Tigerchick224

you won't see a better 8-14 outlook from CPC than this for Southeast snow storms.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Question…is the leeside event some models are showing different from the mesolow forming? I am just learning and curious. Thanks!


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This was the all time worst though... Forecasted for 4-6 inches. Got a feather dusting. Places to my west and south got 4-6. Places to my east... well... screw those guys!

@wncsnow @buckeyefan1 thank you both for your kind words! I just emailed Mississippi State about what I would be required to do as a new/old student. We shall see!


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Here's a fluffy pine warbler to brighten your day
 

Hi! Not sure where to put this, so feel free to remove if necessary.

I am currently a second grade teacher and have been the past twelve years and I can say I am no longer happy. Weather has always been a passion of mine, and the older I get and the less time I have left, the more I want to go for it.

However, math was always a weak spot for me. I noticed with some of the programs I am looking at, a lot of Calculus is necessary. I haven’t taken that type of math in 13 years.

For meteorologists on the board, do your have any useful tips or suggestions on how to do well on the math that comes with a weather degree? Thank you in advance.


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Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough.  The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind.
The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 
12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it. 
 

Just came in from sledding because of the sleet and wind combination…ouch!!! Coming down hard now.


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Absolutely magical here in Travelers Rest this morning. We have at least 6” and still coming down.


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Got snow in Travelers Rest!


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Flizzard at Caesar’s Head!


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Travelers Rest 41/27.

Just saw some snow on radar up at Caesar’s Head. Headed up to check it out and see if it’s verga or the real deal.


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850 temps at same time frame

Lol...not sure if this was worded correctly. 

I think north of 85 in SC is looking good for 4-8 inches of snow. My confidence level for that is pretty good all things considered. 
 
8-12 possible north of hwy 11 and 10-12+ in the sc mountains above 1500ft. 

Snow totals going down and ice totals going up.  

Tigerchick, that's pretty much what I'm going with. I have 5-8", 4-6" 2-3" and 1-2"...pretty much your same zones. I thought Chris put out an excellent videocast. There is still much uncertainty. And if we get the amount of ice that is potential, it will for sure cut down on the snow totals.

Upstate SC Peeps- Can I have some honest feedback on this first call map? I have a lot of friends and family who ask me about weather and I don’t want to disappoint them by being to bullish. I thought Chris Justus was somewhat conservative and heavily reliant on climo today,and with some of his past calls, within good reason. However, I am really liking this front end thump models are depicting before the warm nose. I tried to make a map between model ensemble estimates and his forecast. Thanks in advance!


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We are trying to keep the waa from changing us over in this situation. 

That's why we call it being nam'd this far out  We're looking for the general track with the short term models at this point. 

Doesn’t the NAM have issues with temps that far out towards the end of the run?


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Ensembles

My favorite part of the GSP AFD is the bolded here.  We are cautioned to manage our expectations.  Yeah, we're not too good at doing that on weather boards. 

Headed to Grandfather Mtn in the morning.  Hope the leaves are near peak there!  Anyone have any reports from that area?

Saw a video from there and it was pouring