Aleksey

How do I update my location in this forum? .

It doesn’t show me under your name. I’ll have to update my settings. For some reason it’s not letting me log in, but I can reply and post? I’m not sure. I used to live in Grand Rapids, MI for 5 years prior to coming back home and now I’m back in Winder. Saw the heaviest snow of my entire life up there. We averaged about 75” per winter up there and it became so old so quick. Southern snow is so much more exciting lol but tomorrow’s snow will be like the snow I was used to. Toccoa is sitting very pretty for tomorrow! I think they could see the most along with Athens and Winder in the top 3-5 for totals in the state. .

Thanks! I feel good about this one for sure! I think it over performs and moves more west then models show. I think widespread 2-4 and 3-5” is likely in Oconee, Barrow and Walton county. .

Where are you located? .

I’m in Winder and looking like 2-4” .

Since there’s like no one from GA in here and our GA folks get no love, I’ll make sure to keep y’all posted in intensity and inches, since it will hit here early morning and end by early afternoon. I’ll let you know how it’s going and try and get some pics and videos. Enjoy y’all! I’m still calling for 2-4” in MBY but 4-5” is not out of the question either, as radars are putting heavy banding right over MBY. .

NWS is calling for 3-4” for MBY and 4-6” 22 east of me. Western trend continues on. Also expecting to receive a band of heavier snow at some point late morning. Game on! .

Why? Every short range model and euro plus gives me 3-4” lol I’m sitting fine. Ain’t worried at all. If it happens then cool, if not then that sucks but that’s weather. My original forecast of 2-4” looks likely to verify in NE GA and it still ticking west for us on every run including the all the mesos. Really sitting pretty. .

Haha right? I mean there’s a really good chance we see 2-4”, Athens could easily see 4-5”. The trends are most definitely in our favor and this could over perform for us too. Ratios will be so high widespread 2-4” from Lawrenceville to Athens and everywhere in between those areas. Monroe/Winder/Bethlehem look to be 2-4” on every single run. Great trends today and looking very likely! .

What an amazing run for NE GA. These trends have been amazing for us and keep continuing! Love being in this position and feel very confident with 2-4” in my neck of the woods and that’s a lot this far south! .

I agree with the Atlanta and metro area, but not out towards winded. 0.3” QPF with 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. Athens will most definitely be getting hit hard with 3-6”. West of Barrow county is where QPF will be super low and around 0.1”. Athens looks to be at 0.3”-0.4” of QPF which would easily lay down 3-6”. The cutoff is west of Barrow into mid Gwinnett. .

2-4” for me with the possibility of 5” .

Winder (where I’m at) out to Athens is looking at 2-4” with the possibility of 5”. That’s a huge win for us! .

For real! Most of us in here have barely seen a 3”+ storm in the last 8 years and most of NC and upstate is guaranteed 4-6” minimum and y’all are whining like babies lol Charlotte hasn’t received 1” in a single storm in over 1400 days and yall are about to get a absolute minimum 4” and up to 8”. I’m over here pumped about the 3-5” I’m supposed to get in NE GA. Quit being greedy and enjoy the snow we get. Haven’t gotten it in a very long time so anything over 3” is a major win! .

HRRR and NAM both give me 2”+ in NE GA and thats at 10:1. Ratios will be around 20:1 over here based off our latest NWS briefing that just got done. Any totals you fan multiply by 1.5-2 because ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. Sitting pretty over here [emoji3587] .

Athens will see 3-5” easily with Elberton and Elbert county looking like 4-6”. I’m looking at 2-5” in my neck of the woods, I’m 25 miles west of Athens. This is trending great for us and looking very likely! .

You’re not wrong. I’m in Winder, 25 miles west of Athens and we’re easily looking at 2-3” at a 10:1 ratio. Considering this will be closer to 15:1 ratio, Winder I think sees 3-4” with Athens 4-5” and that could also still be higher too. We’re sitting pretty here for GA. .

GFS is too far east with the snow in NE GA. It’s the only model out of every model that far east. Will definitely be more west into GA. GFS is on its own with that thinking and it’s the most inaccurate model of the globals. The consistency of the Euro, CMC, RGEM, ICON I’d bet on before the GFS, but that’s just me. And I’m speaking solely from NE GA, Winder, about 25 miles west of Athens. I think 2-4” is very likely for us on these parts of the forum. .

Can’t forget Monroe and Winder in that. 1-4” from Winder to Athens and east .

If you’re off 316 from Winder to Athens, you’re sitting in a very good spot for 2-4”. Most of these models are already starting to follow the Euro and a western shift looks more likely than not, it’s already starting on a lot of models. Great position to be in! Metro is a lot tougher call and less likely but could still see a dusting to an inch. The Euro is the king for a reason and the most trusted model 48 hours out. Sit back and relax and enjoy, it’s coming for sure! .

Euro is good for western members too. GFS kinda on its own for Western members. I’m talking Athens, GA area west. Canadian has been consistent and hasn’t budged at all for us over this way and the euro has trended west every run since yesterday for us. .

Not worried. It’s the GFS lol and the GFS is the only model this far east. Euro is the best at this range and a lot more west. We’ll see, but I’m not worried about the GFS being so far east, I highly doubt that. The GFS was so far east it gives Athens, GA and pretty much all of the coast of GA nothing. Euro has been consistently west and laying 2-3” for Athens. I don’t buy the GFS, especially after how awful it was last storm and the weekend before that. It has the lowest verification scores inside 72 hours of any global model. Wait and see what the Euro does. Either way NC/SC are in a great spot regardless of which model you wanna hug. But Athens, GA is definitely getting snow out of this one and it’s comical how far east the GFS is .

I’m in Winder, about 20 miles west of Athens, and we’re absolutely in the game and most likely gonna get at least light snow up to 1”. West of there nothing. Sharp cutoffs but if you live off 316 and east towards Athens, you definitely will be getting some light accumulating snow, 1-2” in most spots in those areas. Athens could see 3” .

Agreed. Today’s the Big day for the global runs, adjustments, alignments, etc etc… Tomorrow is when we can really start looking at the mesoscales. 3 days out today, 2 days out tomorrow. .

TWC also hugs the GFS and uses that as their main guidance when forecasting totals. I had a friend who was an intern there and he told me they always use the GFS as the “base” and will look at a mix blend of their own in house models, but when they forecast the totals it’s the GFS being used mainly. They hardly ever take the Euro into account. .