Wurbus

6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

For what it's worth WPC's forecast track for the low. This was issued before 0z though so we'll see if they adjust their track.

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RGEM is still following this path. Model madness continues!

Looking like just some backside snow showers for the valley at this point.

The 00z HRRR just ran the low straight into the mountains and never transferred to the coast. When it ended, it was a 997 low sitting in West Virginia. It's the HRRR at long range....but don't think I've ever seen a low do that before. Needless to say, it wasn't a good run.

20 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I still remember Paul when he said the word Bilzzard back in 93, he was the first TV met in Chatt to use the word in relation to that storm and he was mocked quite a bit for it until the 20" of snow with 6 foot drifts occurred. Would love to get to experience another blizzard of 93.

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I couldn't imagine the excitement this board would have to track a storm like that. Honestly, the servers would probably crash a few times.

NAM was another Apps runner. Screws East TN, but plateau, middle TN, and portions on west TN still do well.

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Unless I am seeing things and it is late, the CMC looks like it is about to be a Miller A.

Yeah, looks good. Check the band over the plateau at 66. Wow!

RGEM looks almost identical to its 18z run

GEFS is not as enthused about middle and west TN.

Live look at the Euro.

I just don't want a WSW for Knox county issued from MRX. If that happens, 99% chance we aren't getting Winter storm warning totals. If they decide to go with a special weather statement or WWA, decent chance it over performs in Knox.

UKMet snow totals below. No love for middle/west TN

My money is on what CMC is showing here. Snow everywhere but the valley with that warm nose. I'll be happy with my 1-2 slushy accumulation and enjoy everyone else's pictures.

Just a slight difference in the Canadian vs GEFS for Nashville and West TN.

GFS went back to the wonky 12z run. Low bouncing all over the place.

That was a cold GFS run. It was below normal temps from 180 to the end of the run.

Won't let me post a screenshot for some reason, but the GEFS mean was 6-10 inches for almost all of East TN, plateau, Nashville, and most of North TN.

GEFS looks pretty good. Definitely some warm nose issues at the beginning of the event for the greater valley, but that is nothing new.

I'll cash that NAV/GEM in now!

For what it's worth (not much), NAM has the Low near Mobile at the end of it's run.

I just created a topic for this storm since it seems we will be tracking it for the next few days and we would stop cluttering this thread.

We have 2 camps at this moment. GFS/CMC is showing the low meandering across TN while it transfers to NC/VA and most everyone in TN gets mostly rain. The other scenario is Euro/UKmet/GEFS showing the low further south into mid-Mississippi and then transferring to around Myrtle Beach and brings all types of wintry precip from Memphis to Kingsport across the state.

GFS

Euro

So Dr. No and UKMet are the only ones saying yes at this point?

CMC is running and it doesn't look good. Low is over Memphis at 102. Looks similar to other OP models at this point

I'll say there are more big dogs for East TN on the GEFS that I thought there was going to be. I feel like this system is truly a boom or bust system though and will likely be more of a bust for most of us.