rduwx

3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’m just shy of 52 and this is a normal winter for me here in the south. ‘04-‘09 were a horrible 6 years, ‘12 and ‘13 sucked, ‘15 until today.....still sucking. You’ve had snow. It isn’t the worst you’ve seen, ‘06 and ‘19 was only a trace there. 

51 here too and I have to agree!

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

As a single Mom and Nana to 3, I get to spend as much time photographing nature as I want, because I can 

 

There are perks to being single in your 50's! 

1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

I noticed that you taken a step back. Me as well. Hard to invest all the time only to miss out in the end. The payoff for this hobby used to be a lot better.

I agree! I ended up becoming a member at a couple of golf courses here.  If winters are going to be warmer and no snow, I might as well enjoy being on the golf course...LOL!  And as a single dad of 2 older daughters, I can do that. 

1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

Been here all my life. I agree about the 80's and if you can believe it the 70's were even better. I remember being able to walk across small ponds on the ice on the way to school. I was a lot lighter then though...

My parents moved to Cary in '73 and I was 4 so I remember those 70's winters also.  Those winters were so much colder.

I'm one of the few that grew up in Cary, NC and it's amazing how different winters are now in comparison to the 80's.  It seemed we always had 2 good winter storms a year.  Now we're lucky to get 2 good winter storms a decade...LOL!  That's part of the reason I'm not on the board much anymore.  I got tired of getting the Charlie Brown football/Lucy routine pulled on me all the time.  Now after at least 15 years on weather boards the disappointment isn't as bad because you actually expect the models to change to either a warmer solution or to shift north. 

Now bring on the 7 out of 8 days of rain...

Winter model runs like this is what keeps bringing you back! It’s sort of like the one good shot you hit on the golf course. Lol!

34 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option

 

Perfect! I'd much rather see a POSSIBLE storm 9 days out show up too far south.  I've been burned by the north trend for at least 15 years...LOL!

Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

UK only goes out to 144 but extrapolating it was going to be a major winter storm for WNC and N/W of 85. 

I agree that this definitely looks like a western NC hit.  Going negative tilt too early for the eastern part of NC.

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

EE rule in effect? Asking for a friend   

You went old school on us! LOL!

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro has a Jan ‘87 look to it 

I'd rather have it look like Jan '88...LOL!  If I remember correctly we had a lot of ice in Jan '87.

2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It has been perfect temps for the most part. Great riding and training weather for the horses. Who am I kidding...great for me too

That looks really nice as we head into the heart of winter 

OMG! I’ve missed your face  

I've missed your face too!   I hope you and the family are doing well!  Now get us some snow! 

2 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

We need you around man! 

I like the pattern that's showing up right now so you'll be seeing more of me!  I hope you're doing well man!

1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

That’s exactly what this pattern can produce. 

I don't post much anymore but do still keep up with model runs during winter and I agree 100%.  It doesn't always work out for us in the south so no guarantees but the players are on the field.  It's been a while...LOL!

Have switched to sleet here now.

It appears to be switching to sleet further west in Cary.  For those familiar with the area NC 55 & High House is sleet/snow mix while all snow around Academy & Chatham.

Just now, CaryWx said:

Back to sleet now in my area with some snow

I hope we don't switch over.  I sure would like to hold onto these rates for a little while.

Ripping snow in downtown Cary.  Secondary roads are covered.

9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Still snowing up my way but I think the transition is very close. I have around 9". Not too shabby. 

That's awesome Falls!  I'd say we have about 5 to 6 inches here in Apex but have switched to rain.  Admittedly that's more than I was expecting.  My thoughts were we'd get 2 to 3 before changing over.

3 minutes ago, ajr said:

 

That's really not surprising.  I've tried not to post much during this storm because I didn't want to come across as too negative but once the warm nose showed up on the NAM the first time I didn't have a good feeling.  We still need to wait and see how this turns out and I really hope I'm wrong.  I love snow just as much as everyone else.

3 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

WRAL is basically Cold Rain and wildremann wrapped into one. Not buying any guidance.

Throw rduwx in there with Cold Rain and Wildremann...LOL!

3 minutes ago, Solak said:

18z NAM--- 1" zr for RDU? Yikes!

 

 

 

At this point I'm hoping we warm up by a degree or two and just get regular rain.  I've seen enough ZR to last a lifetime.

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The gradient for Wake is funny. And 10.3 for Durham, but 3.9 for Raleigh. 

18z NAM has Wake County going to rain a lot quicker than Durham County.  That's probably the difference in amounts.

Just now, FallsLake said:

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

Yeah, I agree.  We'll need to cash in on all the snow we can get at the beginning. The 12z NAM is showing somewhere around .8 of zr for the RDU area.  I believe a lot of that will be plain rain or rain at 32 degrees which is like just a cold rain...LOL!

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow. 

I haven't looked at all the profiles yet but still looks like a good bit of zr for the RDU area.  I'm still not sold on this being a big event for the RDU area.  I'm not trying to be negative, just what I see.

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him.  Temperatures just aren't great for Wake.  Lots of rain.  Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy.  

I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.

Yes, I agree.  We'll see some snow at the beginning but think we will switch to rain at some point.  Once I saw the warm nose, I knew it was the kiss of death.  Hopefully I'm wrong.