Newman

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage.

IMO, the NAM 500mb changes were not miniscule or a "tick". It appears small, but just look at how much more those heights back into the coast from 6z. Plus the trough is trying to dig deeper as well. It's not much, you're right. But considering the NAM was well on the east side of guidance, all I was looking for was for it to come back west. Which it did.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see a tick at best not a screaming 

Ticks mean everything at this range. Especially with this CCB

NAM should come further west this run. Everything at 500mb at 15 hours screams it will

Dry out there, any "snow" the radar was showing over my area so far this morning has been virga.

I can't go back to sleep, I think I'm gonna head back home today considering class is almost guaranteed to move virtual for Monday/Tuesday. I think Lanco will get 12+, But Berks and home has increasing chances of this being 20+"

7 hours ago, Newman said:

Just loop the past 3 runs of both the NAM and RGEM at 500mb. I'm not posting the GIF's but:

1.) The RGEM is becoming LESS amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough.

2.) The NAM is becoming MORE amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough.

 

Middle ground consensus? It was clear the RGEM shifted NE. It was also clear the NAM came back west (and maybe could have even more). Jackpot is gonna be east of where the RGEM has it, west of where the NAM has it. Middle ground for everyone. Everyone wins. Goodnight

Bump

Just loop the past 3 runs of both the NAM and RGEM at 500mb. I'm not posting the GIF's but:

1.) The RGEM is becoming LESS amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough.

2.) The NAM is becoming MORE amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough.

Middle ground consensus? It was clear the RGEM shifted NE. It was also clear the NAM came back west (and maybe could have even more). Jackpot is gonna be east of where the RGEM has it, west of where the NAM has it. Middle ground for everyone. Everyone wins. Goodnight

1 minute ago, Animal said:

Diamonds and strong hands.  Paper hands fold to nam. Ride hard rgem &! Don’t fold amc stock.

Lay off Wallstreetbets my man lol

RGEM went NE with a less amplified trough. NAM came back west with a more amplified trough/better PVA orientation. I also think the NAM's precip expansion is perhaps a bit wonky. But regardless, maybe we're heading towards a middle ground consensus? Either way, the only trend I can see happening from here in is NE.

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Kuchera maps rarely verify, stop using them. 3' is still nothing to sneeze at though.

10:1 still puts down 50"+ in Berks Lehigh

At least it's fun to look at

RGEM is 50+" over Berks and Lehigh. Too bad it admittedly did shift NE closer to the NAM evident with 500mb changes.

3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

As psuhoffman noted in MA forum, NAM is chasing the convection with the low.  It’s wrong.  We’ve seen this movie before

Clear trend here at 500mb compared to 18z. Look at the sharper trough and better oriented PVA into the region. A.k.a "this should've came even further west".

NAM came back west with the low, still absolutely sucks for EPA despite a sharper 500mb trough and PVA better angled into the region. Improvement I guess? Next...

Should be snowing for most with the WAA induced precip by 2-4pm tomorrow

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, anything can still happen. Nobody is in the clear yet and inevitably somebody is going to get screwed. Hoping for the best for this sub, braced for the worst.

Me too, I would love to see an entire SE PA jackpot and spread the love to all in this sub. But I have an uneasy feeling about this one still. Maybe it's PTSD from the past, maybe it's a legit concern

FWIW, 21z SREFS are not that impressive across the area (with regards to other guidance), they're favoring northeastern areas like NYC and SNE. KPHL mean of ~6.5". KRDG ~ 8.5". KABE ~ 9.0"

I'm still holding my breath here. I've seen these before, we're still a long way out until the coastal even ramps up, 1.5-2 days away (Monday afternoon/evening)

I'm hoping the CCB doesn't set up so Lancaster gets screwed but Berks is in the jack. I already told my dad to keep those measurements at home true and honest lol

GFS totals:

RGEM is again a crusher for NW folk. These last minute Miller B swings are gonna drive some (me) crazy