Newman

7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Oh yea that storm we are getting 20”+ reality a few sprinkles sun poking out later in the day total accumulation zero!!  That was a Miller B set up.  Didn’t a meteorologist lose his job on that one? 

Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001. 

I don't think this will be a March 01 redux, but a repeat of December 2020 possibly. When the heaviest totals were over us for awhile then they shifted all north but we still all got 6-10" in.

6z Euro holds serve for those wondering. 12-16" widespread

Total Euro snow

Euro coming in so so good

UKMET LOL

Now what

Late in the game so ensembles don't mean too much I know, but GEFS look great. So no worries here

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Para is 7-14" widespread it looks like

Been very consistent that's for sure:

This GFS run is about to be insane, oh my gosh

Crushed

Just now, Birds~69 said:

?????????...WTF?

Don't ask questions, just sign on the dotted line and embrace it

I'm torn right now, things are trending more amped and further north. Is this the classic windshield wiper effect? Or is this gonna keep shifting north until game time? Confluence is now modeled weaker, everything coming in with much cleaner and sharper trough's with better PVA aimed into the area. Right here is a perfect place for the storm to start lol. I've seen enough, I don't want any more SE or NW shifts

Still snowing

The trough is just incredibly sharper, cleaner, and more neutral on the RGEM.

RGEM coming in hot

You can see on the NAM at hours 57 and 60 the precip die off. That's when many here will begin to panic and call bust. But fret not! The coastal transfer is just occurring. You gotta stick those dreadful dry hours out to get the sweet sweet CCB from the ramped-up coastal.

GEFS with a nice jackpot over south-central areas

GEFS a rather significant increase for some areas, especially South-Central PA.

12z on top, 18z on bottom