cut

' The gyro - you know that greek lunch time treat!!!'

Love what I see for next week - I have to try to contain myself. Every time I talk up the models I put the jinx on the threat, plus everyone looks at me sideways "the GF what? The yoro - wasn't that a car in the 80's from Yugoslavia?"

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Boxing Day did have it and lost it but it didn’t bring it back until 48 hours out or even less. It was 12z GFS on 12/24 that went nuts and HPC tossed it, lol…then it quickly became apparent at 18z that it had scored a coup as NAM went bonkers and then I think RGEM did (before 18z GFS confirmed the 12z run wasn’t a random model blip)

That's right - the NAM was thought of as the blind squirrel finding a nut.

19 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Apparently it wasn't, maybe I'm thinking 2015? This is according to Will, and we all know he has some kind of weather pack to Google implant in his brain. The man can recall events 30 years ago on a dime

I think Boxing Day did the ole 'early signal - lost the signal - then brought it back' like 72 hours out. That was a trend there for a while IIRC

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Wasn't 2013 like that also iirc

Was just thinking this same thing.

38 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

wouldn't be shocked at a spot 2"+ on the outer cape

I’m gonna check with parents in Orleans - looks like the jackpot zone

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. Wasn't great here on the CT coast but ended up with a solid 6 at the very end.

If I am not mistaken this has a better air mass. 

There was a pretty good amount of coastal flooding - I was at a beach in Southport that got inundated while I was there - came in very quickly.

36 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Zilch here still. Will see what tonight/tomorrow brings but not loving the radar look at all.

Zilch here as well - I can see how this stays north of us. Like 10 miles north - so close.

I can see how Trumbull comes out of this not getting much. We REAAALLLY need rain but I am getting a feeling on this one - we dry.

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has been too amplified all winter and gfs too flat 

Going to Tahoe on Tuesday for a week, both models have been trending better with that appendix looking trough over the Sierra. One model (I forget which) almost breaks off the western ridge and digs a low underneath about a week or so out.

2 minutes ago, cut said:

Euro is a WAR special.

I guess the 7 - 10 day period is not SE ridge now.

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I guess this is a good signal for overrunning? Each run the SE ridge is a little stronger.

Euro is a WAR special.

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

By the way ... I started a thread for the first of the two possible events spanning the next 10 days.   That being ~ Feb 8.  It's modeled as a low return on investment right now, but it has a higher upside should stronger relaying S/W mechanics get involved.  We don't have a have a lot of time.. maybe a one day's worth of cycles....eek. 

The one at mid month is also in there, but I don't like the models trying to re-introduce more gradient across the continent than we really need. That's likely to interfere negatively on phasing ...and wtf am I talking about at D9 ...but still -

I think we are collectively throwing shit at the wall and hoping for stickage!! What are your thoughts on the pattern for 4th week? I am going to Tahoe with my son - hoping Heavenly can get some refresher as they only have had 9 inches since the epicocity of December.

38.8 now in Trumbull - so going up - strange.

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You may get a brief frozen pulse during the evening commute. 

My commute is late (working on Oly and Superbowl so the hours are .... well ... challenging) so I should have treated roads when I leave Stamford.

36.9 in Trumbull - up from 36.7!! 

Ha - but DOWN from 42 at approx 5:30 AM

30 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Once again remote learning for a few days here and there is not going to impact kids.

 

 

 

How old are your kids? What grades?

Gone from 42 to 36 in about 2 hours in Trumbull.

Heading to Tahoe Feb 22 to March 1 - fingers crossed we can get at least a 10 day stretch like they had in December - 9 feet would be fine!!!

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How far north are those radar returns in SNE reaching the ground 

Snow in Trumbull 

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Ha I was there too, briefly

Rangers up 2-0

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Tough forecast!

If the first low comes a little closer the south coast is going to get hammered.

The amount of precip just south of LI is incredible.

 

Seriously - it's like 75 miles - which is like an ant fart in the scheme of things.

PRE - flakes In Stamford 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Told ya....CT wins again.

Seems to be the way!!!

Now talk of taint and dry slot?!?! What a change.