frontranger8

2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

The cheerleading in here by some is patently ridiculous.  We are number two in the record books.  There isn't much to hang a hat on except the date of the min where some can say they were right.  So what?  The ice is still in rough shape.  Low bar is really low.

I'm not sure you understand "cheerleading". It's all discussion. Move along.

On 9/5/2016 at 1:00 PM, frontranger8 said:

Given the upcoming pattern, a late minimum (past 9/12) looks very unlikely. Good chance the min is before 9/10.

On 9/7/2016 at 7:22 AM, skierinvermont said:

We hear this every year..

I'm such an idiot.

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what difference does it make? we got to second lowest without an extended summer dipole. that's more worthy of discussion 

And I believe it's being discussed? Geez...ice narrative nazi here.

6 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

We hear this every year..

You're confusing this with the musings of exceptionally early mins (before 9/5) we hear every year.

You think we'll see a min after 9/12?

Given the upcoming pattern, a late minimum (past 9/12) looks very unlikely. Good chance the min is before 9/10.

6 hours ago, chubbs said:

You were thinking 4-6'th at the start of the stormy period. Is that still your call?

It was actually prior that I said that. Probably depends on how long the dipole persists. Hard to say, given that it's a pretty destructive pattern, but coming so late in the season. I'd probably say 3rd-5th is most likely at this point for area, at least.

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Folks who were hoping for 2012 cyclone repeat forget that volume is better than that summer.

And that pattern was much different than the one we've been in the past few days. Much smaller cyclone, stronger, and not nearly as cold.

Looks like a dipole develops next, though, so should see losses pick up again soon. But we're well past peak melting season, so that's the good news (if you're rooting for ice survival rather than annihilation).

Ice loss has slowed the past few days, as expected. No Icepocalypse, nothing like 2012.

7 hours ago, Bacon Strips said:

kinda surprised all the melt still going on, while it's been a very favorable pattern for ice the last week or so.    Maybe dude saying that storm was going to rip the ice up is at-least partially right.

That pattern is actually just now setting in.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Area is currently 3.63 million sq km. In order to finish higher than 7th, we'd need to only lose 200,000 sq of area between now and the min as the current 7th place year of 2009 had a min of 3.42 million sq Km. A loss that low from here to the min has never happened I don't think (if it did it was maybe 1997 but I don't have the numbers right in front of me). The 6th place year was 2015 at 3.09 million sq km which is still possible to finish above. So I feel pretty safe saying that we will finish between 2nd and 7th in area.

Volume also doesn't bottom out in August. It bottoms in September. At least according to piomas it does. 

I think at this point, 4th-6th is most likely for both extent and area. It looks as though we'll remain in a favorable pattern for the ice through the 20th. By then, it starts getting a lot tougher to lose big chunks.

7 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

 

As ORH said, way too early to say if minimum will be early or not. And technically temperatures are only anomalously cold compared to very recent history. Specifically, they are cooler than most of the last decade, similar to the 1981-2010 mean, and way above the 20th century average.

However, this upcoming PV does look to provide anomalously cold temps for much of the basin. Definitely not way above the 20th century average.

2 hours ago, Amped said:

No, This is a bomb cyclone which will transfer lots of heat to the surface and mix up subsurface water. It's Icemageddon basically.

I don't think so. It's very broad and actually quite cold at times for this time of year. Similar pattern to what we've seen much of this summer, only stronger and colder. 

Some areas that have very thin ice and get strong winds will break up more, but overall it looks like more of an ice preservation pattern. Definitely not Icemageddon.

Looks like a pretty cold and large PV coming back here soon.

3 hours ago, Bacon Strips said:

just goes to show how unpredictable things can be.

late this past winter,  I think most of us thought we'd have a great shot at challenging 2012 .

I don't understand that. It's been proven repeatedly that there is little predictability until late spring at the earliest.