raindancewx

Looks like Sept 2016 is a pretty good match for Sept 1931 + Sept 2005. Usually a lot harder to produce a decent match than from just using two years. Those of you in TX shouldn't look at the winter though...

This thread needs a bump. Starting to get a bit psyched for the winter - had highs in the low 60s the other day. August & October is already wetter than last year, which favors bigger late season snows here. In Albuquerque we're up to 1.58" for Aug & Oct, and nearly at the monthly average for October rainfall already. If we get another 1.1" precipitation in October, March starts to look good for us in the SW.

Here is my Monsoon season (June 16-Sept 30) review for Albuquerque, with some early thoughts on winter: Monsoon Highlights for Albuquerque: June & July: Hot Enough To Make the Devil Cry: - Mean Highs in June & July were 3-4F above normal - 32 days with highs of 95F or hotter in June & July (1931-2015 normal: 18) - Extremely dry from June 16-July 28: 0.30" rain...against 1.75" normal The Wet Week: - July 29 - Aug 4: 1.34" rain (normal: 0.42") August: - Not that wet in Albuquerque (0.86") but wet almost everywhere else in NM - Cold: Lowest temperature of 55F was w/in 5F of August record low (1931-2015) - Cold: Lowest mean lows since 1992 - Cold: Mean high of 85.8F well below 1931-2015 mean of 89.3F (-3.5F) September: - Moist: 1.04" precipitation in Albuquerque (exactly 1931-2015 average) - Mild: Mean high of 83.2F (Historical Sept mean high = 82.6F) - Warm: After not reaching 95F in Aug, it got to >=90F in ABQ two times - Vs. Last Sept: Much colder - it never dropped below 55F in Sept 2015, was >=90F nine times (!) - Near Record Cold: Lowest temperature of 42F was within 7F of Sept record low (1931-2015) Overall June 16-Sept 30 2016: - 3.09" rain (4.31" = 1931-2015 normal) - Biggest mean high drop off ever from July to August (1892-2015), 95.6F to 85.8F - June 16-July 28: 17.1% of normal rain - July 29-Aug 4: 3.2x normal rain - Aug 5-Sept 30: 1.47" rain (2.42" normal) - Near reverse of June-Sept 2015: Hot early, cool late. Early Winter Thoughts: - Oct/Nov snow unlikely - a warm/very wet Oct would favor a big Feb-Mar for snow though. Nov may be wet. - December likely warm & dry (it tends to behave similarly to June 16-July 15) - January likely cold and wet (tends to be similar to July 16-Aug 15) - February likely near average (mild, moist). Snowy if Oct mean highs drop <=9.6F from Sept mean highs - March likely mild & dry (moisture favored when Aug & Oct see lots of rain, Aug was dry in ABQ) - April likely cold & moist (one notable snow (>=2") more likely than usual) - May likely mild & dry (we've had three cold Mays in a row) - Pattern of frequent light snow, not one or two big storms - Outside chance pattern mimicks 1958/1959 and we get a huge snowstorm in December, in a very warm Dec. - Years of most similar Summer high temperatures (June-Sept) favor a lot of snow in Feb. - If winter highs mimicked Summer, would see near record heat early (Dec) follwed by major cold snap (Jan/Feb). - If lows mimicked Summer, would see near/record lows late in season Jan 15-Mar 15. - Pattern looks disfavorable to snow during the day, but should be efficient for snow at night. If significant snow is to fall, best bet is Jan 15-Apr 15. Oct-May season likely below average though. Will release a cold season (Oct-May) forecast soon. Spring likely dry.

I wrote to Nate Mantua earlier this week, and he said the PDO value for August was 0.52, even though it hasn't updated on here - http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest I'm going with a neutral (slightly positive) PDO for the winter. It does look pretty mixed up at the moment with the cold ring along the West coast that is consistent with a -PDO half there, but half not, and the patches of warm/cool anomalies not truly positive everywhere.

I was playing around with some stuff earlier - seems like all but one of Albuquerque's greatest snows in February are clustered following years when the mean high at the airport drops by <=9.6F from Sept->Oct. October mean high ranges from even with September to 21F colder than September here, so <=9.6F is actually the smallest third of the drop-offs. We actually average 2.7" inches of snow in February with a small drop off, against only 1.2" in years with a big drop off (>=12.9F). Will be interesting to see how that plays out with Sept/Oct. The mean high here is likely to be ~82F to 84F for September, so a low drop (<=9.6F) from Sept to Oct would favor a warm or near average (not cold) October and a cold October would likely favor less snow in February (0-6"). The five >=6" Februarys all fall in years when the mean high drops ~7.7F to ~9.8F Sept-->Oct. The flip-side is...if we have a huge drop off in temperature Sept-->Oct, it is likely because it rained a lot in October. So if we drop off a lot but get say, 1.8"+ precipitation, that would favor March snow, not February. Our greatest March snowstorms come when rain in August and rain in October total >=2.69". Ideal really would be a warm/wet October - 2 inches of rain, down only 8F-9F or so from September. Would favor February & March for 3"+ snowstorms.

My best guess in Texas will see a couple incredible cold shots in the winter, but overall a warm winter (>=2F+) from Dallas and south. This is what I have tentatively. I want to see the Aug PDO number - my local NWS says it is 0.52 for August (Univ Wash) but the figure isn't in yet when I go to the site. I was playing around with the PDO and the tendency is quite clear from 1951-2010: PDO+: Cold in the East, mild from El Paso to Billings, warm west of El Paso to Billings PDO-: Cold west of the continental divide, warm east of the continental divide PDO=: Cold centered on TX, but from the NM/AZ border to Louisiana, and then up to Iowa and Wyoming, with everyone else warm. Essentially...PDO borderline positive/neutral (average to cold for us!) offset by La Nina (warm to average for us!), offset by warm AMO/SE ridge for much of Texas.

I have done a bunch of research for this winter and I generally have the following observations: - Cold shots tend to migrate from west to east to west to east in PDO neutral years. This favors Midwest cold. - NYC, Philly, DC, Richmond - they've all had three winters in a row of above average snowfall. It's hard to get four historically (should occur 2-3 times a century statistically, 0.40^4). - Places like Flagstaff and others west of the Continental Divide have had two to four bad years in a row for snow. Unlikely to continue. - Hasn't been cold in the East in December in several years, hasn't been warm in December in the West for several years. All in all, I like the Central third of the US, particularly north of Chicago and Cheyenne for cold/lots of snow this winter.

Rains last week were pretty good at killing some of the drought in Southern/Eastern New Mexico. Also, the JMA (Japan) has agreed with NOAA that the PDO had a big drop from July to August - both show the PDO at essentially neutral (near 0) for August 2016. Still waiting on JISAO.

Pretty good rains today for much of Northern New Mexico. Monsoon for Albuquerque has corrected back towards normal substantially after today: now its ~bottom quarter rather than ~bottom 15%. May get more rains this week. Odds of a wet monsoon are back up to ~11.7% for Albuquerque.

I only went back to 1931, but the years closest to ONI in JJA 2016 (-0.3), i.e. -0.2 to -0.4, are 1945, 1946, 1948, 1959, 1978, 1981, 1984, 1989, 1995, 1996, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013. In the DJF season after the JJA season, those years averaged -0.42 for DJF, and the median is like -0.45. I'm expecting ONI in DJF to be between 0.0 and -1.0 - so for me I like weak La Nina years and cold Neutral years as analogs. Also think the peak (in La Nina territory) may come early, say SON, or OND, at -0.6 or -0.7 before fading to -0.3 or -0.4 for DJF.

Hurricane Newton is about to hit Mexico - should bring a lot of rain to Southern AZ/Southern NM and squash any attempt of the ridge of death from scouring out moisture after a relatively cold/wet August. September is wetter than the long-term average in La Nina years in Albuquerque, so will be curious to see if we knock out a quick inch from Newton. I'm a bit conflicted, last year we were having a bone-dry Aug/Sept and then a tropical depression saved September, and pushed the monsoon from "dry" to "wet". Completely screwed up my snow calculator in Albuquerque based on summer conditions - jumped from 10"-->15.7" once we topped 4.3" rain on Sept 22...and we got 10".

Weatherbell put up like five analog packages for the winter: DJF - consensus between D'aleo/Bastardi/Downs DJF - pioneer model (based on D'aleo correlating zones in the oceans w/ winter temps) DJF - "sensible analogs" combining a weak Modoki La Nina with a warm western Atlantic NDJ - analogs JFM - analogs The maps are interesting - they have a sharp split in NM, with the ~NE 1/4 of NM snowier than normal, but the SW 1/2 of NM less snowy than normal. I would say I'm right on the edge of being "normal" and "below normal". That does seem about right, most of the objective comparisons I come up with have ~7-9" for Albuquerque, against a long-term normal of 9.6". 7-9" is actually above average for a La Nina though. The maps have North Texas and most of Oklahoma doing well for snow. The pioneer model does match SW precipitation patterns pretty well this monsoon, even though it is too cool for July / too warm for Aug against what we observed, but seems like the best match for winter. Seems like it's a slightly warm winter in NM - but the warmth (+3 to +5F) is centered near the NV/ID border. New Mexico is more like +0 to +2F.

Have to keep our eyes on the tropics nowadays - the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico could still veer west to LA/TX. Looks like August 2016 is going to be just about the same temperature as September 2015 - which means it's a pretty cold month. We're at 86.2F through 28 days for the mean high, tied with September 2015 - with three more days for the mean high to drop slightly. Mean low is still a touch warmer than Sept 2015 here, but will likely end up very close to Sept 15 too. I figure w/ the Aug mean high colder than Sept 15, and the mean low warmer than Sept 15, the mean temperature for Aug 16 should just about equal Sept 15.

I was running some figures for the SW, and it seems like in most locations, September is always colder than August in terms of mean highs. That favors September being either near average or cold out here. From 1931-2015, every September in Albuquerque was 1F to 12F colder than August. "Cold" Augusts in La Nina and Neutral years seem to drop off by ~1-8F over the past 85 years. If you blend it all together, the best bet would be a drop of 5F, with September ending up ~1.5F below normal, after August ends up ~2.5 to ~3.5 below normal. The years I'm looking at are 1933, 1935, 1961, 1967, 1971, 1974, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1999 for August in the SW. My somewhat rigorous odds imply ~5% chance of a warm September in the SW (>=+2F v. mean highs) and maybe a 55% chance of near normal (+/-2F) and a ~40% chance of cooler than normal (-2F or less v. mean highs).

Another blazing hot day here in the Southwest, almost got 80F today in Albuquerque. Mean high in August is now down to 86.8F for Albuquerque - huge drop of 8.6F from mean highs in July to mean highs in August so far. From 1892-1930, the biggest drop off in Albuquerque was 7.4F, and from 1931-2015, the biggest drop off was 7.6F. So will be interesting to see how low we will go. Will probably fall back into the mid-50s tonight, assuring tomorrow is fairly cool too.

Any of you have thoughts on a Fall (Sept-Nov) forecast? I don't have a method for analogue-ing Fall, so this is just my guess. I think the rex-block in the Pacific that has had the NW hot lately is semi-permanent for about half the fall, but will get moved by Pacific typhoons eventually. I have AZ and the MW cool, due to monsoonal moisture (it's been quite strong in much of AZ), and I have the +PDO sending cool shots down the middle of the US throughout the Fall. Also think that with cool water off California surrounded by warm water, that storms may intensify to some degree as they come to California, and so Southern California may get a fair amount of rain this fall, particularly after Nov 1. In the East, I buy into the warm AMO/western Atlantic keeping the warmth in place to mid-October. For New Mexico, I think the wet signal (+PDO) is strong enough to overcome the weak dry signal (weak La Nina at best), especially as the +AMO gets drained of it's influence to some extent by hurricanes cooling the ocean. I try to put in precip/temp anamoly lines so people can see if they are say, hot/wet v. cold/wet too.

It's apparently fall here in New Mexico, with snow last night at 12,000 feet, and temperatures in the 70s all afternoon in Albuquerque.

Bastardi (this has been posted publicly, so it's OK to share it), had three main analogs for Winter 16-17: 58-59 59-60 93-94 If you map those years the SSTA are damned close to now. But he thought the Atlantic was too cold in those years, so he throws in 2011-12, 2013-14, and 1995-96. He is going to update the winter forecast by the end of this month though. With the weighting he had this: 1958-59 x2 1959-60 x2 1993-94 x2 2011-12 2013-14 1995-96 This winter is a bit tricky, probably need years with the PDO Neutral and Positive, AMO Neutral and Positive, and ENSO Neutral and Negative to come up with a useful holistic match. I lean towards a cold fall and a slightly cooler than normal winter for the SW at the moment.

PDO just came in for July 2016 - down to 1.25 from JISAO. Well below last July. Suspect August will be down again too, given that there is cold water off the US West Coast. I was mapping my coldest winters (ABQ) and warmest winters by SSTA (1981-2010 base) today, and it looks OK for winter, two of the four regions support cold winters right now. Warmth between Iceland/Greenland shows up as an Ocean feature in cold Dec-Feb winters, we have that now. Cold waters on the West Coast support a cold winter too. Borderline La Nina is bad, as is the warmth in the North Central Pacific, but all in all, not terrible looking right now. The cooler West Coast waters and strong monsoon in AZ make me think at least parts of the SW will have a wet winter too. The drop off in July-Aug temps has been fairly massive too which helps.

AMO value for July is in: 0.445. Highest in any month since Sept 2012. NOAA had the July PDO value at 0.18, way down from last July. PDO signature to me actually looks slightly negative of neutral right now, with a cold ring of waters surrounding a warm tongue. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ It's not great to have a -PDO, La Nina, and AMO+ for the SW, in fact it's probably our worst possible pattern, so I'm hoping the hurricane season ramps up quickly, cools the Atlantic with upwelling, and then the PDO only falls to neutral for (+/-0.5) for Nov-Apr and that we end up in a weak La Nina Modoki or a cold-Neutral. It has been wet here in August, which is usually a good sign even in La Nina cold seasons. March precip is strongly tied to August & October precip regardless of ENSO state.

If you go to Weather Trends 360 and play with the maps, the Northern/Western Atlantic is much warmer, the eastern Atlantic is colder, the tropical Pacific and Eastern Pacific (although not he Gulf of Alaska) is also a lot colder. For some reason the Gulf of California the waters off Central Mexico are warmer. So I'm thinking the interior SW (NM/AZ) may actually have a colder (Pacific is colder) but still wet winter (since Gulf of California is still warm)

Right on cue, the monsoon is back in business (up to ~1.5" rain here in ABQ), with more coming in August looks like. May be some tropical action for TX in the next week to ten days it looks like. Could impact Mexico too, early days yet.

One big thing to watch in the coming weeks is whether the monsoon returns with a vengeance to NM/CO/West TX. July before Neutral winter is often (47% of the time) pretty dry (<=1" rain in Albuquerque), but July before a La Nina is pretty rarely dry (<=1" rain in ABQ just 19% of the time). The difference is statistically significant in terms of rejecting the idea that the frequency of dry Julys is the same before La Nina and Neutral - it isn't true - Neutral is drier in July. In the Neutral years with a dry July, the monsoon almost always returns with ferocity in August, while in La Nina...it doesn't. I lean towards the winter being a Neutral now, so we'll have to see what August does, but my hunch is the monsoon comes back pretty strongly.

The AMO (ESRL/Kaplan) came in at 0.423 for June 2016 - highest June value since 2010. Likely high enough to all but assure it remains positive in the cold season. Not many winters with a PDO+, AMO+, cold Neutral to strong La Nina.

June highs here were closest to 1953, 1956, 1958, 1981, 2002, 2011. Not a horrible match for June 2016 either.