KeenerWx

10.7" for the '23-'24 season so far. 12.1" for '22'-'23. Assuming we don't get a silly late season thumper, will be 1st & 2nd worst seasons for snowfall locally since at least '05-'06.

HRRR trying to show additional initiation over next hour or two in E IL/W IN. We shall see. Holding out small hope for a stray boomer. 

2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Didn't think I'd be signing in for svr season this early in the Calumet region, but parameters for later tonight are quite concerning.

Wonder if locally this is the earliest 10% hatched tor outlook. 

Locally, Feb 27th was the first day 1 SLGT for 2023. Not at all relevant, just found it somewhat interesting 

Been snowing here for approx 2 hours, heavy for around an hour. No accumulation. Fine with that. 

Looks like we’ll grab an inch or two tomorrow. With that we’ll be in striking distance of double digits. As much as I hate this winter, I’m all for whatever breaks the monotony. Futile records be damned. 
 

On the flip side, loving the warmth currently modeled. Happy to leave a s**t winter behind expeditiously. 

Ready to torch into spring and get this s**t over with. Expectations were muted, but quite an accomplishment to (perhaps) come behind 22/23. Single event max at 2.4” and below double digits on the season.

Lightning on the horizon last week got me excited. Let’s get on with some form of activity. 

IMBY - 7.3” to date for 23/24 season vs 4.1” through Jan 19 for 22/23 season. Rather insignificant difference. However, will say that to date I’m a bit more “entertained” by this season. Tough/close breaks locally. But feel there has been a decent amount of opportunity to track, which is half of the fun of being an enthusiast. 

Lake response already taking place. Band is going to be razor thin, at least initially. We’ll see how meso features evolve. 

3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

The HRRR scoots the lake effect band further toward South Bend Friday afternoon/evening before shifting back west. Would cut down on huge totals in any one location but "spread the wealth" over a slightly wider area.

That meso low feature has popped up a few times. If it occurs, would certainly influence the final outcome. Surprises can happen up to last minute on these southern LM lake effect events. 

Tonight’s round looks less promising. 1” looks near the ceiling rather than the floor locally. Tomorrow remains more promising, but yet trends are a little iffy. 

Feeling there’s still a reasonable shot to eclipse the single event “record” of 2.4” for 23/24 season.

I’ll go T tonight & 2.9” with second round. 
 

LOT’s morning discussion is a juicy read re: LE setup. Depending where it sets up, may make a short drive into the core on Friday. 

Looking forward to picking up, perhaps, the largest snowfall of the season. Only have to beat 2.4” - seems doable. 
 

Lake signal looks pretty interesting so far, too. 

Dogs already quite displeased. Going to be a long couple of days…

1 hour ago, King James said:

8.8 for IKK? No chance 

Shows me around 7” and got less than 2” total…

Just took dogs out and, surprisingly, it has whitened up a bit after losing everything this afternoon. Radar isn’t showing much but definitely snowing. Maybe the goods from further N & W being blown in? 

@RCNYILWX - feel like the LOT headline amounts verified for at least a significant portion of the WFO, correct? I know population trumps geography in terms of impacts forecasting, but I honestly think y’all did a great job.

33 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Woof. We made it out with snow cover, though nothing like what was around this morning. It's a gloppy mess that is about to become a glacier. When the rain hit, it became some of the worst working conditions I've had in quite awhile. In the end, the morning was fantastic...the afternoon was horrific.

Just the way things break sometimes. Doesn’t discount the fun that was had in the morning. Things have been rather boring for a long stretch locally. I’ll get excitement from the most average of events. 
 

Agree about the afternoon, though. I was only out and about for a bit and it was downright miserable.

This morning was briefly exciting, but rain throughout the day has eliminated nearly all snowcover. Unless a miracle happens with passing snow showers overnight, we’ll go into the deep cold with a bare ground. Even so, it’s been fun tracking the storm and watching it evolve over the past several days. Congrats to those who cashed in! 

On somewhat of a futility watch - if we don’t get appreciable accumulation in the next two weeks, will be slightly behind the disaster of ‘22-‘23 winter to-date. Nuts. 

6 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

I don't recall my lawn being snow-covered last winter, and it's yet to happen this winter.  I'll start there.  Snow enough to cover the grass. 

Not even from the pre-Christmas heartbreaker?

Sounds like consensus is to throw out all the models. 

19 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

No two storms the same, but the short range meso models (ARW, NSSL, etc) were way too far northwest with the last system at this stage.

Current 0z runs of both, for this upcoming storm, have the slp in and near LAF at 48 hours (971mb ARW, 974mb NSSL).

Probably meaningless, alas...I'm grasping at straws. Just want a little snow cover before the arctic hounds visit.

It’s been trending more favorable, if ever so slightly. On the flip side, betting on a marginal set-up is risky. I think you’ll exit with a solid cover at worst (~3”), but have above 50/50 shot of warning level.

Verbatim best NAM run locally since 0z last night. But the evolution of that run was…something. 

Nice little band in northern lake/northern porter (in) & into will (il). Just hoping something swings this way for a little refresher. An inch might be a long shot but one can wish 

Would rather not be in the money zone this far out, but alas. 
 

Floor for enjoyment would be 2-3” and no rain. Cover the ground a bit and liven up the landscape before the awful cold.