Bango

25 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

12z GFS is a screw job to middle TN. Thermals just don't seem like they'll cooperate this far out.

Take solace that Getting screwed means missing out on a statewide .5 inch or less

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Fell asleep.  What did I miss?

Not that much, our totals mostly stayed similiar to other model outputs for upper east tn, but it beefed up some of the surrounding areas and did away with downsloaping (I guess)

I like the nam out to 30, maybe 35-50 miles south of 18z, touch colder I think, similiar looking precip shield

I am happy with my v3 snow totals, but some of the totals in the piedmont would once in a century...

Guessing freakish amounts, if the hour 66 "snow" maps are believed

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

What time is the Euro running?  I think I am going to gut it out and stay up....Like 12:50?

Yeah, seems like I finish around 1:20 a.m.

Skipping panels on v3, but i like the fact the duration of this event is getting longer across multiple models tonight

One thing I am looking for for east tn is the redevelopment as the storm leaves the east coast.  I could be wrong but i think the icon showed it in the last run, and the cmc really develops it, to make for a super long duration event for mid to east tn.  Seems like all the models had it a few days ago and lost it when the models were running the storm due east quickly

Cmc is better west on this run, almost carbon copy east from the 12z, a hair better on 0z

0z Gfs throws us a collective dawg ugly run

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

It’s still pretty epic for a lot of east TN, especially considering it’s early December.  :-) I sure don’t want the .35 inches of ZR to go along with the 4-6 kuchera inches on the 0z NAM.  That could be very bad!

Truer words never spoken.  It sure seems its trending toward a terrible freezing rain threat.

Nam is fast moving, heavy rates.  I wish we could get just a little more turn up the coast, would be epic for east tn/swva if that happened

Is the FV3 skipping panels for y'all as well? It sure looks great to me

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not seen great access on the Euro yet, but looks like Eastern areas get buried, middle valley gets little or nothing, and western areas get something. Will hopefully get better map access shortly.

Also, the gradient running north is much sharper, especially into swva wherein totals are significantly reduced.  There seems less and less turn up the coast and more sliding ots.  

7 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

 

I’ll conveniently ignore the CMC cold bias and cash out now, please and thank you.

 

I will blend the cmc and icon to arrive right back at the same 50/50 proposition i started with lol.  It seems the cmc has been playing catch up all storm, and with that northern track,  on an island. 

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I hope so, cause the old GFS is straight up poo poo for most of TN.

It makes me worrisome how the gfs/icon exit the coast early and at angles not favorable to feed back into the interior

I am not even sure the icon is worth discussing at this point, but it is warm, the track is seemingly favorable but it skirts off the coast sooner than other models. Upper East tn gets scrapped at the end by some heavy snow but its overall meh

Prolly shouldnt read too much into Roberts facebook post tonight, but he doesn't seem too crazy about most of tennessee, and doesn't include east tn in his write up....(could just be an oversight)

How much of the snow comes from the coastal spin cycle?  Not saying it isn't gonna happen but isn't this the only model showing that?

It's amazing how fv3 model consistently "sticks" on the best upcoming panel

Fv3 is fixing to lay the hammer to alot of tennessee, wow @the incoming

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

18z GFS looks better IMO


.

That track is awesome, it's a tick south of the nam, ideal.  

18z icon and gfs tracks are nearly identical across the gulf

Icon has our favorable track, and the track I think we ultimately end up with, but it is its own usual dumpster fire

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC I think at mid day tried to send a primary(or some portion of energy) through middle TN and then transfer to SE GA.  The Euro tried at 0z but not to the CMC’s extent.  You could see a few lows on the 0z EPS.  Almost none on the 12z EPS.   We need a consolidated low to the south...don’t want energy transfers from middle TN to the coast as it wrecks the thermal profile with warm air surging into E TN and M TN.  

What is the controlling factor for the low to be kept south and moving horizontal easterly to Panama city? A stronger high?