Ian

That's probably a good idea going forward... the warnings need to be further refined probably too. Still, you'd think after seeing all that carnage just a few weeks ago people would be extra heightened to this stuff right now. I wonder how many laypeople actually understand that survival gets extremely difficult on these high end events unless you take very serious precautions. In some cases it's probably just not available as well.

im pretty sure i'd make a post on my last 1% of iphone power even if it meant i couldnt call my family but eh. to me, the fact that a weather nerd was seemingly just sitting and talking about the couplet about to pass over him might tell a larger tale of this event. it's easy to imagine the worst, so i guess we'll just have to hope for the best for now.

yeah.. im sure most people would have a few things to do before coming back to amwx after something like this.

It was sort of a perfect storm though I guess an argument could be made that the cell was ongoing for quite a while before it got there even if the tornado seems to have energized right before hitting. Seems it hit at just about the worst time possible outside perhaps a weekday around the same time. Sure, some may have been sleeping later so who knows, but there would have been less people out and about overall. It's scary that with all the advances there is probably not a lot that can be done from stopping this from happening in the future.

True. I guess I'm saying I'm fine waiting rather than guessing.

well, it's different when you're keeping a spreadsheet vs looking for a small splinter of your home.

too much need for instant gratification these days.. honestly it doesnt really matter if it was an ef4 or an ef5.

they should be different based on timezone.

Hopefully like most early reports that sound similar.. Wrong.

death toll past 1974 now http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gwJTIxeUWZizZWADgvTCGRhnRpiA?docId=5431c50bec974f00bf5d68f67d174739

thx. might use on WaPo.

do u have a source for this?

It is rare but seemingly less rare these days and likely less rare going forward as population density increases. It doesn't really matter--it's terrible whether it's 200 or 1000. Was mostly just pointing out these abnormally high casualty incidents often follow a similar pattern of speculation.

not relevant. people thought there were 20-30k dead after Katrina. I remember stories of bodies filling beaches etc.. none of it ended up true. the japan quake people were saying "oh, it could be 100k dead". it's possible there are still more big caches of bodies to find but even as widespread as the damage is, it's not as widespread as a giant earthquake or something. it won't take as long to come to a tally other than people who are really badly injured dying from their injuries etc.

one thing that's pretty common in these high casualty events is there are some who think the toll will end up 10x higher than it does.

exactly.. it's kind of a silly idea that you'd be up in arms that you were "forced" to have a ~3,000 additional expense on a new home that you'd barely even notice in the course of financing options etc. though arguably your odds of taking a direct hit from a tornado even in tornado zones is less than taking damage from a hurricane or earthquake in places that have them.

gotta take over 4 more states since you only have 30?

Is AL not part of the southeast?

huh? that's what photographers do. photographers have won awards for taking pictures of people being killed in front of them.

Ahh yes I was confused on which image. I think I saved that whole group but just posted one frame.

heres the whole storm loop i think the nam loops in here are ones i made.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0558 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...NERN WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF MD AND DE...AND SRN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 052358Z - 060400Z INTENSIFYING SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 IN/HR ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS SRN PA...NERN WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF MD/DE AND SRN NJ. EJECTING UPPER S/W TROUGH OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH 06Z...WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY /PER STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OBSERVED IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS/ ALONG COASTAL FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. AREA VWP DATA ALONG WITH SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SLY 850-700 MB JET NOSING INTO VA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EWD DURING THE NIGHT...BECOMING POSITIONED OVER SRN NJ BY 06Z. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSE CONVERGENCE...WAA...AND DEEP LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS FAVORING STRONG UVV/S WITHIN A STEEP 5-8 KM LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 IN/HR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LOWEST 2-3 KM WILL RESIDE BETWEEN 0 TO -5 DEG C...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FALLING SNOW WILL BE HEAVY/WET DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AGGREGATION. IN ADDITION...AS SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS ALONG THE NC COAST...NELY WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. THIS WOULD FAVOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO A QUARTER MILE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ..GARNER.. 02/05/2010 ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS. ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 39877971 40457918 40817807 40777663 40217490 39487439 38797487 38427571 38347703 38757894 39277953 39877971