Rockem_sockem_connection

Nothing to report here. It will be all rain. RIP thread.

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain

No one ever knows... not sure why they even make predictions about winter in October. Last winter they came true because of ONE storm. Just lol. Forecasting is a joke now, they actually show you every model run on the news. Does anyone recall that 15 years ago? I honestly don't, not like today. There's more data ad everything is more complicated, but it doesn't seem to make predicting the weather any better.

As soon as it started looking like freezing rain we should of all checked out. We don't get freezing rain like that here very often. It could of swing the other way I suppose but I'm not really surprised at any of this. Blame the people who yelled GREAT PATTERN two or three weeks ago. A great pattern doesn't include a decently positive NAO. Artic air, A negative NAO, and a solid Miller A on the models 10 days out would be grounds for excitement.

Non event for me and I'm not mad. FRZ isn't fun. All the rain will freeze after the fact though, interested in seeing how that plays out. 

This is a typical positive NAO setup. Everyone who got their weenie goggles on was always fooling themselves.

Awesome! This was a lousy year in the surf. Worst I may have ever had. Maybe we'll wet lines sometime man. 

Yes. Pretty avid hardcore surf fisherman. I hit the rivers in spring early and follow the striper migration then move down into lower Delaware Bay mid April thru very early May then move to the beaches and catch the run of black drum, blues, and of course the stripers moving thru. Then flounder and weakies most of summer with surf kingfish by July. I usually relax late July thru mid to late August then gear up for the fall mullet run and subsequently blues and stripers. So yeah, I fish a little.

Striped bass run in t-minus 2 months!!

I briefly went to school for meteorology because I love tracking snow. I ended up switching majors and financially it's been amazing, but I still love tracking storms. I hate driving in it and I hate those storms where it just lingers on the road and you end up parking on ice piles for days. I'm NOT a winter guy at all. I love the beach and fishing, t shirts and shorts. Hate winter. This winter is useless too since it's COLD but not snowy. Let's just get to spring already. Bring on the fish!!!

41 minutes ago, mrweissm said:

Halfway through meteorological winter as of today.

"meteorlogical"

Real seasons: May through September = Summer, October = Fall, November through March = Winter, and April = Spring. Change my mind!

Until I actually see the sustained neg NAO and other modeled teleconnections actually verify I will always have doubts I guess. LR has been slightly better recently but bad taste in my mouth still from 6 weeks ago or so. Cautiously optimistic is my mantra this year as well as seeing is believing. Models can be as persistent as they want but doesnt always mean they are right. One of the fears I've mentioned on here quite a bit recently is that when/if this nao flip happens we go dry as the stj quiets down. There are for the first time signs of this happening now via the euro family of LR guidance. Trying to stick mid range but hard not to look LR in this hobby as well. Again....cautious optimism. I would much rather have the modeled looks in the LR than have a total puke PAC and N Atl with progressive torch.

Upcoming "threats" quickly becoming upcoming LOLs

2.25" in GLOCO outside Philly. Final total. Very interesting to see some folks in the neighboring PA counties do a sizeable amount more! 

1.5" in GloCo NJ

What is a jebwalk

Very fine light snow still. .25 inches gloco

Snow in GLOCO

Thanks for the reply. My brother warned of the road reversal stuff and said it's tough to call right now. I don't get a lot of vacation time and otherwise wouldn't see him until Christmas when he came up here so I don't want to cancel if I don't have to.

There is still a chance this gets dangerously close to Charleston. Don’t get hung up on the weather weenies here posting each model run as gospel. Charleston is still well within the cone of uncertainty. The models will continue to shift. By Tuesday it should be much clearer as to where this will go and I think you’ll be in a better position to make a call or not to come down to Charleston (I live in downtown CHS btw). If it’s looking like a likely major impact, they will issue evacuation for our area and all of the freeways will be reversed and a **** ton of people go to grocery stores and gas stations at the same time and it will be a little nuts. They would likely make the evacuation call by Wednesday. Went through this with Matthew a few years ago, which wasn’t even that bad of a hurricane. This could be much worse depending on where it lands. Follow official NHC forecasts, not weather weenies, and follow the local news here in chs (twitter is good place to get local news alerts). If it were me, I would definitely continue to plan on coming here as of now, and make the call to come or not on Tuesday.


.

Hopefully this thing goes out to sea. I need some advice but my problems are not even close to what Carolina residents have to deal with, but I am still in need of help.

I'm flying into CHS from Philly Wednesday morning to visit my brother, and am supposed to go back Saturday morning. I only go down once a year really and we're supposed to go to an indoor concert in Charleston Friday. Seems like that will get cancelled and I'll get stuck at the airport Saturday. Perhaps I just shouldn't go? I have no experience with this kind of thing at all, and this is only my second time flying.

No idea why winter outlooks are a thing. No one ever has a clue. No one is ever going to call for a monstrous winter nor an extremely bleak winter. You mostly just see average or slightly above/below. Seems like it's just an unnecessary thing to predict honestly.

Thank you for the informed post.

13 hours ago, MGorse said:

Are you an expert weather forecaster? There is a ridiculous amount of model data available now, and in my opinion this can certainly cause problems. I have been a meteorologist for the NWS now for over a decade and there is only so much time to look at model guidance and coordinate with neighboring offices and national centers, plus to complete all the forecast database grid editing. More and more data but not more time to look at it. 

Very interesting, as I did mention this already but was interested to learn some insight from an insider. This is totally a loaded question, but in your mind, why is it that many TV meteorologist sided with data coming from the models with more conservative solutions, as opposed to the more aggressive solutions offered by other models? What kind of comparison goes on with current atmospheric conditions versus what is likely to happen, and why did some models simply not pick up on what actually occurred? An unrealistic question I am sure to ask, as it probably requires a lot of details to explain that we likely cannot even understand - but if you could entertain this just a bit I think it would be awesome.

I do find the NWS to be quite good as well - to add to what others have said.

I would just be curious to know what goes into a forecast. We are perceiving that forecasting was more accurate at another period of time, but is that actually true? If it is true, why is it? Is it because weather models have become less reliable, or because more models are available than ever and meteorologist are being forced to pick and choose which they think are right? Aside from weather models, what else goes into a forecast? Different atmospheric conditions are looked at like the AO and NAO, and those are even discussed on here. Are models relied on too much do you think? Possible perhaps, but it would take an insider from the business to really give proper insight to the matter as to what has changed from a forecasting perspective over the years.

Someone could go back and look at each model, and determine the conservative models were suffering some sort of misinterpretation of data, and go into detail about what actually occurred instead. It would be up to the scientist/programmers to continue to improve weather models to increase accuracy, but I do believe the weather is just too tricky to ever be nailed down to a T from a computer model - at least at the moment. It would be up to the meteorologist of the world to look at current conditions and rely on experience to determine what is actually going to happen. A tough task indeed, and beyond my scope of knowledge for sure. I would be curious to learn about what the Euro/GFS/etc were seeing differently from what actually panned out, and why many meteorologist did not go with the solutions of the more amped models. Perhaps for no other reason than that it is safer to go with conservative numbers?

Forecasting is most certainly not very good these days. We all know the models are back/forth, back/forth, etc making it tough to predict. I briefly attended school for meteorology, but switched majors. Had I stuck with it, I would like to believe I would of learned a ton about atmospheric science itself, and not just how to read weather models. Perhaps the models sincerely are not very good (news flash: they are not, because not one is consistently correct) and perhaps meteorologist today rely too much on them instead of applying what they know, combined with their years of experience, to analyze current atmospheric conditions to determine what may happen in the future? Hard to say of course. We all understand no one wants to get caught calling for a blizzard only for it to bust (this just happened in recent history again though!), but I seem to recall watching Rob Guarino as a kid, and him always having more thoughts on upcoming storms before anyone else, and really did a good job of teaching viewers at home. Something has changed, but I am unsure of what that is. I know for a fact these guys can't pull up the NAM/EURO/GFS and that is it - right? There is most certainly some sort of art that has been lost along the way here, without a doubt. The forecast from all of these TV meteorologist called for conservative numbers based off of certain models. What did the NAM see that those other models did not, and why did the TV meteorologists not pick up on this? I just know there's more to the gig than staring at models and putting your faith into a solution based off of a few of them. So much science behind weather, but it just isn't being put to use.

I have been lurking for years and know he pops up on here. All I said was "classic guy" so if he dislikes that, it's whatever I suppose. VERY difficult storm to forecast, I have zero problems with any mets who were wrong. I just dislike when the media tries to pretend that they were right, when they were wrong is all. Is that acceptable for me to feel that way? Don't put up a map saying everyone got 2-4" in an area, when literally everyone got over 4" in that particular zone! Tell me totals were higher than expected to due X Y Z but that general gradient for higher/lower snow amounts followed exactly as forecasted. Boom, everyone wins. You're honest but still somewhat correct, we're informed and learn something, everyone goes home happy. Or tell me I got 2-4" just like you predicted, when I am looking in my back yard and everyone else's backyard online and seeing otherwise lol. It's alright, I hardly watch the news anyway. He's got years and years of good experience, no one questions whether or not he knows his stuff, so I hope he doesn't feel like he needs to prove himself by pulling these kind of stunts because no one will get mad about a busted forecast by a few inches.