NEG NAO

I thought yesterday that the shift south in some models was overdone

Euro AI

But Bernie thinks snow will reach all of New England - this is from this morning

this event is not set in stone yet 4 days out - the main player in this event is the HP to the north if that is weaker than progged and starts moving east or north the precip shield will be further north and Tuesday night looks like an icing event here

wind direction in NJ will determine the high temps - even if any east wind develops along the coast in NJ there will be a wide range of temps

I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?

I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east

how many years have you been a hobbyist ?

GEFS still a SECS for the metro

stlll a SECS for the immediate metro and points north and west

agreed - but of course some folks here are ready to totally write off Mondays potential after one model run 5 days out

No model is King anymore - its just that "Every Dog has its day" and the GFS just had its day.

always go with the hot hand - which is the GFS lately until proven otherwise

March to come in like a LION ! GFS has been showing this run after run the last few days and the Metro is right in the middle of the precip field

especially if a subway line runs underneath that street