Newman

This GFS run is about to be insane, oh my gosh

Crushed

Just now, Birds~69 said:

?????????...WTF?

Don't ask questions, just sign on the dotted line and embrace it

I'm torn right now, things are trending more amped and further north. Is this the classic windshield wiper effect? Or is this gonna keep shifting north until game time? Confluence is now modeled weaker, everything coming in with much cleaner and sharper trough's with better PVA aimed into the area. Right here is a perfect place for the storm to start lol. I've seen enough, I don't want any more SE or NW shifts

Still snowing

The trough is just incredibly sharper, cleaner, and more neutral on the RGEM.

RGEM coming in hot

You can see on the NAM at hours 57 and 60 the precip die off. That's when many here will begin to panic and call bust. But fret not! The coastal transfer is just occurring. You gotta stick those dreadful dry hours out to get the sweet sweet CCB from the ramped-up coastal.

GEFS with a nice jackpot over south-central areas

GEFS a rather significant increase for some areas, especially South-Central PA.

12z on top, 18z on bottom

Not a fan of the RGEM or NAM. Shows the classic EPA Miller B screw zone setting up. Not saying its gonna happen, but much higher possibility now. 

9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I was trying to do the same thing.. no dice. Have accepted I'm staying up for the euro like a true weenie. Sleep is for summer time  couldn't ask for a better 00z suite thus far though. I think the low end imby is the Canadian with around a foot, hopefully we are only talking wobbles here on out and not shifts...

Haven't stayed up for a Euro run yet this winter, figured I'll roll the dice tonight. Btw, just for fun, here was the ICON snowfall:

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I wonder if there’s a chance that phases in?

I don't think that'll phase in, but this piece.... this is the one that matters IMO. Even if we do have a "too south" solution in the end, this piece helps to slingshot the low up the coast. Then we get sloppy seconds with a matured low. But hey, better than nothing and this slipping east. And if the storm isn't too south? Well then that piece helps to rejuvenate the low off the coast and pivot it back to the coast. That piece is everything in my opinion between a 6-10" storm and an 18-24" storm. I'm still young, but over the years I've grown weary of average storms. My mentality is go big or go home. I'm not the biggest fan of snow, but I love tracking MECS and potential HECS events. Especially when you have models print out incredible amounts, it's dangerous. It's like a drug, the last hit might have been great... the next one you want even better. Perhaps why this is such a mentally exhausting hobby...

'

13 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

"A storm delayed is a storm denied" 

If we get this too fast, it misses any chance of phasing with that backside vort. Then it's Juno 2.0. I think slower is better here. Too fast and you risk east slippage. Too late and perhaps you risk too amped. But I'll always take my chances with an amped and tucked closed 500 below me with a fresh arctic cold air mass in place.

I don't think that piece of confluence is all that bad. It forces the low formation a bit further south around the OBX. Then the storm would crawl up to the delmarva and stall as another piece of energy dives in the backside and pulls it back. Would you rather have a low form at the VA Capes/OBX? Or one that forms at the Delmarva? Based on past experience with Juno, I know what I pick...

I'm holding onto that Euro run like everyone holding onto their GME shares

Snows for 2 days!

That Euro run would rival the greatest. I think we can increase the QPF. Just clean it up a tad more. This could be the one 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system
Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic

What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update.
Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the
low, but even with the minor differences, could result in
significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for
the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous
forecast and a blend of guidance.

Timing: There are still some large differences between models
with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as
early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday,
depending on how progressive the system is.

Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big
factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with
regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our
region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region.
If the track is further south, as some of the operational models
are trending, it could be more snow.

Precipitation amounts: We won`t have a better idea on
precipitation amounts through this event until at least
Saturday.

Need a more consolidated h500 signature. Also, a tighter closed upper low. Would help to eliminate this "blotchy" precip distribution we're seeing. Even with a messier look, models still show the potential for 12"+. If we can get pieces to come together crisper...