NEG NAO

I would be concerned that the frozen amount is overdone and in reality some of that is a mix or rain - to get 100 % snow down there any time of the year is rare

thats a work of art - and time is still on our side

seems reasonable to question it

like you said earlier - its late in the game for big snows in south jersey and those ridiculous amounts on the coastal Del Marva - will never verify

and the Euro snowhole over the region makes no sense either 2 runs in a row GFS is overdone in many areas and the Euro is underdone IMO

Mainstream media is going to have a field day with this the GFS their favorite model

18Z GFS gives most of the immediate NYC Warning Level Snows - lets leave it at that one model - one run 4 -5 days out onto ensembles then 0Z runs

we know that won't verify

yeah that strung out northern junk getting in the way - no phase - flat etc. etc, and the ridge too far east in the Rockies

so now casting begins Friday watching satellite- radars surface reports out west et. etc and then points east

EURO has been alone and wrong before - and usually comes on board late in the game sometimes- NWS has been relying on the NBM alot lately

read this Upton AFD -the 12Z models started trending away from the EURO - I don't think the 12Z EURO received all the new data because of that continued snowhole it showed at 0Z is still there at 12Z AFD from KOKX

and all the players are not on the field yet and have not been sampled properly the southern energy doesn't enter the west coast till tomorrow morning