GunBlade

9 minutes ago, Grayman said:

@GunBlade where can you see current 850 line ? 42/36 here in Rockingham NC 

This link. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

40/36 humidity 85 in Matthews. Doesn’t sound great but the Temp DP and Humidity have been steadily dropping throughout the night and morning even with moisture moving in so there’s plenty of cooling to come.  And the 850 line has dropped mostly through Union County now as well. 

Take the GFS qpf and the NAM warm nose and that’s your storm.  NAM has sniffed out more than enough warm noses in my area over the years for me to never underestimate it. I’ve also seen it ramp up QPF like crazy right up to the storm and then verify with half what was modeled. 

Was in office with blinds closed, walked out and it’s snowing good in Matthews.  Welcomed surprise!

Wet bulb temp is right around 32 here in Matthews if moisture holds together and doesn’t warm anymore. 

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

The GFS is closer than you’d think to a snowier solution along 40. HKY/INT/GSO is just about a degree away from a potentially wet snow. That is well within error range.

Feels like we always error to a degree warmer than shown and end with 33/34 rain...

It’s basically an EF4 tornado with gusts into EF5, yet is bigger than many states in the country.....unreal. 

23 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

We used to get August cool spells with highs in the 70s every year.


.

That didn’t work out so well for us last year.  We got lows into the 50’s in august and not again until Mid October.... :/ Would love to not see that repeat again.  

Hard to tell in pics but huge flakes and sticking to many surfaces. 

Been snowing heavily in Stallings.  Between Matthews and Indian trail. 

Big heavy wet snow in Matthews.  This storm is baffling to me. 

31 minutes ago, griteater said:

Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest.  The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work. 

And therein lies the problem with this area. 

Sure, the maybe storm Tue/Wed would be easier than a phase etc...but phases and coastal bombs are how we get the big snow here. 

Id rather have cold air here and hope for the gulf sliders going up the east coast.  Anything in between is extra and helps it feel like winter. 

If there’s going to be a storm before the end of the month I wouldn’t be surprised if some models start consistently hinting at one in the next 3-5 days.  The storm out west is just coming on shore and will be a big player in the changes to come.  Let that tear things up for a few days and then see where we stand.  Not surprising the models are all over the place with that going on.  

HRRR still way off on current temps.  RGEM looks much better and has the 32 degree line basically right at Meck/Union border through the whole storm.  Guess I will see what we wake up to in the morning. 

31/31 in Matthews. 

DP and Humidity both have dropped.  Was at 32/29/88 now 32/28/86

2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

I meant where do you find individual noaa stations....I’m looking now

Oh sorry.  I’ve had that bookmarked forever from someone else posting it years ago.  

2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

How do you find those?

Those all came from the link I provided except WB.  I’m lazy and just type it into a calculator from a google search. And I just reimaged my computer so I’m also too lazy to go upstairs and look at my weather station reporting since it’s not on my phone. 

Crazy seeing other temps.  It’s 33/28/82 here in Matthews, from the Matthews NOAA station.  That’s a 31.1 WB...so not sure what’s going to happen here lol  

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F2338&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

My intuition from living here my whole life is that whatever model doesn’t show wintry precip for my area will be the one that’s correct. Every event has been so marginal for years that I’ve forgotten what it’s like to just get a good snow with no sleet or ZR mixed in.  And I’ve had more cold rains at 33 than I care to count but looks like we can tally another one up after this storm. 

Two things happen in almost every storm here. 

1. CAD over performs

2. Warm nose over performs

Same thing happened here last storm.  Got way less snow (almost none) than modeled and much more ice than modeled, albeit just shy of being enough to cause major issues luckily, but it was never really modeled as a big ice storm for me. 

Would not be surprised at all to see the CAD over perform again and there be more ice.  Question is how much ice though. 

Sad that we have more slush on the road from this ULL already than we did the whole storm prior. :/

Snow and sleet in Stallings south of CLT.  Got a dusting on tables and starting to on grass and mulch. 

8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

RGEM looks like it’s gonna dump half a foot just west of Charlotte.

Nothing better than a well performing ULL.  Some of the best 1-2 hours of snow in some of those I’ve ever seen.