NEG NAO

On February 28 with all signs pointing to more arctic air making its way down here after the warmup because of the polar vortex split and the MJO in 7 - 8 or 1 with an active pattern I think March ends up with above normal snowfall and so does April - wouldn't be surprised if there is another major east coast storm

Winter is not over yet IMO - enjoy the next couple of weeks of moderating temps over all - BUT the Polar Vortex split is going to cause winter to return and all that arctic air in Canada to return during the second half of March and maybe into April and I would bet there are at least a couple of snowstorms left in this winter in the Metro

I thought yesterday that the shift south in some models was overdone

Euro AI

this event is not set in stone yet 4 days out - the main player in this event is the HP to the north if that is weaker than progged and starts moving east or north the precip shield will be further north and Tuesday night looks like an icing event here

wind direction in NJ will determine the high temps - even if any east wind develops along the coast in NJ there will be a wide range of temps

I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?

I think the models are having trouble right now trying to determine exactly how far south the cold air will settle and stall - this will determine the boundary zone where the LP will move west to east

how many years have you been a hobbyist ?

GEFS still a SECS for the metro

stlll a SECS for the immediate metro and points north and west

agreed - but of course some folks here are ready to totally write off Mondays potential after one model run 5 days out

No model is King anymore - its just that "Every Dog has its day" and the GFS just had its day.

always go with the hot hand - which is the GFS lately until proven otherwise

March to come in like a LION ! GFS has been showing this run after run the last few days and the Metro is right in the middle of the precip field