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Scud

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    Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Yea, this is a big deal.

    54 minutes ago, ILwxchr said:

    In the Quad Cities area for this event. My call for the cities is going to be 10-12"+ of snow with wind gusts possibly approaching 50 mph later tonight. I might have to drop south this evening if the HRRR is correct in showing 54 knot wind gusts (62 mph). IMBY I'm expecting around 7-9" with 50+ mph wind gusts. Totals won't make much of a difference though with that type of wind. I visited the NWS in Quad Cities this evening and they told me the criteria for blizzard warnings is very strict (which we know that), that call will be made later today once the storm starts to evolve toward the county warning area. Don't want to issue a high end product (Blizzard Warning is the most serious product they issue, per NWS), and have to revert to a lower product if it doesn't pan out. Public reception isn't very good when it comes to changing weather data. Although looking at the 06z data, its looking like it will be needed at some point (blizzard warnings). If this pans out, it will make my top 5 list for sure. Have fun everyone and be safe.

    Yea, this is a big deal.

    • Like 1

    November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    The GFS, CMS, FV3 are trying to break surface ridge in two now. This opens up Gulf moisture. Need parent high to remain strong like 00z Euro solution, that at least now sees a storm 12/1. Yesterday not enough energy and moisture, this morning too much. If the truth is in the middle we are good. Time for another cup, this is way cool.

    November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

    C.A.P.E

     

    Thank you for this.

    This is the exact understanding that I had from listening other's talk on here and reading a bit of simple stuff online.

    However, from the EPS 360 hr map that was posted above the below normal 500 dm anomalies stretched all the way from Alaska through the NWT/Nunavut, down through Ontario into the Eastern US.  So by my understanding, below normal 500 dm heights should equate to BN temps in all of those areas.  So BN heights in northern Canada should equal BN temps there according to the simplified model that I have in my head.  I would expect if Canada was being flooded with mild Pacific air i would see red anomalies up there. 

    Can you explain where I am going off the track?

    The warm air is not necessarily at the surface.

    November Discobs Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Tenman Johnson said:

    Not going to get much evapirational but still 2 degrees I think so if onset in by 7am that’s going to be 29-31 for a lot of the area.

    It's a trap. .02 of ice can break your neck. Be careful everyone.

    November/December Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

    A little quicker departure of the coming NE low which is causing suppression or just a little greater separation between the different energy coming through to our south could mean a world of difference. Could be a case where we get into the mid range or possibly even into the short range and something pops up as the models see even a half day timing difference between these different features. Not saying a block buster storm, because the overall pattern really doesn't support that at this time, but a minor or even somewhat modest event I don't think is off the table at this point.

    This is the part where Goldilocks meets the bears. The key.

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