Newman

Yeah storm that rolled through earlier was very solid, likely some 50-60mph gusts mixed in.

Tornado warning for Lebanon and Dauphin counties...

Had some Mammatus pop out behind the storms

Temp already back up to 82 and very soupy out. Severe parameters ramping up again. Will we see what we just saw this morning? Probably not. But some discrete cells capable of hail/wind definitely possible. Supercell Composite shooting up nicely. Will be interesting to see how destabilized we can get again...

Sun fully out again, dare I say a rare two-storms in one day occurrence? Atmosphere is very stabilzed behind the MCS but western and central PA have exploded with their severe parameters. Lapse rates will need to recover because there is no buoyancy in the atmosphere right now. But I think with enough sun, we'll be able to boost CAPE and bring in some discrete cells later...

The amount of trees down and damage across Berks County is insane right now. Go to the Fire Alerts of Berks Facebook page to see all the damage. It's incredible.

Went to the top of the nearby hiking spot to catch some pics. Once I got the 80mph warning and saw some lightning I booked it down, got to my car just in time. The first mile drive back the wind was incredible. I almost was blown off the road and trees/branches were literally falling all around me and flying into my car. I parked on the side of the road in a field with no trees around and thank God I did. Massive trees down across southern Berks. This is the pic I got, if I waited any longer I was gonna be in trouble. Maybe not my smartest decision but I'm alive.

Derecho/Bow Echo today??? It looks good out in western PA already. CAMs are unimpressive but radar looks tasty with it starting to grow upscale.

7 hours ago, yoda said:

Will be interesting to see what the Day 3 SPC OTLK looks like 

JFK looks to finish the month at 1.33" of rain, putting it 4th driest all time for the month of May I believe.

Those storms look ultra tasty around Harrisburg. Warned for 70mph gusts

Watch incoming...

Sun beginning to peek through here with low-level clouds burning up, SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE already over 2000 J/kg and LI at -5. Lapse rates are poor, but hopefully we'll have enough lift from the pre-frontal trough to initiate strong convection. Plenty of fuel to be tapped for the first decent severe threat in quite awhile. I'd bet with the decently high PWAT values we see some decent downburst winds.

Updated Day 2 outlook, 15% wind, 15% hail (new to this outlook), 2% tornado.

Day 2 Slight risk 

Worcester's 1.7" of rainfall this month would put it 6th currently as the driest May on record. Will see what the remainder of the week brings. Average is ~4.2" for reference. No where near record in 2015. Hartford's 1.6" this month also gives that station a shot at a top 10 driest May on record.

Looking at monthly rainfall, much of the central PA regions have seen a below normal month. Average is generally around 3.5-4.0" for most.

Williamsport:

Harrisburg:

And then there's Altoona which is on pace for the driest May on record! Only 1.15" have been recorded there this month. We'll see what the remainder of the week brings.

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Fascinating temps even next week on the GFS.  Wed Afternoon sees Bangor, Maine in the 90's, Lancaster, PA- 72 and Atlanta, GA- 69.  Of course clouds involved again but still topsy turvey.  Hinting of a Low coming off the Fl Coast and trying to go Tropical at that time.

 

The core of the ridge is centered to our north, likely why the NE region is seeing warmer temps. So even though we are in a southerly flow, the source region and placement of the ridge is not ideal for 90s+. Not to mention we have a cutoff low around the southern plains. Ideally I'd imagine we'd want warm anomalies to advect from that region into ours. Instead, we have cooler temps (compared to normal) in that region.

18/10/4

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The euro is pretty wet for Friday into Saturday.  We actually need the rain so hopefully it happens 

Could definitely use the rain. Since May 8th much of the surrounding areas have only seen around 0.1-0.2" of rain. So we're gonna end up going 2 weeks of an almost completely dry period.

So Philly has only recorded 0.7" of precip this May. Looking at future guidance, it's fairly possible Philly could end up with only around 1-1.2" of precip for the entire month of May if the drier guidance verifies. There's a long way to go obviously. But nevertheless, the average for May is ~3.6" and it's very likely we'll end up over 2" below for the month of May. In case you're interested, the record minimum is 0.47" in 1964 (Record Max is 7.41" in 1948). To break the top 10 for driest May's ever, we'd have to finish with less than 1.28" (2005). So we've got a fighting shot I guess.

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Newark has a shot at top 10 driest May unless we get a heavy rain event near the end of the month.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1964	0.52	0
2	1939	0.78	0
3	2020	0.81	13
4	1941	0.98	0
5	1935	1.01	0
6	2005	1.21	0
7	1965	1.23	0
8	1977	1.31	0
9	1986	1.41	0
10	1962	1.46	0

Thanks for that. And yeah it'll be interesting, latest Euro paints only around 0.2-0.3" entering May 29th. Verbatim, with 3 days left, could be within the 4th-6th lowest ever May range. Long ways to go though.

Currently only ~0.8" of precip has been recorded this May at Newark, and looking at future guidance it's possible Newark could end up with only around 1" of precip in the entire month of May 2020 if the drier guidance verifies. The average for the month of May is around 4" for reference. Now, I don't expect 1" to be a record, but it got me thinking: What's the record minimum amount of precip ever recorded at Newark for the Month of May?

Virtually 0" of rain the next 10 days on the Euro. Could have a pretty decent dry period coming up.

Despite prior forecasts from a couple days ago, the week is going to turn out mainly dry. Temps around 65-75 and an easterly wind should keep things pleasant.