AlaskaETC

NWS Riverton just bumped the forecast up for my area. Now up to 24". 

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

25 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

12z Euro drops snow totals for much of the area.

Ah...the last minute euro pull the rug thing. I guess that happens everywhere

Except for me.

Oh boy, the 12z Euro is very good for my backyard. Nearly 30"...but it might be out of range at this point.

The ECMWF is very friendly to just about everyone from Denver to Casper. I get about 20" verbatim, and 2.4" of QPF 

The UKMET seems like a good blend of the NAM/Para GFS and the operational GFS. Denver gets more snow and some of the amounts in the front range are moderated.

3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

v15 on the right with all the surface wind

 

That'll be a feature to track once we get into the nowcast. 

Just now, skierinvermont said:

I do notice the v15 has a lot more surface wind, blowing in the warm air, scouring out the surface cold, and then since there's no resistance until the moisture has to rise over the foothills we get the extreme qpf over the foothills

That makes a lot of sense. We'll see.

Just now, skierinvermont said:

maybe the GFS has less cold air damming against the foothills? would also explain the lower QPF farther east. I remember the cold air damming 38" storm in Burlington Jan 2010. Cold air damming was so extreme the mountains barely got snow.

I am interested in hearing a more technical analysis of why the Para GFS is colder/wetter than the operational GFS for this storm in particular. The 0z Para GFS is a weenie run for everyone from Denver to Casper.

8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

It's the worst run yet for my back yard. Literally no snow through sunday 0z

I have a feeling the operational GFS will be off quite a bit for the Denver area. Really seems like an outlier right now.

2 minutes ago, MidlothianWX said:

Having lived and tracked storms in the MA for ~10 years before moving here, I'll say that nothing beats a NESIS storm.

That being said, 20" events are a 1 in 5 year occurrence in Boulder, which might explain the lack of action here.

Agreed. I lived in DC a few years ago. The snowstorms here are great, but Nor'easters are just entirely different and uniquely magical. 

0z NAM appears to have most of the action in the front range and central Wyoming, extending into South Dakota and parts of Nebraska. Denver still gets decent totals.

I think most people here are on the east coast. Mountain West discussions are usually not that active. Snowstorms aren't a rare generational event here either...

6 minutes ago, n1vek said:

Saw that tweet yesterday about how the current operational GFS is being put to pasture shortly anyways. I guess we can ride the Para GFS for now (depending on if it is more favorable for my backyard, of course).

Certainly seems like the operational GFS is a little warm, while the Para GFS is much colder/wetter. I hope the Para GFS is right because that's like 25" in my backyard. 

The 18z GFS definitely isn't kind to the Denver area.

4 hours ago, MidlothianWX said:

Interesting note from the NWS AFD this morning:

 

I'm a bit further north but NWS Riverton has been conservative, citing the GFS as a primary reason. I thought the temperatures were a little too warm for some areas.

Just now, Chinook said:

Alaska... or Denver?

Wyoming

The ECMWF looks extra juicy this run, at least for my area. 

The models did a fairly good job with Hurricane Dorian. The forecast seems to be right on track, or roughly within the same range.

Just now, Stebo said:

I always love the hypocrisy of people who have a problem with people following hurricanes when they root on blizzards to bury their location. One of the greatest moments of hypocrisy in weather.

Did I say I had a problem with people following hurricanes? Nope. I said that I was wondering why people are disappointed by a Category 4 turning into a Category 2.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Simple.  Right or wrong, people want to see what nature can unleash.  Although it has weakened, it's going to be plenty bad. 

Yes. However, people should draw the line between being enthusiastic for weather and inadvertently cheerleading for life-taking weather events.

Why are so many people bitterly disappointed by a weakening hurricane?

On 3/6/2017 at 10:30 AM, beavis1729 said:

This is very interesting:  Record Cold in Arctic Canada

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2017/03/record-cold-in-arctic-canada.html#comment-form

 

 

 

Yeah, my friend in Fairbanks has certainly reaped the benefits of the cold and snowy winter. Those constant polar vortex shots make me jealous.

Wow, that's crazy. 9 degrees and heavy snow, with insane winds.

Yeah, he actually ended up getting frostbite on his finger tips while refueling in the middle of it...he had to keep his car running. It isn't severe frostbite at least...his car was roughed up pretty bad though.

My friend in AK recently went on a camping trip up the Dalton Highway and got stuck in a good ole' fashioned interior snowstorm on the way back, south of the Brooks Range. Crazy stuff. Check out his videos below.

I'm thinking we'll see another decent snowstorm soon.