low starts impacting our region around 108 hr the cold is long gone.

 

You are correct.

06z data showing a developing coastal trof with a CAD next system. 

2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Should gets some "pingers," in the metro, to herald in the WAA, per November, 15 degree rule

Scud

33 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And can we not say "likely" for something 12+ days out.  

I think so.

Scud

As an aside, we called it the five day lie.

23 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

That storms a mess, but it's going to verify as something frozen I think. 

What we know. A series of Arctic air masses move SE. The first will reach us Thursday,  but it's just a kiss. A warm core Storm will develope in strong warm air advection as, "kiss," moves off shore. Then, ridge developes rapidly over Rockies at 500mb. Then, the table is set.

Scud

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Likely?  Bold call

Likely would be 60% chance. Euro amplifies early, as does GEM, then strong clipper. This far out its simply a timing issue. You guys were having too much fun dancing in the, "Faties," with last event. Just had to join the conversation. 

Scud

06z GFS: looks like 500mb cyclone sets up just north of Great Lakes. Several short waves do the fugi-wa with amplification last run around 12/1. Winter Storm likely.

Scud

Fugi-wa is a Japanese term used to describe vortexes spinning around each other.

06z GFS: Artic kiss on Thursday looks colder,  -13c @850mb 18z.  

Scud