Tekken_Guy
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Posts posted by Tekken_Guy
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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:
Don looks like it will warm back up to upper 70s midweek next week and beyond?
No. It looks like the warm weather is gone for good after this week.
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9 hours ago, bluewave said:
October will start with record blocking over Eastern Canada. The weeklies continue this general 500 mb pattern right through October. It’s interesting since several long range seasonal forecasts were showing this type of October regime since last summer. So plenty of Canadian high pressure to our north.
Oct 4-11
Oct 11-18
What does this mean temperature-wise?
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The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event. Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday.
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October’s been pretty normal temperature-wise beyond the first two days and the 7th.
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One last hot day before fall kicks in tomorrow. Are there any more heat comebacks on the horizon, or is summer gone for good after today?
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The forecast seems to have shifted. There is a consensus that the system will almost certainly come on Tuesday. When and how much, is still in question.
The GFS shows a day of light rain as the system remains well to our north, but we’re still on the edge. The Euro shows a more direct hit.
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On the next rain forecast:
On Saturday evening (Eastern), there will be two rain systems, one over Montana and the Dakotas, and the other over Colorado and Arizona, which will be moving toward each other.
There are two scenarios that could happen:
Scenario 1: The two systems fuse together into a powerful storm over Nebraska and South Dakota early Monday morning. It will cross over the Midwest on Monday and reach us by Tuesday.
Scenario 2: The two systems stay away from each other. The Arizona/Colorado system eventually reaches us on Wednesday.
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Big wet day forecast for Tues. 8/13. About 0.4 inches of rain on that day. This is not a random prediction as it is being supported by 4 of 7 models at this point.
Not sure whether or not this is a prediction I can be confident in. It’s still 7 days in advance and I’m having a hard time agreeing with this prediction.
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Updated forecasts
Monday: Still looking nice and dry.
Tuesday: The models seem to be coming into agreement here that there will be some rain on Tuesday. The GFS shows light showers spread out over several hours, the Euro has a heavier but shorter lived storm. Ultimately the two both come out to about a quarter-inch of rain.
Wednesday: Still likely to be the wettest day of next week. The timing is still up in the air. It’s midday storms on the Euro and a late night rain on the GFS. The Euro is much wetter on this than the GFS.
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Forecast for next week:
Monday will be a gorgeous sunny day. Wednesday looks wet and icky. Tuesday is still a toss up although the models have begun trending towards the wet side today.
Still too early for a definitive forecast on Thursday or Friday.
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doesn't look like we will reach 90 - this mornings GFS once again keeps temps well below 90 for a couple weeks . First we have to break out of this pattern we are in with troughing in the northeast
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr
you can really see what is going on with this loop
http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=l
Is this what gave us the year without a summer in 2009?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Looks like we will not have any 90 degree days in May this year -
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr
Also if we have a cooler summer we can avoid the increasing chances of electrical blackouts - we almost had a widespread one this past winter
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR
It looks like we have a shot for some 90s next Wednesday and Thursday.
November 2021
in New York City Metro
Posted
What's happening on Thursday that's going to keep the region from being above normal?