CoalCityWxMan
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Everything posted by CoalCityWxMan
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Can you tell how far south the southern edge of snow moved from 12z?
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That is true. If the NAM ends up being right, parts of N IL would be in store for a snow/ice storm that looked to be mostly rain/frz rain
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What a huge jump south on the NAM. Odd it’s remained so consistent the last few days up till now
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Way south
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We all predicted there’d be a SE trend, just not this late in the game lol
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Models seem to be coming in a little colder/wetter/south. Wonder if these trends continue with 00z
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NAM looks to be south/weaker too
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18z HRRR is a pretty decent bump south compared to 12z. As we know the long range hrrr sucks, but late trends are something to keep an eye on
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00z NAM looks about the same as 18z so far.
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Kind of surprised honestly. We’ll see what future trends do
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Another thing to consider is that this system could potentially have an impact on the cold blast later this week, atleast this far south to some degree.
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This will be an interesting storm, could be one of those cases where we see icing even if temps are above freezing as mentioned. Wonder what future runs will have to say
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Me too. I’d take nothing over a 34 degree snowpack depleting rain
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The new NAM has bumped south and now keeps much of Chicagoland rain free
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LOT highlights uncertainty with the system and its track in afternoon AFD, also shares concerns warm air may not make it as far north as some models think.
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GEFS shifted SE too. GFS has it going from the single digits to 37 in just a few hours. It’s possible, but seems unlikely and I’d also bet on a SE shift
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The hrrr just keeps beefing up totals in N IL...
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3” increase in totals says the HRRR over the last 3-4 runs. But like you said, southern Cook could only see 3” while northern Cook sees 7-8” (not including LE, just talking about the next 20 hours)
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21z RAP looks good for N IL, the HRRR is showing an upward trend as well in recent runs.
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RAP too. I’ve noticed both the hrrr/RAP are bringing higher amounts further east into IL in recent runs Edit: If anything, maybe it means the area just south of the band right now will fill in sooner than it’s showing later today
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It looks like the fgen band may be a little further south than its being depicted by the hrrr/rap. Not sure if it’ll make a difference or not (probably won’t) but something to look at
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Fall/Winter 2018-19 Complaint/Banter Thread
CoalCityWxMan replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Wow, I wish I had some pics from GHD I But I was only 13 at the time. In my location in rural Grundy there were several 6’ drifts and I remember getting actually stuck in a few of them lol -
Looks good from DKB-ORD in the Chicago area
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NAM centers it around the I-88 corridor while the hrrr/rap has it further north. Would hate to be LOT tonight, tough call.
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For northern IL: NAM- 6-9” 3km NAM- 9-14” (lol) 36 hr hrrr- 2-4” Yikes
