Warm Nose

The one that @stormtracker said was set up for a big fail?

O/U remains 3" it seems like. Shifts between now and then but we'll just have to nowcast.

We'll see, but it does look like the GFS might indeed be the outlier

This is setting up for a nice meltdown when the other models don't follow suit.

Outlier. Toss.

Pummeled?

If the message is confusing and requires an explanation, it's poorly worded. The inverse map doesn't say 'Best case scenario' but rather it says 'low end amount - 9 in 10 chance of higher.' It's bad but whatever.

It's an awful way to word it. Why not stick with the original designation - 10 percent chance? I'm not surprised honestly but this one is beyond dumb.

"Reasonable Worst Case Scenario" WTF is that exactly? Accuracy by obfuscation? Goodness that's bad. Worst case by whose standards? Does that mean that's the minimum or maximum? I'd be embarrassed as a met to put that out.

Sterling with their updated map

No cake frosting for NE Md

What you want: What we'll get:

Sadly that's all too believable and I could see that verifying. Thankfully it's the HRRR at longer range.

Toss

O/U seems to be the 3" mark for this 'event'

No soup for you! (Or any of us)

Fringed again ... congrats Southern Md/ES

At this point O/U for me is 3" IMBY I've jackpotted many times while the rest of the forum hasn't. I'll no doubt have more chances this winter.

42/33

Haven't seen the 'P' word used yet ...

What you posted: Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. What I see: Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part.