bjc3395

Any thoughts on May from a seasonal perspective? GWO looking increasingly favorable for mid-late May but from this range tough to make any definitive statements

Moisture return still looks shaky at best but the GFS convects for Thursday with reasonable temp profiles to sustain surface-based convection... With pretty strong shear profiles in W/NW OK. Additionally while the operational euro does not convect along the dry line, quite a few members of its ensemble do. It's worth watching... The euro also slows quite a bit (the operational member) with an ejection at like 12z Friday. If the wave slows another 12 hours or so, a pretty big Friday event would be on the table (details still needing sorted however).

SPC just put out a day 6 for the event, mentioning tornadoes and damaging winds. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little bit of a Wwd shift but I don’t think this will be all that chaseable regardless. Should be pretty messy.. but definitely has some decent severe potential. The other region forum has not a peep about it lol. The winter wx weenies, I tell ya.

Definitely increasing potential somewhere in the LA/AR and points east area for organized severe weather. Looking like a robust wave will interact with instability as significant cyclogenesis takes place. Shall keep an eye out on this one.

This one won’t garner a ton of interest anytime soon but I’m becoming intrigued of a robust severe weather event happening across Louisiana into states to its east next weekend. General pattern progression favors the increase of low level moisture with decent instability on tap by Saturday next week. A significant wave looks to take on a neutral-negative tilt as it ejects into the Plains, inducing substantial cyclogenesis as a result. Won’t really go into more details.. but this one looks to target my forecast/WWA AOR, so I’m a bit peeped for that.

Not many. I see some mid-upper 60s over upper 50s (even low-60s Td). That said, it has nothing to do with how far east the dry line surged. The thermal axis will always lie behind the dry line.. that's just how it works. What you're seeing is the effect of widespread cloud cover by the GFS. The GFS has the entire warm sector underneath 85+% cloud cover, restricting temperatures in the mid 60s. There definitely will be a portion farther south that gets completely capped by 850mb warming. However, I am pretty convinced there's going to be surface-based severe storms somewhere along the dry line in W OK. The only way this doesn't happen is if widespread cloud cover mutes the diurnal heating cycle, suppressing the dry line circulation.. I question the GFS cloud cover output in this regard, even though widespread cloud cover is a possibility. I would expect it Saturday and Saturday night more so than Sunday..

Definitely worth watching, the wind profiles over the warm sector and along the dry line are extremely impressive (at least on the GFS, haven't checked the ECMWF). Latest GFS even cracks 60 F Td into SW OK, with pretty solid early March lapse rates to boot. The problem isn't really the moisture as much as it seems to be the heating. Widespread cloud cover, I'm guessing, would be likely on the heels of that strong frontal push into the GoM. Neat as always to get a system like this early in the season, but as is typical, it comes on the heels of a strong cyclone and anticyclone pairing to the east, driving moisture out into the GoM just before.. Hard to see much to chase on Sunday. Going to follow, but plenty will need to be overcome for this to be anything noteworthy.

Sunday could be an interesting day in the plains. Not sure the moisture will make it but.. We will see. The shear will be there, I'm just not entirely sure with that lead system that we will have much moisture to work with. Probably worth watching.

knew of GFS ensemble and CFS, I've been using euro on accuwx but they don't have the ENS I believe. Euro ensemble, at least on a very basic 24 hour interval similar to what pivotal/COD offer, is available on the euro site for free but it's very basic. Anyway it shows a solution further south than what GEFS depicts, with operational euro even further south. Very interesting and encouraging to see. Would not mind a repeat of Thursday's positioning if verified though I'd like to see better timing and less crap. Tl;Dr I wanna chase kansas, maybe Nebraska. Wouldn't mind OK but that would be a rather anomalous event.

Just curious, where can someone access the "weeklies" and ensemble data? Thanks!

Euro shows a pretty significant trough coming onshore hour 240... time to get excited?

Monday looks like a pretty robust event in OK/KS per 12z euro if you ask me.

I was referencing prior 0z and 12z euro

GFS (0z) a step in the right direction. Euro is where it's at. GFS *potentially* trending that direction.

Hahaha NAM wants winter back.