DownpourDave

TSPL, wow

Not that it matters at all at this point but the PDO is now positive albeit barely

On 2/1/2025 at 8:36 AM, DownpourDave said:

Be careful out there. Tested positive for FLU A. Hit me like a ton of bricks. 

According to CdC high prevalence in New England.

 

I am back. Touch and go for a hot minute, Fever peaked at 103 but avoided the hospital(mostly because ambulance prices are insane).

Be careful out there. Tested positive for FLU A. Hit me like a ton of bricks. 

According to CdC high prevalence in New England.

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think the PDO is responding more to the Nino-like flow in the NPac than the other way around. Now what is driving that is beyond my pay grade.

I was gonna say, can’t be normal to have the PDO flip like this in a Nina is it? Anyways that Nino like flow in the NPac looks to continue according to the models. 
 

Also regardless of the cause, the PDO flipping like this can’t be a bad thing. 

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Looking at the models and what is forecast in the Pacific, I would not be shocked to see this rise continue and for the PDO to outright flip to positive. 

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fantabulous? 

The word was “mint”

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

PDO is now “only” -1

I was hoping we get there by Jan 1st so this is better than I expected. I know PSU said getting above that number puts the better analogs in play.

On 12/12/2024 at 8:12 PM, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

Lets get this at -1.00 by January 1st

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it can get above -1 for Winter we bring some better cold neutral and weak Nina analogs into play.  The snowier months in those parameters were above -1. Jan-Mar 2014 averaged about -.3. March 2018 was -.8. 2006 was slightly positive. 1996 was +1.  January 2022 is one of the only examples of a snowy month with a severely -pdo so it’s not impossible but most of our snowy months come with a pdo above -1. 
 

however we still have a long way to go, yea it’s rising. But it’s coming off a record low it’s still very negative by any other standard and it would be unprecedented to go from -3.5 in the fall to near neutral by winter. That’s the main reason I didn’t include 2014 in my analogs. 

You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

Credit to @brooklynwx99

A visual representing the change in that chart.

SSTA Change

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The fog was so thick last night we actually have some rime on the trees. 

Driving to the airport at 3 am this morning….. at times driving was very hazardous less than 100 feet visibility in front of me at times… so yes it was very thick 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The s/w is zonked this run

Seems like such an outlier from just the 12z run.  Initialization error? Seems odd

On 10/19/2024 at 12:20 PM, Roger Smith said:

Oscar brings count to 15/10/4, edit in progress. 

Do you consider post-season upgrades?  Unlikely event Oscar gets upgraded to cat 3 months later 

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

898.6 mb extrapolated

With a 70knot wind…. They missed the center 

MPI for where Milton is, is around 890-900mb.

25 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

North Point Blvd right near Kane is flooded out at the moment looks like

Source? 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

http://www.iadasos.org/IAD/index.html

I’ll await for confirmation from NWS. They will send out a climate report soon.

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Possible that George BM was looking at the IAD ASOS live page. Might have gone up and then back down. 

Do you have a link to that?

1 hour ago, George BM said:

IAD has hit 101F. First time since 2012.

It didn’t unless there is something I am missing.

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Any way to squeeze up to around a 102 for Dulles? 

It is only just hitting 100, possible but not likely. Guessing it maxes at 101

11 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Definitely making a run at a 5 right now.

It probably already is, multiple different data points support cat 5. Awaiting for NHC confirmation