Vicarious

I just find it completely unprofessional for them to use such a small sample size and most people have 0 clue on how much variance is involved.

thanks for the response. A lot of things in weather seem to shrouded in mystery, or seems that way to amateur who finds this stuff interesting so I'm always thankful for information

I always wondered how they generate their in house models as well. Something like weather models are extremely demanding and actually really need to be done using quantum computers, NOAA just got a upgrade last year to their super computer which is cool to see. What I think probably happens is they have some sort of program that allows them to import some generated model. After it's imported they can then adjust certain things like wind direction and thats what you see them using. They can do this on their computers since they are't trying to predict the weather, they are basically telling it what they want.

I'm not much of a football expert so I'm sure someone could show me incorrect going through the plays but here is my 2 cents. Allen seems like he can get himself over worked up to start the game, he is obviously very passionate and that is a good thing(unlike a cam newton) but he will over throw balls early on. He gets better as the game goes on which shows up with how well he does in the 4th. He is still growing as a player and I'm almost positive that the more games he plays the more this will go away. Allen can hang on to the ball and try and do to much, which i think has been getting better but still a work in progress. I know the ravens have a good D line but are O-line was a complete joke. If he wasn't sacked or moved out from the pocket they still got to him while trying to complete a pass on what seemed like most plays. I was really hoping to see some adjustments after the half but if they made any I couldn't really tell watching on tv. The drops need to really really really stop already. They are 3rd in the league with most dropped passes and I'm pretty sure that was before the game. When the ball is going literally right through your hands it's simply not acceptable at this level. We badly need some more help with WR and we are so lucky that injuries haven't really been a thing but imagine Cole or Brown being out a few games. Defense did as they have all season and props to them for keeping the game close.

The biggest thing is having a locking center diff/transfer case. For pick-ups a locking rear doesn't really do all that much more then a limited slip rear end. Having a front locking diff isn't really something you can use for winter driving because steering is kind of next to impossible. For anyone that goes chasing I HIGHLY HIGHLY recommend a kinetic tow rope. It's kind of like a bungie cord allowing for a running start when your pulling/getting pulled out and really allows for smaller vehicles to pull out larger ones.

I don't have any experience with the transforce but I did have a set of bfgoodrich commercial T/A's and those were nice on the highway and I even had them on for a year of snow plowing and they did ok. Biggest thing i found was I had to go into 4 wheel drive more often then other tires. Locking rear diff is nice, I have a limited slip rear end on my f350 and it's pretty crazy how much traction you get when it engages. My buddy has a newer f350 that has a locking rear but he says he hasn't even used it lol

It's a rather large truck lol. Diesel f-350 long bed with 4 full doors which makes makes the thing a beast in the snow. Looking at those bridgestones and can see they aren't the best for snow. My cooper tires had a ton of road noise that I wasn't a fan of and come spring time I'm going to get a set of highway tires for the spring/summer/fall then throw my goodyear tires on for the winter/snow plowing

Well a snow tire is going to be the most ideal but I've had the chance to use several different tires on my f350 for snow plowing and found the goodyear all terrain adventure with kevlar to be a very good all season tire for the snow. I did have cooper discoverer at3 LT's on during the nov 2014 storm and the only time i got stuck was after falling asleep in my front yard lol(I did have 500 pounds of sand and a external 50 gal diesel tank so I had some good weight on top of my trucks 8500 pounds+1000pounds for snow plow).

I was out snow plowing in 2014 and when I was plowing a parking lot around Clinton and Rossler I was afraid of hitting the building on the one side because I could barely see my plow let alone anything in front of it.

Last picture was my truck stuck in my front yard. I'd been out plowing for 36 hours or so and I had to plow a spot to park my truck. I ended up falling asleep trying to make a spot in the front yard and said F it. Went and got some sleep and was lucky enough to have a buddy come and pull me out using my kinetic tow rope I bought just before the storm. For anyone who storm chases I would highly recommend getting a kinetic recovery rope.

As everyone knows the % is going to change a ton based on location and a 10 season sample size is way to small to use. The airport isn't in a great area even compared to Southern Cheektowaga, see nov storm totals 5 years ago compared to union and William area in cheektowaga

Springville does really well. My friend had a house in West Falls which is close to East Aurora and would get a ton of snow as well.

Even with a almost completely frozen lake you can still get some good lake effect snow. Here is a study done about it https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1

These noaa erie ice maps always seem to be way off when compared to satellite views(when possible)

I completely agree. There are a lot of people not from the area traveling on the 90 that aren't prepared to deal with the weather or aren't used to driving in bad conditions.

It's just my personal opinion but I think they are basically pressured into going higher with amounts after they missed that blizzard which caused that huge accident on the 90 that at least 1 died in

When I go to the F1 race I'll make sure to. Have always wanted to see Montreal so pretty excited to finally be taking the trip.

Yea I can't imagine the mess a city like Toronto would be. Buffalo is a big enough shit show with roads as it is.

great pics, I would of thought there would be some ice by the shore

Thanks for finding that. I couldn't remember the exact details. That link I posted is a really good read on ice coverage and lake effect off Erie, here is the link https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1

wasn't it just last year we had that surprise event that NWS issued a blizzard warning for? They didn't think the lake could support anything with the ice cover and only issued a squall warning at first just found this which seems like a interesting read https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2007MWR2310.1

I'm in Cheektowaga and half a mile from West Seneca and Buffalo(Harlem and William St. area) and I personally would consider the airport part of the town as northern Erie. Lake effect events are so rare for grand island and tonawanda that it's not really a drought but more like the expectation.

situations like this are perfect to chase. Hardly anyone on the road and you aren't going to be in anyone's way . I personally don't like it when people are out chasing and adding to gridlock which isn't a issue today.I'd suffer through work because it doesn't get much better

Watch has been updated for all of Erie county

when it gets that cold out that almost impossible to clean up the roads. Plows get the majority off snow and then the salt gets the rest but when it's that cold the salts efficiency is so low they can't really do anything but major roads.