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Tater Tot

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    The "Double Trouble" Banter Thread

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    What would "non-quick" thoughts look like?

    Few quick thoughts...

     

    1) Comments about splitting hairs. This is a WEATHER website. To talk about the details. If we were interested in the big picture, that is, large destructive hurricane, and DID NOT care about comparing it to other storms, combing through models, wondering about this or that mesovortex, we could read NOAAs discussion or follow TWC and go on our merry way. This is a weather weenie website primarily, to discuss the details. If not here, there is no place else. That said, there is intelligent banter, and, creative banter. Throwing stuff out because you know some big words but don't know how they fit together, isn't helpful. 

     

    2) People DO see what they want to see. Some mets and folks want a weak storm. No one "wants" a strong storm, but, on some visceral level, again, no one would be here if it was a clear sunny day. Rocket scientists like big rockets. Astronomers like big telescopes. Meteorology folks are interested by severe events. The more severe, the more they're interested. That's human psychology. Everyone, deep down, looks at that car crash when they pass, trying to get a view and slowing everyone else down. Same with storms. The sheer power and awe that that causes in humans is why human's always pay attention to "bad" events. News events are the same way. Boring? bleh. Major? Bring on the carnage, where's the popcorn. Humans are a fairly savage species, and beneath all of the pleasant "oh good golly gosh I sure do hope this all goes away", when no one looks, most watch the damage, whatever that damage is. Reality shows are a giant hit for a reason. I'm not saying that to justify the behavior, but when you see people in the forum foaming over these details...that's why. Good or bad. It is human.

    3) The eyewall is likely undergoing, or was trying to undergo elements of a replacement cycle. This is easy to spot. There was (until recently) a lot of lightning around the eyewall, which is a hallmark of eyewall replacement cycles. Most hurricanes do not have much lightning surrounding the eye. It is in the outer bands. Lightning around the eye, with deformation of the eye's axis, indicate instability of the eye, and possible initiation of a replacement, which seems to have started around 1.5 hours-2 hours ago. Lightning with no deformation can just indicate an incredibly strong and still strengthening storm. Here we have deformation and lightning...replacement. Almost all major hurricanes of this strength undergo one, particularly when some type of synoptic forcing mechanism is present and even more particularly after a period of rapid intensification. The degree to which Laura strengthened and the rapidity were both off-the-charts high. That means, an eyewall replacement is likely. However, once one starts, they usually take around 12 hours to complete. Within that time, you have concentric eyewalls. Typically this occurs whenthe storms surrounding the eye tighten and choke the inner circulation. That was the case earlier, but, for somewhat interesting reasons, a portion of the eye weakened to the south, in effect sort of stopping this "choking" process, BUT also, weakening the eye a bit. This leads to two possible future outcomes, either the eyewall replacement cycle will continue and the storm WILL weaken a bit before landfall, likely at a low end cat 4 strength or in a maximum reduction scenario upper 3...which has been noted by almost every single NHC update...or, the opening will slow down the process, the northern eye will continue to keep itself together and reorganize a tight southern eyewall by landfall, keeping the storm at upper 4 strength. Paradoxically, by having this opening, the storm may actually be stronger than it would otherwise be, if a full replacement cycle were able to occur. In either case, upgrading to cat 5 is highly unlikely. The SFMR winds, do not show continued strengthening, and shear is increasing a bit. This is all offset by stupid warm water temps. That's the story of this year, and it means more storms WILL follow Laura, some likely major. A wave just left Africa today. Hurricanes conceptually exist as a transporter of momentum and heat from the equator (where there is more), to the mid-lats (where there is less). The likely scenario is maintenance of category to landfall. That may disappoint all the carnal folks (see #2) that are wishcasting a cat 5 but that isn't the job of meteorologists. The job is, forecast and accurately describe the weather. Views/dreams/hopes are not relevant to forecasting and delineate the difference between the NWS, and this forum. One thing I do, when I realize I'm looking at a situation with bias in any direction, is I try to first imagine the opposite outcome happening. I want something to go one way, I imagine it does the exact opposite-weather or otherwise. That gets me out of wish mode and into objective mode. I've seen the other side of the coin so I can be more objective. So, folks, imagine for a minute before landfall this downgrades to a high end cat 2. Get out your yay's and oh noes or thank goodnesses or whatever is deep inside of you. Once you do that, come back to looking at the data, and you'll be more objective in figuring this all out. 

     

    Cheers,

     

    Moderately Unstable

    Non-quick thoughts = more pages than Les Misérables

    • Haha 1

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

      

    Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
734 PM EDT Thu May 30 2019

VAC177-630-302345-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-190530T2345Z/
City of Fredericksburg VA-Spotsylvania VA-
734 PM EDT Thu May 30 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN CITY OF
FREDERICKSBURG...

At 733 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Massaponax, or 7
miles south of Fredericksburg, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters observed a tornado.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying
         debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.
         Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile
         homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Spotsylvania County and the southern City of
Fredericksburg, including the following locations... Thornburg, Snell
and Alsop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 7766 3827 7765 3830 7755 3830 7747
      3829 7745 3828 7745 3828 7744 3826 7742
      3824 7739 3825 7738 3825 7737 3811 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 274DEG 36KT 3820 7751

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.00IN

$$

RCM

     

     

     

    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, mappy said:

    are you new here? we get 50 page threads for flurries in the winter. why would severe weather be any different? 

    I know, I think I'm just noticing the contrast between this thread and the midwest/ohio valley threads where they've been having tornado outbreaks with about 20 people in the thread lol.

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