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Wxdavis5784

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    2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

    I once saw them up forecasted snow totals from 6 inches to 24 inches in 8 hours, and then we wound up getting nothing due to marginal temperatures lol. I don't think they will ever have a bigger forecast bust than that. 

    Are you forgetting about the March 4-6 2001 ultimate bust?? We went from being forecasted 24-36”+ to zippy in about 8 hours...

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

    Before the move I lived in Glen Burnie all my life, so 2010 and all the classic HECS (2003, 1996, etc). I experienced up there. January 2000 was huge in southern MD too wasn’t it?

    Yes we got about 18" out of that one in Charlotte Hall ( Where I grew up, at the northern tip of St. Marys) I remember I was up playing guitar when the 10 oclock news came on and Sue Palka said anyone who went to bed before this newscast is in for a rude awakening when they wake up!! That was such an awesome storm because we were supposed to get 1-2" of slop and then the storm was heading out to sea. The last couple years havent been great, but we have actually managed to eek out a little more than those in the northern portion of the sub-forum. I am hoping we get one HECS this year to ease the pain of the last few years.

    • Like 1

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

    Final total: 8.0". This is the 2nd biggest storm since I've moved here (HECS 2016, when 15.5" fell, is #1).

    Snowboard measurements listed below:

    2.3" (12am, 1/13)

    3.6" (8:15am, 1/13)

    0.2" (2:15pm, 1/13)

    1.7" (11pm, 1/13)

    0.2" (7am, 1/14)

    Where did you move from?

    January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

    The Euro looks good for many of us South of DC. Significantly better than any model looked for my area on 12-9.  And i scored an inch and people just 25 miles to my South had 4-6 inches.  This is still being worked out by the models and even the Northern crew could get in on the good stuff this time.

    Likewise. We ended up with anywhere between 3-5" in Central Calvert. Literally 15-20 min north and there was nothing. 

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    No way to know anything until we get through the next 10 days or so. Didn't like how warm north america was on the EPS. Trop PV pushed all the way over into Siberia leaving north america mild in general everywhere. 

    Nothing like 70 degrees and shorts on Xmas... Seems to becoming a more common theme the last few years.... (Last year aside.)

    December 9/10 Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. 

    Excellent points Mr. Chill. I can think of about 10,000 times (exaggerated slightly) we have been hoping for that kind of shift within 24-48 hrs. Guidance certainly is trending the wrong direction, but there isnt a snowballs chance in hell I throw the towel in on this one 4-5 days out...  

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Ji said:
    3 minutes ago, Ji said:
    2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us

    Well except boxing day but that's #10

    And parts of the area did decent in the boxing day storm. Parts of Southern Maryland on the western shore had 4-7"

    • Like 1
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