.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022
High Impact Weather Potential: Large storm system with impactful
weather to northern Michigan possible Friday-Saturday with lake
effect and colder weather behind the departing system.
Long term models are continuing to come together with a storm system
that develops in the central Great Plains and moves into the
southern Great Lakes region. There are still uncertainties in the
exact track of this system, which would have a great impact on p-
type and amounts. The current track would definitely produce snow
with possibly a quick period of a wintry mix on the front side
Friday over northern Michigan...but as stated already...still quite
a bit of uncertainty. The storm at this time is forecast to drop
between 27-31mb (depending on model) to become a 967-969mb surface
low in a 24 hour period from Thursday night to Friday night. This is
considerable strengthening (bombogenesis) as it is tracks over/near
the Detroit area and up Lake Huron. This will end up being quite a
storm wherever it impacts, with heavy accumulating and blowing snow
and strong winds in the heart of the storm. Wind will be very
strong...the GFS has the strongest wind gusts...which has hit
hurricane strength along the Lake Michigan shoreline the past four
runs. Regardless of this storm system`s track being either more
north, south, east, or west this will be a very impactful storm to
northern Michigan...possibly historic. It`s also safe to say that
much colder air would move in behind the departing system by the end
of the work week producing lake effect snow at times and some single
digit lows behind this departing storm system.
Gaylord has very strong wording on the wind gusts. Curious if that will translate further down the shoreline. Crazy reading most of these AFD's!