ma blizzard

Warmer look on the EURO next Mon-Wed compared to the GFS 

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is this a staple of transitioning from a stronger Nino episode to a Nina? 

It just seems very bizarre how there is such little model-to-model and run-to-run agreement or consistency. I know this can happen during the warmer months due to convection which can throw things out of whack but I can't recall seeing it this head scratching. 

Anecdotally it seems there has been an unusual amount of variability even in the D5-D7 range lately 

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

A few weeks back I thought the NAM was out-to-lunch and got taken to school...this time I'm going to buy the NAM and it will probably be wrong. 

18z run most amped yet with a widespread 1"-2" .. it will be interesting to see if we once again over-achieve

enjoying the stratiform rain 

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh I see.  There was an inversion that we needed to cook off.  Temps just surged in the last hour where ever there's sun. 

We looked like we'd be a bit under guidance ( machine ) as of 10 am.  It was just 71 .. 72 in the region at that time. But it's 78 .. 80 really quickly just in the last hour. 

So the machine numbers may in fact be too cool ?   here's a stretch, maybe they'll be right.  no way

noticed that too .. seemed to go from U60s to near 80 very quickly last hour

69/57, feels a lot warmer in the sun thats for sure 

great day for an outdoor wedding in SE NH ... meanwhile its starting to pour in metro west 

warm run of the GFS so far .. verbatim looks like 70s/80s for at least a week starting on Monday 

1.02" on the day, 1.32" 2 day total 

Really could be a prolific rainfall producer over a localized area 

12z guidance hedging wetter Wednesday night / Thursday .. still a little skeptical but we'll see 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

But who the hell knows. disastrous model consensus for tomorrow. Thank God this isn't a winter event.

Tough call for sure .. weenie range HRRR would soak and 12z NAM is trending that way 

Before 12z runs I would say hedge drier, but we'll have to see .. 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

30s tonight for some?

might have to bring in some plants the next few nights .. with enough clearing could be close to frost

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

perhaps end of May sure...but I was focused on the next few weeks really. 

Agreed, next 2 weeks is back and forth and final week of the month is more sustained warmth 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change. 

not sure .. I'd argue the end of May looks warm and the only thing holding it back from potentially our first taste of HHH is the tendency for west based -NAO. 

Already up to 68 

For all the dreary days we've had, this spring has featured many gems like today 

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we'll ever see a high risk any further east than what we saw 5/31/98. The only way it ever happens if there was a legit signal for a derecho to rip across NY/PA and SNE (or NY across NNE). We would never see a high risk for tornado probs, one reason being the spatial size of our geography is just too small. I wonder what the outlook was for 7/15/95. 

7/10/89 would be interesting too

69/60, finally feels a bit like summer 

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

50° but it sure feels colder.

thermo says 55 but def a chill in the air

up to 78 - impressive recovery

warmest day so far this year and could push 80 

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

back building narrow cloud axis should make today's max temp interestingly targeted

yeah still should be a nice recovery if we can clear out next hour .. 

2 hours ago, NoCORH4L said:

Going to be like this crap until Monday next week. 

Yeah doesn’t look like a great stretch although tomorrow does look nice

0.17" overnight .. just missed the goods 

53 minutes ago, BrianW said:

 

jealous .. enjoy!