rduwx

26 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

So really this is coming down to the globals vs. the NAM. But even the NAM looked better last run. 

I believe the Nam looking better is a matter of opinion... LOL! I don't think .8 of zr is better. Just give me the rn. Like I said that's a matter of opinion. 

1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

yikes, at 45 the snow line looks even farther north 

1034 hp at hr 30.  I believe it was in the 1040 range a couple days ago.

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The NAM is a raging sleetstorm for many with the big warm nose. Thats why the kuchera maps look so much different than the one brick posted..

Once that warm nose makes an appearance for the RDU area, I've learned to count on it.  It's usually worse than modeled.  I'm not saying that's the case for this storm but I've found that mostly true for past storms.

5 minutes ago, CyclonicFury said:

This is slowly trending from what appeared to be a near miss to a potential major snowfall for RDU. But will a warm nose appear is the question. 

The latest FV3 keeps temperatures below freezing here all day Sunday with no changeover to rain. 

Today was a good day on the models for RDU but like Grit, I believe there will be more changes to come.  We have a lot more model runs to go...LOL!

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For RDU folks, this was a better run. As currently modeled, the farther west and north from Raleigh the better. **If it's right I barely stay all snow through the event. I've seen this too many time. 

Agreed, I've seen it way too many times.  If every model run from now until the event was like this, I'd definitely expect major mixing.  Usually if the mixing is that close, you can take it to the bank for my area.

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like some folks are worried about the NAM being too warm for my neck of the woods. 

That's always been a concern.  It's going to be close.  I do think we start as snow.

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

HP actually strengthens considerably out to 75 to a 1041 parked in southeastern MN. LP placement still relatively similar to 6z position.

4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

It's at 1041 at hour 75 on the 12z Nam, no worries yet.

That's good news! At work so can't check models as they're coming out.

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Only noticeable thing this run on the NAM through 60 is the high is slightly weaker. We've done okay with 1038 many times in the past though. 

Talking about trends earlier, that has been a trend on the NAM.  I believe it was 1041 at one time.  I don't want to see it continue to drop, that's for sure.

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As Grit just stated, if there is more ice then I think we get a big storm. If this is a miller a snow/rain storm we may only get that 1" (...then it will wash away). 

Yes, I agree.  At this point I feel confident we get the snow at the beginning.  Then it's a matter of how long we hold on to that.  After the transition starts it's going to be close to what that p-type is. Again this is talking from what I've seen lately.  This could easily change in the next 2 days...LOL!

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Here's RDU:

 

 

It'll be interesting to see if that change over is more of a zr vs a rn scenario.  Or if we get a lot more mixing period.  It is extremely close in my area.

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

No, I am talking about the 3 to 6 inches most are showing for Wakea

Ahhh, OK. 

7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

We got control runs, ensembles, means all showing a big storm. Really exciting.

Did you move to the western part of NC? Even though you seem to usually do better than us closer to Raleigh. 

7 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

If Wake Co gets an inch I’ll be happy

Based on the 12z Euro there is between a 80% and 90% chance Wake County receives 1" of snow.

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run...  THEN the map is posted.
Do y'all know where Wake is?  That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.

Control run did show around 10" for Wake.  The EPS Mean was a lot lower.

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am growing more confident that this will be a bust for us RDU folks unless you like cold rain and perhaps a touch of sleet/zr. At best we could get lucky with a few backside flakes with the dreaded cold air chase. It is close but I am just not seeing the amount of cold air that makes me confident in a seeing a memorable winter storm. On a side note, the northern NC counties should keep an eye for a few flakes in the very early hours of Wed morning.  

I'm in agreement eyewall.  Great looking system but I believe the cold will be lacking for us.  The further west of Raleigh you go the better imo.  Hopefully things will change in the modeling today that will make me change my mind.

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now.

Yes, I agree.  I was just looking at that myself.

28 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Remember folks, if the gradient isn't running through the heart of Wake County, then you can toss that snowmap. It's not verifying. 

I almost said this exact same thing.  When I saw the the gradient running through Wake County I said this will verify...LOL!

He's on another site. 

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

That’s it?  What happened to our 20 inches? 

That thing in your avatar showed up!

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Impressive setup day 7-8...negatively tilted trough, lowest DN in GA.  I haven't really been watching this period so not sure if this what it's been showing though.  That atlantic ridge should help to keep the wide rights back in play.

 

12z euro has the same wave and setup but we need to have it slow down some.  We'll need some separation from the day 5 cutter.

37 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Work with this...

Similar to that last storm...If it continues to show up in future runs, will it come far enough west is going to be the question.

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Ok, that really is sad and I hate it for you guys. Gee, why does that look so familiar... oh that's right, that's what I see every time it's supposed to snow here in the upstate. Ours is caused by mtn downslopping, what causes it for you guys?

pack!....

Just kidding pack!

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

This is way more impressive then getting 1-2" of snow.  None of us in Raleigh would remember a 1-2" event but we will remember the snow hole.  That band to our west will eventually snow itself out and may bring us some flurries, but doubtful.

 

This is crazy...Every time I think its filling in, it comes back in the next frame.  You're right, we'll definitely remember this.

8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The snowhole will be more impressive then 1-2” of snow.  I just expect it now...something always happens.  #snowshield.  

It might be me...I started this hobby about 13 years ago and we've been in this drought it seems like the entire time (with the exception of 2010)...

When I look at the radar, I just have to laugh.