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WeatherHawk

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    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

    I really hope we have seen the last of that. Sure we will have some wobbles with each model run but I can deal with that.

    Yep, I’m feeling good about the gfs and euro…especially when they start quilting mirrors.  Love the chase tho’-especially when we can have a lot of folks that can cash in.  

    • Like 2

    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

    New MD covers the NW corner of the state. Another MD just a hundred miles east for a severe watch possibility. 

     

    MD 28 graphic 
       Mesoscale Discussion 0028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0413 AM CST Mon Jan 03 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest through northern Virginia and
   central Maryland

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 031013Z - 031415Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates around 1-2 inches per hour and
   occasionally greater appear increasingly possible along and to the
   east of the Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains, into the Greater
   Washington D.C. and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, through 7-10 AM
   EST.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation rates have increased along a frontal zone
   north through north-northeast of a deepening surface cyclone center
   across the South Carolina Piedmont.  Although temperatures near the
   surface and in layers aloft are generally still warm to the east of
   the Appalachians, across much of the southern Mid Atlantic, a
   combination of strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and
   gradual low-level cold advection on northerly surface flow is likely
   to contribute to profiles increasingly conducive to snow.

   Surface temperatures are already approaching freezing across much of
   the Greater Baltimore and Washington D.C. metro areas into the
   immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, where strengthening mid-level
   frontogenetic forcing for ascent appears likely to become focused,
   beneath an intensifying divergent flow field between coupled upper
   jets.  Forecast soundings suggest that lift will become increasingly
   maximized within the dendritic growth layer through 12-15Z, in the
   presence of seasonably high moisture content (including precipitable
   water on the order of .75-1.0 inches) supportive of 1-2 inch per
   hour snow rates, and perhaps occasionally heavier.

    Thundersnow! 

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