Snowstorm5921

I’m here. The pattern hasn’t changed yet and I’m still only shoveling day 10+ digital snow but things do look much better than a few days ago.

Just awful.

Same theme. Awful pac. Close to something interesting day 9-10 but otherwise meh-tastic

Woof.

Fair enough. Guess the frustration has gotten the best of me. Will do more reading and less posting and hope for the best.

Yes, that’s right. That was a great stretch for sure, but one that will not happen again for a long time if i had to guess. I follow this forum more than the others because of the great analysis that goes on in here. Sucks that this winter fell apart after so much hope.

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor. Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on. Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you. you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help. I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them. Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that. No shame in admitting it and moving on.

Because it’s wrong

Besides the unicorn fantasy pattern the 6z GEFS shows, seems like guidance has come into better agreement (and not surprisingly moved toward the EPS). Have to hope February really delivers at this point.

It's actually pretty close except there is more -nao now... Wow...great find! Gives even more credence to them going forward

Could very well be right. I’d weigh it more than the GEFS that’s for sure.

Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want. I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse. We’ll see.

Why?

Definitely can’t toss the EPS especially when it’s been this consistent.

Easily. Just horrific with absolutely no hope.

The 12z EPS continue to look abysmal. Ugh.

You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year. So incredibly frustrating.

Agreed. Anything is better than the pattern we’re in now but the GEFS are far from exciting.

Yup. EPS definitely not making any move towards the GEFS that’s for sure. Quite a model battle!

Weeklies save February!

Out to day 12. Still awful.

I was just gonna say that’s one of the worst looks (if not the worst) that I’ve ever seen. Bury this awful winter and move on already.

The GFS may even be worse than the Euro now. Lol.

Trough after trough after trough digging in the west. As Bob said, the pac is absolutely destroying this winter.

Just popping in. I’m looking at the 18z GFS thus far and it’s definitely moving towards the Euro. Not what we wanted to see. I think January, and most likely winter, is toast. Pretty remarkable after nearly unanimous cold and snowy forecasts! happy new year all!