BNAwx

Light snow just started again in my neck of the woods.  Based on radar trends, maybe another 1/2 inch?

Been pouring the snow here just east of Nashville for close to an hour now.  Hopefully we’ll get under some of those returns coming in from the SW as well.

Some pretty fat flakes coming down now and starting to pick up on intensity.

Yeah, finally getting some moderate snow here.  Hopefully I'll get enough to insulate the sleet pack....

People have no common sense.  When it’s below freezing and there’s stuff falling from the sky, you slow the ef down.

Stepped outside and the roads in my subdivision are already like a skating rink.  Lots of freezing drizzle has been falling with a little bit of sleet mixed in.

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run. 

Yeah.  It's been locked in for days.  Right or wrong it's waffled less than about any other model.  Hopefully it's not on crack.

3 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Yep, you can see seasonal snowfall through a couple days ago. We have some holes to fill in:

I'm in one of those whiteout spaces in Davidson Co.  Hopefully that'll change a little by next week.

Wouldn't be surprised to see OHX issue a WSW tomorrow if the rest of the 0z models come in favorably.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Almost no hits from Jackson to BNA as far as I can tell on 0z

Here are the two means:

0z

 

12z

Awesome.  Thanks!  Hopefully we'll see the eastward trend continue.

49 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

EPS snow members for the early next week storm:

 

 

Holston...can you tell how these ensemble members compare to the 0z run?  Just curious to see if they trended slightly east as well.

39 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

This thing right here is a very good investment, I highly recommend it.  Currently $121 on Amazon.

You've got AC and DC outlets, USB port, a light, a blower upper, and can jump start your car.  The last power outage we had, I plugged two AC floor lamps into it for a half hour and it still read 100% charge.  I'd imagine you could keep your family's phones charged for over a week if need be.

Edit:  I will add, that if you buy one of these, keep it charged up.  If you use it and it gets drained and stays that way, it will ruin the battery.

https://www.amazon.com/Schumacher-SJ1332-Jump-Starter/dp/B07892JQ1Q/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?dchild=1&keywords=Schumacher+SJ1332+1200+Amp+12V&qid=1613002355&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUExVDFFVVJWUDNVRFhZJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwNTU2ODAxMlNBVDUwUVRPWDhYWCZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUExMDA4OTYxMk9KMUpQNDNINEFTUyZ3aWRnZXROYW1lPXNwX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU=

That looks like my boom box from 1985.

Unfortunately, like most systems this winter, I don’t think we’ll get a good consensus until about 3 days before the even so I’m sure we’ll see more waffles over the next couple of days.  I can see justification for more of a NW solution as well as a more southerly/easterly track.

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Should of added what tnweathernut mentioned irt less blocking now. Best we can hope for is MJO propagation to ph. 8. 

True.  That's one factor that can definitely point to a more NW track.  Frankly, I'm about 50/50 with this whole setup.   Anthony Masiello had a good tweet recently about the movement of the TPV as well that might shed a little more light on how the models might progress.  Who knows....?

8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I am not so sure on this.  It seems we have had GREAT blocking for a while now, but at the time when the air is coldest our blocking vanishes.  The storms next week may well correct north and/or west.  I still think middle and especially west Tennessee have a LOT of winter coming at them the next 7-10 days.  Hope it provides a memorable period for you guys out that way.....

I'm not so sure the blocking has vanished or will vanish at the timeframe we're looking at (2/15 - 2/17).  Again, I could be wrong.  I'll be anxious to see where it ultimately ends up.  

3 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

And this sentiment has not changed much....great looking 12z gfs for Memphis 

It could be right but I still believe these models will correct south and East somewhat as we get closer to the event.  That’s been the seasonal trend and I’ll rise with it until it bucks me off.  LOL!

16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Annnddddd at our hour of dire need, the GFS v16 has returned:

 

a gif of all three systems we've been talking about, since it has been so long since we've had access to its data. 

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Posted by Alan Gerard on Twitter..excellent example of how globals near surface resolution don't allow them to see shallow level cold that well.

Great example.  And depending how cold the upper levels are, that could mean the difference between ice, sleet or snow...or just plain rain.

Interesting tweet from Anthony Masiello this morning....

I also like to keep in mind the seasonal trend.  Thanks to the -NAO, the SER has been beaten back after showing up strongly on modeling in long lead times.   I think persistence is the key here.  I guess "dance with the one that brung ya'" is my way of looking at it. 

Just now, PowellVolz said:

You’re in that enhancement area. How hard is it coming down?


.

It’s still a slight mix but it’s coming down at a moderate clip.  Might get a coating if we can hold on for a bit longer.  I’ll consider that a win so far this year...

Biggest flakes I’ve seen in quite a while...

Finally got some fatties coming down in Hermitage, TN!

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Okay, who's the wise ass that overlayed Siberia's snowfall map over the eastern US

Can you imagine what the old DGEX would look like?  

9 minutes ago, CG2 said:

It is Friday night and time to enjoy this map...take a look at the max on this map.