Newman

Haven't seen an eye this pretty since Dorian last year

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

9 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

72 / DP 69....can't wait till the cold front rolls through hopefully w/some storms. Late week and weekend look/will feel great.

Yes it will! This weekend is going to be fantastic

Chilly start to October? The trough in the east doesn't look too transient to be honest, it looks to stay around for a bit...

Should mention KRDG recorded a daily record low minimum of 38 yesterday

Yeah no record lows will be set tonight probably, but forecast lows of 39/40 while the records are 36/37 is impressive. Much below normal

3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

LOL

As a sidenote, Wilfred just appeared in the eastern Atlantic so whoever blows up enough to get a name next (probably TD-22 in the GOM), it will be "Alpha".  It is 2005 redux.

Just got Sub-tropical storm Alpha form off Portugal lol. The gulf storm looks like it'll be Beta...

Can't wait to wake up in the low 40s Sunday

Low of 53 tonight with a dew point of 48? Yes please, bring on Fall

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop from northern
   Virginia into northern Maryland and southeast Pennsylvania by
   21-22Z. A few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated
   tornadoes will be the main threats. A tornado watch will likely be
   needed prior to 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a progressive vorticity maximum was
   situated over southwestern PA and will continue east into the Middle
   Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. A band of
   low-topped convection has already developed in association with this
   feature extending into northern WV where instability is limited.
   Farther downstream, a lee trough resides just east of the central
   and southern Appalachian mountains. East of this feature
   temperatures have warmed to the upper 80s F with dewpoints in the
   low to mid 70s contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite very
   weak mid-level lapse rates resulting from warm temperatures aloft.
   As the corridor of deeper ascent attending the shortwave trough
   continues east and begins to overtake the western edge of the moist
   warm sector, additional storms will likely develop from northern VA
   into southeast PA. Winds in the 850-500 mb layer will undergo a
   modest increase with approach of the impulse, resulting in 35-40 kt
   effective bulk shear and 100-200 m2/s2 storm relative helicity. This
   environment should be sufficient for some organized storm structures
   including a few supercells capable of locally strong to damaging
   gusts and a couple of tornadoes through early evening.

Parts of the first half of September look to be below normal temps finally. Can we buy a similar look in 3-4 months?

Enhanced risk of severe wind tomorrow

11:30 AM CDT Sun Aug 23
Location: 25.0°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 

Power is out. Still raining. My station is down now but definitely over 4" of rain. Started the day slow but made it up in a hurry

Heavy driving rain. Worst of the storm occurring right now

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Always love reading your analysis, even if half of it goes over my head. Reminds me of sitting in a higher level lecture in college. While at Millersville University, I took a few Met courses which allowed me to sit in on Eric Horst and Dr. John Scala's weather discussions. I miss those days...

Currently a Met major at Millersville myself, Horst is a local legend. Knows his stuff very well.

Back on topic, will be exciting to read through this sub-forum later. Hoping y'all have fun.

11 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

wind picking up out here 

Some good flooding occurring here too. Dumping rain.

Tornado warning as far north as the poconos now. Lots of storms spinning right now! 

Radar confirmed tornado heading into southern chester county....

Heavy rain beginning to spread into the area. Tornadoes are going to be LIKELY across Jersey and maybe as far west as Philly. That tail across the ocean is fierce. Out this way, I'm dead smack in the middle of the high risk for excessive rainfall

Yeah confirmed tornadoes across Delaware. Those storms are only going to rotate into a more primed environment across the Jersey and NYC areas.

That tornado watch has high risk and 70% probs of at least 2 or more tornadoes within the watch box. Don't see that often.

Those heavier bands look like they are about to pivot west into my area soon, not much in the way of heavy rain yet. Storm is booking as expected

The speed of this thing might be what saves us from even worse flooding. It'll be booking, so a quick soaking is likely. 2-4" likely, pockets of more. Flooding is likely too, just the speed will limit anything too severe I think. We shall see

Yeah Harrisburg has an average temperature of 81.8 this month. That's on pace for the hottest July on record.