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Blue Dream

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    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

    Normally I would urge caution about being in the bullseye at 10 days out but since we are under that range and this is the euro family depicting this I think it's a solid place to be attm. Looking at hotels in the area now for a road trip. The snow hole moved N to my area this year so I'm chasing this one. I refuse to miss out on another one to my South this winter. 

    Doesn't look like were in the snowhole with this one...according to the mean

    Winter 2018-19 Banter Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

    I think it's funny they can't see the writing on the wall when one of their best posters is saying it doesn't look good. With next week looking like a fail, it seems the pac floodgates open again and the winter of azz rolls full steam ahead.

    Wouldn't say next week is definitely a fail just yet...hasn't it trended a bit better for us?

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Trough goes negative and the trailing low tucks into NY. Extreme gradient solution and extremely unlikely to verify. Fun to look at though and it's not like it's day 10 either. My total guess if it works at all is a nice stripe of 2-4" through the mid atlantic and potential for a bigger hit in the interior NE or even SNE. Trailing waves typically never materialize though. This one is interesting with the TPV dropping in creating an extreme gradient with moisture zipping northward from the deep south. I'm intrigued but my expectations are a light event at best or a redux of today at worst. 

    Thanks for the reply!  Hoping we all get hit in the MA soon

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

    Been a tough year for the northern part of the forum. Wasn't expecting it to go down like this so far. In the fall I thought we were heading for a very good to great winter. This is definitely a your own back yard sport and I would grade my yard a D so far lol. If you take out the November surprise I've had 7 inches total for December and January. Every time it seems like were heading for the great pattern it just gets pushed back even more.

    Even worse up here in SE PA...had an inch since the November storm

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

    Right now if I were to guess it looks like there will be some Miller B potential for a week or so after the 24-25th “Anafront” event. Obviously Miller Bs can be mostly misses around DC/Philly, but there was some signal for on the EPS for a low to develop on one of those arctic fronts. If you can get an arctic wave to dive deep enough S you could get a score. However, towards end of month & early Feb we will likely see some legiit shots at a blockbuster event, especially if the progged block ends up developing. 

    Exciting times ahead. It has been a pretty crap winte here in Philly. Even last night’s event had the heavier stuff stay just Se of the city.   

    I’m with you man, pretty snow starved around these parts. 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    This isnt a bad ops look at this range. Finally a decent look that is moving closer instead of stationary or delayed. The -NAO just a day or so after is epic but I'm trying not to look too far ahead anymore. This alone is 8 days out so yeah this can change too:

     

    gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

    The fact that it’s 8 days out is very encouraging. Usually it’s Day 10-15. What do you think of next week’s threat? 

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

    So where is this -NAO that the SSW was supposed to usher in? Looking like we are mostly positive through the end of the month now with no end in sight. Quickly running out of time on this winter... This is how I felt winter would unwind but I was worried about my forecast with all the SSW talk... now though looks like it didn't do much for us. LR has threats but we'll have to thread the needle and we see how that's working out. This is the worst kind of pattern.... below normal temps and above normal rain.

    The 12z GFS doesn't look bad

    Winter Events Jan 17-20

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

    FWIW I do still believe I95 will cash in at least once BUT I think it will end up later in Feb as the hopefully semi-permanent neg NAO wanes. It may require some painful patience so it is what it is.

    Thanks for the optimism

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