HKY1894

Euro dropping massive amount of ZR


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Euro is an absolute monster. 32 degree line well south.. night and day from any other model in evolution


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Definite trend from all 00z op runs so far for a miller b. Still not sold one way or another personally. One positive trend from both gfs runs was quicker ejection of shorthwave


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FV3 at 138 isn’t as sharp with energy in Southwest compared to 18z more broad like euro not gonna guess on outcome but it’s not a bad trend


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GEFS snow clown map moved south on this 00z run compared to 18z

Was just about to post this mean snowfall ranging from 5-8 inches across all of WNC. Pretty big increase in overall amount of snowfall too

Even with the miller B the gfs is a huge hit for NW NC and SW VA. Front end snow then either sleet or ZR lots of QPF


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Both 12z gefs and eps had a big increase in snowfall. Looks like it’s an all or nothing situation, on eps members that have snowfall are big for WNC. Other members appear to be big rainers.


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Very notable increase in snowfall on 6z gefs compared to prior runs nearly double it appears.

South/Central Va looking pretty good at this lead time. Farther south still questionable due to temps. Pure southern stream waves are much more predictable than chance of no storm is very slim right now. Similar to 09-10 in that regard.

0z euro is a huge hit for western part of NC 32 degree line is just west of CLT when heavy precip moves in. Not looking at soundings this far out but Weatherbell snow map is drool worthy for my area. Looks like classic miller A El Niño storm


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As usual, subtle changes in the height pattern make this an upper south vs mid-atlantic vs northeast storm. Pretty amazing how it’s there though run after run.  El Niño with a stout southern wave in split flow yields higher predictability (compared for example to northern stream waves diving down in fast flow)

looking like 12z euro lots o cold rain


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Gonna be much more intense system on 00z gfs than 18z looks warm we will see if HP over Midwest can move east for CAD


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Interested to see how this plays out, FV3 has consistently migrated towards more of a cutter or Miller b in last 4 model cycles. But eps and gefs look more like a classic Miller a type storm. Feel like early December climo favors WNC if we get Miller A look. Timing of the high pressure vs the storm will be key as well. We are far from final solution no matter what the outcome.

Many more opportunities later in December and early January when forcing becomes more favorable for Aleutian low/+PNA pattern + more favorable climo

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12z euro also has the energy in the southwest in the long range, looks like a big midwestern storm forming though unfortunately, something other than suppression though. 

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

That just screams cutter to me, or atleast rain. Looks like it pumps a ridge in front and no confluence. I know we are getting too much confluence now, but looks non-existant on that map.?

Not gonna over analyze it because the gfs has nothing even close to this but that “ridge”you’re seeing is actually the flow backing and that causes overrunning, the surface maps have sleet and ZR in the cad regions with a dammning high in NNE. Basically we want to see the isobars pointed in a north to south orientation rather than the flat east to west orientation we are seeing now. The NAO being neutral to positive isn’t great either but I don’t think it’s physically possible in this decade for that indice to be anything but positive.

Way out in fantasy land on the CMC is a much better look for a storm, could possibly cut or be a miller b but much better movement of the energy way out on the west coast early on, in the southeast we can’t rely on energy dropping into the northwest and digging through the Midwest, Gotta be into Cali and through the southwest. December 8th-9th was more similar to this look than what we’ve seen recently 

COLD AND DRYI LOVE IT

QPF totals from gfs? I’m too busy to look at work

Big increase in QPF from 12z ukie compared last nights 00z run

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

6z NAVGEM

 

This model has been so consistent for at least 3 days now 

Ukie not quite as good as 12z yesterday. But much better than 0z. Trending back towards a good storm for WNC possible up into VA

It’s so odd how the NAVGEM is so amped up and has been for days. It’s notoriously a progressive model