PB COLTS NECK NJ

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

The EPS members don't look that encouraging to me as of now.  Granted they can and will change in the days ahead but 12z 01/21 EPS show 6 out of 51 members giving CP 6"+  (3 of the six give 8-12" and the other 3 are right around 6) and the majority of the other 45 + the control give CP between a coating and 3" over the next 10 days (thru 12Z 1/31) that is not encouraging signal as of right now.

Like I said things are likely to change several times over the next week but taking this run of the EPS at face value not much to write home about.

The skill is not in the snow maps. 

The EPS looks good , it`s cold with some very deep members 

Just now, snowman19 said:

Agree here. No -NAO, no 50/50 low, no big arctic high in SE Canada and yea unfavorable ridge positioning in the west. The Atlantic is definitely a real big problem though. As some others mentioned, the lack of cold is a big issue

The cold is here , but is it cold either side of what I think is a big storm is a valid question.

It would be a dagger if the 15 days were well BN and you phased a moisture laden storm off the E/C and the coastal plain surged for 12 hours.

Long ways off tho. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All the available ensemble guidance indicates the potential for a phasing storm system around January 27-28th. This is one of the few times that the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS show this kind of potential in the 6-10 day range. We are still pretty far out in time for any specifics. But maybe we can use this for a dedicated new January storm thread. So the general January thread doesn’t get too crowded.

 

 

I love Grand Planetary waves but we will need some luck to keep the coast all snow.  I would like to see the ridge axis to be a little further east here so I can keep the center off A/C  , but check out the moisture feed for this one as well.

Big ticket storm for someone. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The ridging effects from the MJO are clear as day for the system on the 20th and the following one on the 24/25. 

There are other influences that will negate the warming effects of the typical phase 5/6 but when it comes down to the storms, it's a net negative. 

And yeah the 11-15 looks great but it has always looked great and in the grand scheme of things it makes no difference until that pattern can manifest itself in much shorter intervals.

Pattern looks great now , you are going to snow Friday morning , N and W of NYC are going to get a nice snow and sleet storm on Sunday before we at the coast rain , then you`re going to 10 degrees Monday morning with the 6 to 10 , not just the 11 to 15 looking cold.

Do not give up on the 24/25 , that`s got a chance in this pattern.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Again, you are arguing against an argument that I never made. Way too much of an angry vibe on these forums recently.

oh boy man , that`s not arguing or angry in the least.

You said you get it upset , I stated I couldn`t be happier the way things are evolving. 

Have a great day bro. 

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Dude..I get it that you are angry about how winter has turned out so far. You are aware there can be interactions between multiple factors that yield a hybrid pattern look. This is the first time that an MJO jumped so strongly from 8 to 4-5 in January. So we are seeing a lingering cold influence from the recent MJO 8. The 4-5 is associated with the stronger rigging ahead of the Jan 20 storm. So you get a mash up type pattern where the Arctic air rushes in behind the storm. This is one situation where general MJO composites won’t do the pattern justice due to its unique nature. Maybe if the MJO had gone through 8-2, the low would have tracked further south with less resistance from the ridge near the East Coast.

Chris , all due respect , my start date after seeing the DEC warm up has been Jan 10. Brian will attest that I def saw the warm up starting on Dec 13 and actually bet that those following 20 days were going to be 60 % AN , I lost to someone who`s forecast was 80 %.

But I was AN. 

Then I have been adamant about my period beginning on Jan 10th ( that went off without a hitch ) and lasting thru Feb 20.

I posted in here 2 weeks ago that the coldest anomalies were going to occur during the coldest part of the winter, honestly I could not be happier with the idea. 

My point about the MJO and how some in here are looking at it is it will be muted. I am looking at the overall pattern and not just 1 system.

You are going to snow on Friday morning with the same p4 that`s going to make it rain for a while on Sunday. 

P4 - P5 have ridging thru the lakes and on into the SE.  That`s not what`s coming . It gets thwarted by the blocking that going to take place as the strat has worked it`s way down. You already have a TPV in HB that will be forcing the trough through the lakes into the midsection and on east , completely opposite of what p4- p5 - p6 does.

I am saying that the MJO effects are muted in Jan and will not in any way mimic what you saw in December. 

Too many gauge the pattern by their backyard , I think you will see the MJO muted here. 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Again, it’s all how the MJO interacts with a variety of other factors. You seem to be arguing against something that was never said in the first place. Try backing off a little bit and read what was actually said. 

You responded to my post to Brian and Snoski who looked at the RIMM plots and decided to punt Jan. 

You then said the MJO has an " effect " here, in this case it`s 12 hours worth. The rest of period both before and after have no SE ridge that one would associate with a p4 or p5.

 I illustrated how the MJO in 4 - 5 will have minimal effect on the pattern. 

Maybe that will clear it up. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It bit the people in the bum who were saying it wouldn’t matter for the storm track this weekend.

Here is p4 and p5

You will be in p4 and p 5 in the 6 to 10 

Here are your 2m  in the 6 - 10 

Do you not see that the MJO is being overridden ? 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MJO is forecast to move back closer to phase 7 or 8 near the end of the month anyway. Combined with the other players on the field, you would expect to see the changes that are showing up on the current day 11-15. But I don’t like to jump ahead to day 11-15 before discussing what is right in front of us. Remember, subtle shifts in the 8-10 will show up 11-15. 

That`s day 6 - 10 .  The pattern flipped on the 10th evident by everyday since then being BN.  The only subtle shift I see now is the 1 to 2 inch coast , 2 to 4 inch snow that falls by Friday morning.

That was not seen 5 days ago. 

Followed by some front end snow and Ice a flip to rain and temps to 10 degrees 12 hours later.

What you will find is that very cold anomalies are going to set in well before the MJO gets back to 7 / 8.

That is because it`s being muted this time. 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Same difference for the impacts on our sensible weather. Notice how the MJO moving out into 4-5 shifted the pattern enough. The old run of the GEFS didn’t have the MJO going into 4-5 yet.

old run

New run

 

 

And look at it`s old 11 -15 

And it`s new 6 to 10 

Look at the new depth of the trough. 

And it`s response regardless of the MJO phase here.

The SSW effects  will be felt in the pattern and will mitigate the MJO. 

This is what is going to push the pattern , Go take a look at where the AO is headed as this is propagating down.

You guys are looking in the wrong direction and think a 1 off system and a 12 hour spike in temps is mitigating what is coming

You can look at the CFS / WEEKLIES / EPS / GEFS or the GFS operational and you are going to see the same 500 emerging 

Just now, bluewave said:

Bottom line is that it’s having enough impact when combined with the extra tropical pattern to force enough of a SE Ridge ahead of the storm on the 20th an perhaps beyond. 

There is no SE ridge , it`s a Western Atlantic Ridge and there`s a 12 hour warm up before the dam breaks.

The pull back is the EPO pops + and that`s why the trough is pulled back.

The large scale hemispheric pattern is forecast to be night day from the mid to late DEC period. 

The MJO can fly around the RIMM plots all they want the rest of the month , the impact will be minimal at best as you have a TPV sitting over you through the end of the month.

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. 

Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.

Hopefully now you guys can stop with the dumb RIMM plots. 

BTW day 10 EPS now has this 

As does the GEFS 

I know some of you saw the GFS 2m anomaly map and decided to air mail winter in , but this will likely have a better air mass in front of it as well as a - EPO this time ( this weekend the EPO pops + ) .

Some of you need to relax , you have no idea what`s coming  over the next 30 days do you ? 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We may see more snow Thursday night than over the weekend....

Probably , but since the 10th , we are BN and will stay BN the rest of the month when you average it all out.

There is too much weight put on the MJO in here for the last 10 days of the month.

We are not torching like we did in Dec. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. 

Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.

You are not going to get the same response this month.

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

If we get a cutter 1/20 and a big warm up end of next week, January will almost be certain to finish in the positive temp category...let's hope the MJO continues the trip through the cold phases after 4 and 5....a bit of a surprise for it to head right back to 4/5 after reaching the promise land of 8

The warm up you see this weekend is about 18 hours long.  The anomaly for the day is positive but the cold air rushes right back in.

The MJO is not going to give you the same warm response in late Jan that it did in Dec.  You are going to get 3 to 4 days of cold and 1 day cutter and than back to cold.

Not to mention that you will snow Thrs nite into Friday morning. 

You now have TPV sitting over H/B , the MJO will have to fight with that.  That was not present in Dec. 

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m still leaning towards that disturbance flattening somewhat.  The GFS has consistently seemed over amped with it

The EURO / RGEM / NAM like it , I think it comes thru the flow ok. 

BTW some of you will have snow on the ground come Friday morning.

The Euro has it even though the NAM is at the end of it`s envelope  it`s prob right , but I like this before the Sun / Mon debacle. 

The EPS at 2m 

You can pull up all 15 days on the EPS at 12z and you will see the following

1 -2 -3 - 7- 8- 9 - 12 - 13 - 14 - 15 very cold and BN 

4 - 5- 6   10 -11 , the EPS has 2 cutter in here and they are AN . 

Those 2 cutter skew the period but count , otherwise the source region has changed and you will see that when you total up the 15 days  . I get it if you don`t snow , nothing`s changed but according to energy traders what`s coming is being viewed as big deal. 

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Both the EURO/EPS are both AN on the 850mb T's and 500mb heights on each of the next 10 days.   It appears to be growing worse with time too.

1st of all they are not AN , second , you don`t know how to use  " 850 anomalies " in mid Jan.

If your N 850  on Jan 20 is - 8 and LP comes through , your 850`s can be - 1 ( A PLUS 7 ANOMALY ) and the surface would be 30 with a snowstorm.

Stop using 850 anomalies in here in the heart of winter , low level 2 meter temps determine if you are AN or BN.

To your 1st point , here`s day 5 -10 which includes a cutter. So it`s cold before and very cold after. 

Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

get back to me end of month. nothing in NAO region to hold the WAR and MJO a problem

Not what you said .....

You said there was a " big SE ridge and a trough in the west on the EPS in the long range "  , was that just your opinion ?