Newman

I'm just gonna stop talking and let the models sort themselves out lol. Pattern recognition > models and right now the models are struggling mightily. If the latest GFS is right, we head into a fairly classic -EPO pattern heading into December. 

I'd like to reiterate what I did way back before the winter started - A favorable Pacific is almost always more welcomed than a favorable Atlantic.

Yeah I think we might actually torch the first week of December. The blocking diminishes, Pacific is hostile, and the SE ridge kicks up. But I think after a pattern reset we SHOULD be back in business by December 12th and on.

This is such a volatile pattern coming up. I wouldn't take any OP runs at face value until under 144 hours. There's going to be many chances for snow to start December but it's almost a guarantee that we'll strike out on most. This could be a December 2010 type pattern where we're waiting and waiting and then boom the big one shows up in the medium to short range.

51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

PAC looks good, Arctic looks good, Atlantic is blah. The brief NAO tank that is being advertised for the last week in Nov is looking more and more transient with the Atl side rolling over on Itself as December begins with a progressive look in the East. Maybe we can time something right for a quick hitter during the period you posted? Or maybe we get an Archambault system last week of Nov as NAO flips from neg to positive? The cold air shouldn't be a major issue based on these progs. We could certainly have worse looks. First things first tho, I like the Nov 25-30 period for a threat. 

I agree that the first time period to watch is the 25-30th. The look is fairly progressive heading into December with the high latitude blocking suppressing everything, but the split flow pattern looks really good. At this time I think our biggest worry heading into December would be a SE or Mid-Atlantic snow storm rather than a storm that cuts. You can see the models the past recent runs have begun to step away from the cutter solutions because, well, basic physics! You can't cut a storm into a strong block as advertised. Verbatim, the last week of November and December as you mentioned could feature an Archambault event with a classic looking -NAO to a neutral/positive NAO. Good times ahead.

Way-out-there GEFS map showing the potential heading into December.

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How did Carbon County do with this storm?  Talking about places like Jim Thorpe, Lehighton, Albrightsville, Lake Harmony, Hazleton, etc.?

 

Most areas you mentioned picked up around 10".

22 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Nice having power back isn't it!

Yeah you don't realize how much you need it until you lose it, especially for 8 hours like I did. Although I've lost power for 3 days before so it could be worse!

Look out towards the end of November and early December. Many signals pointing to a quick start to winter!

And power has finally been restored. Was off since 7 this morning. Picked up an inch or so from the back end this morning so going with final tally of 8".

30 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

That might be a little harsh, imo. More of a group responsibility - there are probably people out there who shouldn't drive in snow, which doesn't help. The snow came down hard and with the latent ground heat melting the bottom layer with all that compression on top, you get effectively a sheet of ice. December 8th 2013 was a lot like this storm - 1st snow of the season, came down hard, forecast was underdone, and people in general were unprepared. With all the cars on the road and gridlocked it's hard for plows and salt trucks to make a difference. If you read people like HM on Twitter you might have been aware of the potential for heavy snow in the mid day to afternoon, but even with that, it's just potential, it's the weather. So I can imagine PennDOT might have been under prepared, but so were many others, and even then I'm not sure how you overcome 2" an hour rates with roads packed with traffic in the middle of the day. Glad you made it home okay!

Most people are going to blame the forecasters in this situation because, well, they got it completely wrong! BUT, this was such a volatile system where the mid-levels were razor sharp between snow and sleet. Not to mention the CAD overperformed, which is often the case. AND snow ratios were no where near 8:1 but more like 10-12:1 with the crazy snow growth and frontogenesis. For many of us in the NW burbs it was a matter of being a couple inches off. For those down towards Philly the bust was even bigger. It should be a storm that many of us learn from.

Eh. I don't think Reading picked up 8" but who knows. Probably a measurement in the grass so around 7-7.5" would sound right. I measured 7" here before compaction started. Probably down to 6.5" at this point.

Glad I'm not out there.

Here comes the dry slot and drizzle. Freezing drizzle for those further NW.

Almost completely sleet now.

3 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Winter storm warning issued 4-7” 

How much you got so far? I've got right around 6".

1 minute ago, penndotguy said:

27  with moderate snow 5.5” in West Lawn, updated forecast was 3-6 I think we’ll pass that. 

Same here moderate snow, heavy at times and right around 5.25-5.5". We may get to 7".

I just noticed the NWS upped Berks and Lehigh counties to 3-6".

At 11:30 my temperature was 31F, now at 2:30 it's 26F. 

Wow now back to heavy snow after a quick period of sleet/snow mix. 

Just now, Birds~69 said:

You're probably correct....It's almost back to all snow. Big flakes..

You can see it pretty nicely on the Correlation Coefficient. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-24

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Hold the phone...big ass flakes starting to mix back in.

27F

Looks like a quick moving "bubble" of warmer air aloft is coming through with sleet.

Yep those oranges mean business on radar. Puking heavy snow.

Also, here is a CC radar to track the sleet line:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-24

Still moderate snow. Will probably be heavy once these oranges get here!

Just now, KamuSnow said:

Yeah, my point and click said an inch or less. I don't mind, lol. Just measured 2.6". It's hard to see, but in this pic there is the beginnings of a November snow pile . Leaves included!

Dude that's incredible. I always get pumped with positive busts lol.