Ravens94

This is going to end up being a DC-BAL special it seems.

Absolutely a crushjob

3k also looks to be north glad to see the NAM finally catching on. Probably still not done either

Let's see if the NAM follows the SREF-HRRR trend. I'd be absolutely amazed if it did not shift NW

Yep it's a substantial shift and I'd say 80% are over 12

15z for comparison

So the shift in the SREF is really substantial. BWI

Usually the NAM will follow suite so we will see. SREF huge jump also is a indication

Entire storm *HRRR still really trending NW fast so by no means is this probably done

Pretty clear trend and it's still snowing in most locations. Only to hour 16

Good lord the HRRR really improving the last 3 runs

Yes absolutely every run now going more and more also high to the north is weaker

HRRR really trending NW now. Hot and heavy

Rather monster W shift on the 00z HRRR you can see it starting to show the pivot/negative tilt

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

HRRR is finally catching on.. SREF plume did go up rather substantial member wide even the bullish ARW

SREF plume for BWI went up 6 inches to 9.5

GFS trend map just continues West

Another 25-40 miles Baltimore and DC are in the 12-16 range crazy stuff

Euro wow

RGEM

RGEM is actually a touch more NW and heavier

HRRR continues to want to Amp up and dig this storm more and more

FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA’s Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 was successfully implemented within the GFS, and the FV3-based GFSv15 became operational on 12 June 2019. Other applications, such as regional high-resolution forecasting and coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling for seasonal prediction, are planned for later implementation at NCEP.

The ARW ensemble is what drug the NAM away looking at the SREF but the NMM went up some over 16 for bwi