dseagull
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Posts posted by dseagull
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Rates finally picked up in Southern Ocean County on Barnegat Bay. Just got back from the marina to check on my tow boats and make sure the 30AMP shore power cords were covered at the terminals....
Now it's time to get my dog ready for another fun bird hunt in the snow. Thinking we will wind up with around 3.5 if these rates continue long enough.
Enjoy the day all.
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5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:
the below is not a joke....think she was surprised by today?
It's an extremely concerning example of the level of propaganda consumption and delusional hysteria. Sadly, climate change is only one facet of this mental health epidemic. Even worse, is that the narrative is ever-changing, and excuses for weather events (whether it's today's snowfall or maybe an above average seasonal snowfall next year,) are easily developed if they don't fit the agenda. It's sad, because many people take the bait, hook/line/sinker...
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Coastal ocean County, Barnegat Bay.
A balmy 42. Decent gusts to 45 knots. I thought a tree fell on my roof in the middle of the Night.
Turns out it was just my dog being a weenie and banging his head on the wall.
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Fascinating article. Equally terrifying if it were to verify. Unfortunately, most of us have read and consumed a myriad of similar "scary" articles that have not verified over the past 3-5 decades. While this could be the tipping point, this article is only highlighting one of many potential studies that have resulted in any number of potentially devastating outcomes.
This is where sensationalism comes into play. There also exists a tipping point for where people no longer pay attention to every single prediction or publication. CNN is still somewhat mainstream, although part of a dying type of "journalism." Similar to the "boy who cried wolf," many media outlets have overplayed their hands with sensationalism (in an effort to gain clicks or views for advertising profits,) and as a result, reach fewer and fewer members of an audience that is growing skeptical.
Having offered that perspective, I will admit that I am inclined to believe that ocean currents and the rate at which gyres are able to reach and maintain stability, PROBABLY have the most rapid and drastic effects on the climate of our earth. Our oceans (as sinks,) and mediums of thermal energy, are responsible for the vast majority of weather on earth. When the red flags go up, we need to invest resources to determine all possible outcomes.
This sudden of a climate disaster is more in line with other types of geological extinction events. Many scientists have always theorized that this very scenario is responsible for most of the sudden climate swings, not unlike an impact from a large meteor or other space object.
If this sort of cataclysmic even were to verify, there is unlikely any way to prepare for it effectively. The tipping point, would ultimately become an extinction event for a large swatch of the world's population.
Or... this could be just another sensational study and article, following a host of others. This doest mean that we should write it off, but rather delve into the scenario, and scrutinize it carefully. It has very meaningful merit, regardless.
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1 hour ago, hazwoper said:
Maybe respond to my other two posts above? Of course you won't. You know why? Because, again, the science is settled. While NO ONE can say that the warming we have been seeing is 100% due to man (of course it isn't as there are no real 100% certainties when it comes to climate), man most certainly has been the main factor in the increases over the last century.
And BTW, I only put you down because of how absurdly ridiculous your arguments are.
Sir, with all due respect...
I'm not sure what you are asking me to respond to. You initiated dialogue by responding, "trump lost," to one of my posts.
You then went on to insult my intelligence. Immediately after, you either accused me of making statements which I didn't make, or you did not take the time to read my prior posts. This was quickly followed by more insults.
Then, you explained why you were "puting me down," by lazily insulting me further. Finally, you purposely attempted to antagonize someone who clearly stated that they no longer wished to have unproductive conversation. Against my better judgment, I will bluntly and politely offer my suggestion to you one final time.
Share the transcript of our conversation with someone who you associate with in-person. If you are married, perhaps share it with your wife. You are displaying not only incredibly rude behavior, but you are also incoherent in your attempt to argue against points which I had never posted on this forum. Your attempts to inject politics and political affiliation with my very broad assertions (which I said could be wrong,) are foolish, presumptive, and juvenile. You are displaying multiple levels of detachment from the reality of what I hoped would be a polite conversation. You don't know me. I CERTAINLY DON'T KNOW YOU. I can only judge a complete online stranger by how they choose to conduct themselves and communicate with me. With what I have witnessed thus far, I do not wish to continue a conversation.
Politely sir, you seem like you need to address some mental health issues. If I am wrong, you should at least consider treating those who you do not know with a little bit of respect. I am embarrassed for you, but wish you the best.
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Just now, hazwoper said:
Again... you seem to be arguing with yourself and pointlessly insulting someone that you do not know. A good way to avoid this (because it will limit opportunities in life,) is to think before you post. Ask yourself if you would converse this way in a face to face situation. You don't know me. I don't know you. It's a psychological phenomenon, the way people tend to communicate with others through their keyboards.
Sincerely, good luck.
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Just now, hazwoper said:
You are clueless about the general climate cycle that has repeated itself since earths formation and its difference from mans continued increases in carbon releases due to burning of FFs.
Also, I have a degree in Environmental science, but would never call myself a scientist either. BUT, I am educated enough to understand the difference between the general cycle of carbon on our planet over billions of years and the man caused massive release of carbon in just the last 100-150 years.
Good luck sir. Have a nice existence. Address your own internal issues, and try to get past presidents off your mind. Your immediate health is much more important than insulting complete strangers over the internet that are trying to have civil discussions.
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...Also, I have stated many times that anthropogenic global warming is real. I argue that it is not the primary driver. I also argue that we cannot allow the solution to these problems to be worse than the problem itself. We can adapt. I'm not sure what your mental state is or what is going on in your life, but you should read closely before replying. You are doing yourself a disservice, allowing your emotions to dictate your words.
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Just now, hazwoper said:
Ohhhh....so you're a scientist. Gotcha. LOL.
The science is settled for your information. The release of carbon from the burning of fossil fuels that have been held up in the earth's crust since well before the dawn man are ABSOLUTELY, 100% increasing global temperatures. Its settled science Mr. Scientist.
Arguing with angry people that are not interested in having conversations is generally a waste of time. I do hold a degree in oceanography, correct. I never insinuated that I am a "scientist," nor did I argue that my views are settled science or absolutely correct.
I would suggest that you educate yourself about the carbon cycle that has repeated itself many times since the formation of our planet.
Like i said previously, I won't insult you. I wish you the best as a fellow American, and wish you all of the luck over the next few years.
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18 minutes ago, hazwoper said:
Trump lost......
Huh? Trump? What are you even talking about a former president for? Sounds like the man is living in your head rent free.
As for the education, I can assure you that I am well educated. I can also assure you that many other scientists that have opposing views are also incredibly educated.
In essence, you have proven my point for me. Those who believe climate change is primarily anthropogenic in form, generally seem to insult others with opposing views, rather than discuss the issues with them. To these people, it is "settled science," which quite simply does not exist. It goes against the premise of science.
I won't insult you, but I do suggest you diagnose why you mentioned a former president in this forum. It's not a good look, but also a common theme among those who have allowed politics to enter every facet of their lives.
You also seem to forget that "fossil fuels" have allowed humans to advance. Without this form of energy, we may still be in the stone age. Convenient facts to omit. We tend to do better as a species when we use facts, rather than emotions to form arguments or have polite debate.
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1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:
When you resort to insults you have lost the argument. I stated my position on the previous page.
Yes you did. Clearly and concisely, without useless insults. More than likely falling on deaf ears, but well said.
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18 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:20 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:
Now we have a tipping point? What nonsense, no one can honestly say what the earths temperature SHOULD BE. There is over a 100 degree difference between Siberia and Death Valley but now people are claiming what the ideal temp SHOULD BE? Wow.
Aren't you supposed to be in a locked and padded room without food and water?
I'm supposed to die with my entire generation and "climate denial" (which may be the dumbest descriptor I have ever heard.)
Its difficult to have a conversation with individuals who would rather fling insults than have a productive debate.
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:
2C is the tipping point but you'd be a fool to think horrific events already hadn't transpired.
Billions in damages, millions of acres burned, catastrophic flooding & fires, devastating heat waves, crawl out from under your rock.
Proven fact that physical ignition (arson) is responsible for nearly 70 percent of forrest fires. The vast majority of the remainder is mostly caused by humans, neither "climate change" or weather related ignition.
According to NJ.gov, 99 percent of forest fires are caused by humans, with 52.9% caused BY ARSON.
(Remember, this has risen in recent times... due mostly to social media and traditional media broadcasting "Red flag warnings." There are sick individuals. That's a given. There are also politically motivated individuals. Thankfully, controlled burns are now being conducted in a safer manner and more frequently, to avoid worse wildfires..)
Here is a link to the official government site....
https://www.nj.gov/pinelands/infor/educational/curriculum/pinecur/cffnj.htm
(I have fought plenty of fires. I have gone to many conferences, concerning the matter. Please do not blame forrest fires on climate change. This argument failed in both the great Australian fires and the recent Canadian fires to a lesser extent, mainly due to the Canadian censorship and lack of free press.)
People set fires.... There are many ways to mitigate disasters from wildfires that are willfully ignored. Some governing bodies even propose legislation that all but ensures worse fires and more harm to human life and property.
Again, a people problem...not a climate problem. We possess the ability to ensure these wildfire events either do not occur or do not get out of control. Arson will ALWAYS get worse when agendas exist.
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4 hours ago, ChescoWx said:
CNBC reports that “ The world surpasses key warming threshold [+1.5°C] across an entire year for the first time!!! Ruh roh...let's all tremble in our boots.... but of course with that threshold crossed it not surprisingly delivered absolutely nothing catastrophic or life threatening to our planet. Now we used to hear that +1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average temps would be the scary “tipping point.” Me thinks the climate alarmists will need to push that baby back to maybe +2.0°C or surely 2.1 °C. That cataclysmic "tipping point" will most surely happen at that point.....right????
Propaganda has been terrifyingly effective since the dawn of mankind.
We adapt.
....or we dont... That's science.
The cure can't be worse than the problem. For some reason, mankind cannot seem to work past that.
Having said that, our biggest enemy is ourselves and division (only second to those who wish to use perceived "crisis" for control.)
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17 hours ago, TimB said:
Your arrogance is disgusting. I can’t wait until climate denial mostly dies with your generation.
1. Locking people who don't agree with you into padded wall rooms, without food and water.
2. Wishing for the death of an entire generation.
Wow! Your parent's did a fine job, hoss.
And you wonder why the vast majority of Americans have given up on having very necessary discussions surrounding a topic that you believe is the number one existential threat facing the world.
Public education, social media, and propaganda sure have been successful. In my many decades on this planet, I can count on one hand how many times people have walked up to me and said anything that is said 100x a day on a public internet forum.
Being angry and rude during your short existence on this planet seems like a horrible way to live. Being nice, is nice.
Good luck to ya, keyboard cowboy.
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9 minutes ago, chubbs said:
Well you views are much different than mine. Fossil fuels are steadily losing competitive advantage. Wind, solar, EV are all much cheaper than they were a decade ago and growing rapidly on a global basis, often without subsidies. I think we will be kicking ourselves in a decade for not ditching fossil-fuels earlier.
You could very much be correct. I will never chastise another American for their viewpoint, unless it harms or damages my family or way of life in a way prevents me from surviving.
Viewpoints do not result in this... Mandates from Authoritarians do.
When I was younger, I may have held similar beliefs as yourself. I believe that as I have aged and educated myself through reading history and traveling, I have become a realist. I have learned to accept the things which I cannot control. This doesn't mean I have no desire to see positive change, rather my perspectives have changed greatly. Limitations exist. Utopia does not. It is a cruel and wild world we live in.
"I have seen the enemy, and it is us."
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Additionally...
Trust in the governing bodies and the media is at an all-time low, especially on the heels of the "pandemic." (You cannot blame people for this.) Because of this, large scale compliance, in terms of addressing AGW, is going to be nearly impossible.
As I suggested in another thread with @LibertyBell, it is unlikely that climate change will be addressed until a tragic event of some form occurs. Since climate change occurs relatively slowly, history predicts that it will not be adressed collectively and immediately in any meaningful way.
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15 minutes ago, chubbs said:
I would love to see a conservative solution to climate change. For instance a carbon tax with the monies used to reduce income taxes. Has been a no-brainer for decades.
I'm not sure how a carbon tax will be used in any meaningful way. I understand your comment, but I see no way in which a "carbon tax" solves any percieved problems that are defined as a "crisis."
You must remember that most people are just trying to get by. The last thing on their mind is climate change. They don't want to pay 3x more for wind generated electricity. They don't have money for an electric vehicle. They can barely afford rent, even with government subsidies.
I admire the people who believe that humans can lower global temperature, because that is admirable conviction. But, how will you achieve this? The world doesn't work this way. By all means, try to make the earth a cleaner and healthier place to live, but raising and lowering global temperature through carbon reduction is setting an unrealistic goal at this point in time.
The man-made problems that we are facing right now (literally as I type this,) are much more dire. Those problems are not related to climate change, which does not meet "crisis" criteria for 99 percent of the world's population.
Our biggest threats are immediate. Let's address those problems and then collectively brainstorm our way out of other issues, after we unify and heal from the societal issues that are man-made and intentional, rather than unintentional (carbon production.)
You will not see a world in which anthropogenic climate change can be accurately and honestly assessed and addressed until human beings solve those immediate issues.
Again.... we have MUCH MUCH bigger problems to focus on in the near-term. All signs point to some very dark times ahead for us.
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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:
Lol yeah no.
For climate change deniers the whole world could literally be on fire and they'll look the other way.
There's no new low they won't sink too. A lot of these rich folks already have bunkers ready.
The bunkers are for the civil unrest that results from authoritarian measures and the same brainwashed fools that went bonkers (and still are bonkers) from the "pandemic."
It's all about control. NOBODY is denying that the climate changes or that anthropogenic climate change (to some extent,) is real. We disagree with the suggested measures, the gaslighting, and the propaganda. (All for profit and power.)
If people would come together and develop sane solutions to problems instead of falling for "crisis after crisis," they wouldn't be so easily controlled and manipulated. If you think your government cares about you in 2024, you need to wake up.
Having said all of that, It is America. You are free to believe what you would like to believe and say what you would like to say. It is your God given right. What you are not free to do is dictate how other free citizens in our republic would like to live our lives without interference from our government or a "global governing body."
The next few years are going to be unimaginably difficult for many Americans. This has nothing to do with climate change.
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15 minutes ago, psv88 said:
Is it spring yet?
It's coming.... I caught jonah crabs in my crab pots today. They generally start showing up around now for their late winter and early spring migration into the bay and then back out to 60 feet of water. But... they don't usually show up in these numbers until March. Very good news, because as great as they are for Tautog bait, they are also excellent table fare.
Mother nature always shows her hand with natural signs.
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47 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:
For those who have an open mind… (because real “science” is supposed to be open to all possibilities)
.Get ready for incoming fire... take cover...."oh no, not another opinion!!!"
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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Yes, I agree with this too, large paradigm shifts only usually happen after something really bad happens first. I thought the results of the pandemic would be cause something like that to occur (it still might, how it was handled has lasting effects.)
Unfortunately, I don't think the pandemic and the disaster of how it was handled or the distrust that has resulted... is the "something really bad." We may be getting closer to that though. We shall see. Until that day, it's important to keep perspective and live. Enjoy the day, gentlemen. Time to enjoy the bluebird skies on my day off and take my fur missle for a hike at Wells Mills. Be well.
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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:
Yes, sadly we see greed and a thirst for control and power from all sides, because everyone seems to be chasing their cash cow. It's happened throughout human history, from even way before there were fossil fuels being used. It's why wars are fought and millions of people die.
The only way you defeat this is through a unified population. The PEOPLE need to find a way to get behind something everyone universally agrees on. Utopia doesn't exist, and it never will. But, large governing bodies only grow more an more powerful with the use of division.
The use of propaganda and censorship only throws gas on the fire. People need to educate themselves. That is a tall order, however. Unfortunately, change and progress usually only follow tragedy, at least in human history.
Its a fascinating time to be alive. I think the best way to better all of our lives is to find things we can all agree on. We can all agree on certain sacrifices that can be made, I'm sure. I'm sure we can also agree upon ending censorship. It's difficult to form opinions and debate effectively without all of the information.
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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Thanks, I have said this before and I'll say this again-- you provide a valuable service with what you do both in terms of your service record and also the logs you keep about sea surface temperature. It's not easy to find this kind of information for specific areas.
I have always thought the most important way to handle situations is how do they impact human health?
Changes in temperature do have an impact, but it's always been a hazy issue how much is cyclical and how much is human induced, and out of that subset, how much is from carbon emissions and how much is from transforming the planet into large densely populated concrete filled cities.
I can definitely say that living in a large urban area has an impact on health, because whenever I stay at my other house in the Poconos I sleep so much better (no light pollution) and the air feels so much cleaner. This is an issue that isn't just about climate change, but also about how we build our cities and the materials we use to build them with.
I look at things from a health and quality of life vantage point as well.
The great debate is surrounding how we can address the issues that are presented to us, with the least disruptions and the best results. It also has to be done without forfeiting the liberties and freedoms that are afforded to us in our constitution. There exists ways to do this. Anything is possible. The number one thing that stands in our way is human greed and the thirst for control and power.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Honest question, which is not in any way accusatory or meant to spark climate debate.
First, let me begin with a statement. NOAA AND NHC are now seemingly willing to name storms which up until the mid 90s, would have never been closely watched and/or named. With satellite tech. advancing exponentially, and more funding being allocated towards meteorology in the public sector, this is understandable.
However, it is a fact that benign storms that have little impact on any landmass other than PERHAPS a ground swell, and mainly just shipping interests, are now often named. There are plenty of examples of non-comvective swirls being named, only to dissipate within 24 hours. Prior to the 90s, only professionals would ever know of these tropical or extratropical systems.
Now to my questions....
Is it disingenuous to use these "named storm" stats within historical data that is used for climatological trends? Correlation and causation are convoluted as a result of "named storm" statistics.
I'm sure this is a topic that some people have addressed. Unfortunately, the general population is unaware of this topic. They focus solely on headlines and "scary" numbers and perceived trends.
I'd love to hear some feedback, as it's a question my father and I often have discussion about.