McDowell_Weather

33°/32° nice cold rain saved by the bell i hate zr

36°/34°

21 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Also colder here than latest HRRR run depicting.  We were already at 39 in Union County for this 03z image which has the 40 degree line well north of us....

And down to 38/38 now which is probably a good 3 hours ahead of when the HRRR has us getting there  

Its giving us the classic finger lol

National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure crossing New England tonight will create a cool
wedge of air into the Carolinas as low pressure approaches from the
south with widespread rain.  Freezing rain and sleet also will
develop where temperatures fall to near or below freezing. Cool and
dry high pressure moves over our region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1050 PM: Widespread light rain has filled in across the FA
with freezing rain noted across elevations above 3000 to 4000 feet.
Have tweaked winds, mainly across higher elevations where gusts
between 30 to 40 mph are likely later tonight. Otherwise the
forecast continues to be in remarkably good agreement with
observations. Some of the latest guidance comes in a touch colder
than what is currently forecast tonight. This will be watched
closely, especially mountains and foothills where freezing precip is
of highest concern.

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Really shocked you’re at 42. I’m already at 38 down here. 

Gsp said after midnight till we get around freezing for our area i guess well see...

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’m not usually Mr negative. But right now I smell big bust for most of the area including all the way up my way. I’m currently at 42/29. Based on wet bulb my temp only gets down to 37. I’m not sure if I’m missing something, as I am all over this stuff constantly but to me thus far the CAD is over modeled. Anyone have anything different to add?

I feel ya its just climo...

8 minutes ago, Boonelight said:

This isn’t a banter thread though, so I’ll return it to the regular people. Just wanted to introduce myself and hope I can contribute to the community. 

33° 8m E Boone 

This is our own thread say whatever you want bud.

39°/36°

6 minutes ago, Boonelight said:

It’s 33 here, waiting on the ice and sleet. I’m about 8 miles east of Boone, between Rutherwood and Deep Gap. I’m new here, but I’d love to be a part of the mountain crew! 

Welcome aboard, im heath btw.

4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

To find the wet-bulb temperature you take the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point and divide it by 3. Then you subtract it from the actual temp. In other words a temp of 42 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees would yield a wet bulb of 38 degrees. This is a down and dirty way of knowing what you will be able to achieve by evaporational cooling from precipitation. 

thanks man learned somthing new i always wondered the math behind it.

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Going to be close. Razor thin margin of error. 

You ain't kidding bro I got headache from going through the sounding's tricky forecast. I'm leaning with climatology on this one its just to early ill gladly eat crow thou lol

41°/34° light rain

40 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Educate me on this. What is deal with dew points?  Trying to understand. 

BTW we are at 27 dew point. 

 

Its the temperature at witch air can no longer hold water vapor that turns to liquid the dew point is always equal too or lower than the temperature. In this case the lower the dp the better if you like ice/sleet. For Example. If your outside temp is 40° and dp is 30° As rain begins to fall it cools the atmosphere to near the dp temp to achieve 100% humidity. So your temp basically will be equal or a degree or two higher of the dewpoint. I'm not a great teacher sorry just a country boy lol

12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I've had the DP map pulled up all day and noticed just in the last hour or so the 20(s) DPs are starting to ooze southward in central virginia.  Actually made a strong push along the coast and sandhills.  This should be fun to watch CAD at work so early in the season.

Funny u said that I've been watching the same thing its the small details with a system like this.

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I think normally this would be a blowout event for the region but the CAD is minimal for most of NC (low DPs are hung up in VA with only the border counties in NC looking good).  I think we will see a mix even here in the central triad overnight but nothing to show for it.  Even at my mountain house in Patrick county there is an elevation dependent WSW.  Over 2500' looking for up to 2" of sleet.  Under 2500' likely a mix with little to no accums.  This will be a "close but no cigar" event for 99% of this board in NC.  

The radar looks ominous though for ongoing flooding.  We need a major break next week.

This is almost as good as it get with cad pretty strong textbook setup its just November. I think sleet could possibly surprise and beat some expectations.

2 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Dewpoint down to 32 from 40 just a little while ago. 

That's a good dip your area closer to the blue ridge can get a lot of ice thank goodness its November.

Hrr during the heaviest  precp so close......I wish it was dec..

45° rain/sleet

8 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Starting to get worried about sleet around here in Asheville. 3km NAM is even colder a 850mb. Surface temps look to stay in the low 30’s per NAM, but RGEM is colder. Will all depend on how deep the frozen layer is above your house. If you are getting sleet, it’s cold enough and deep enough to re-freeze the precipitation. If you by chance have snow, then your 700mb temps are not warm enough to initially melt the precipitation. If your surface temps are below freezing but it’s raining, the frozen layer is not deep enough to re-freeze the precip. I am very interested to see how this unfolds.

Hey man hope all is well. How good is the wrf model 0z showed pockets of sub 850s and 700mb?

8 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Gonna be rough tomorrow night regardless, gonna stock up on the essentials; Coronas. Anyways, the FV3 or whatever it's called has some interesting gulf lows at the end of the month, this is shaping up to possibly be a big start to winter, maybe not just this week.

I agree I haven't been this excited. Since 09/10

16 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Anyone got a clown shovel I could use?

I'd like to see that verify in my lifetime we got 20in in 93 I was two so I don't remember.

Nam starting to lock in almost identical to previous runs. Most of the piedmont is sitting around 33° wouldn't be surprised to see zr back toward Winston hp is in a good spot.

0z nam coming in a tick colder on dps for foothills 

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I wasn’t overly concerned until I saw the past few runs of the RGEM along with the fact that the other global models ticking a degree colder (which is to be expected in CAD events).  

Never fails I'm growing confident well keep some sleet for awhile. But even .25 of zr would be bad to many leaves left.