andrew29649

Can you get that in the Kuchera ?

Reach! That would be an earlier than expected onset for the southern upstate of SC

You have a great point. My vague memory always remembers them starting around dusk or in the early AM hours. Waking up to way more than forecast. Every one I can remember during the day was a temperature battle that cut totals.

Someone cash me out now please! Never seen a 3 day away Euro map show ~12” for MBY! What a wild winter!

That same thought came to mind. The tv mets are tired and probably over fatigued from comments calling it a “bust” they will be even more conservative.

The ratios being high give us all some life. 0.40-0.60 QPF at 15:1 would be nice!

IMO the CAD won. We never went above freezing in the southern part of upstate SC.

Comes from getting an ultimate WEDGEy

I say wait until it’s snowing in northern Mississippi next Friday first

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1B8YyNq9AP/?mibextid=wwXIfr Verbatim: Don’t doubt the wedge. Low pressure tends to take the path of least resistance. High pressure is locked in, the Low isn’t going to plow into it. Expect a slight southward trend on the models coming up.

Considering there would be QPF equivalent of frozen precip of at least 1” would that not help hold surface temps below freezing in the areas that show the CAD eroding? Said differently, do the models take into account snow, ZR, IP on the ground when modeling 2M temps? I would think there would be an insulating factor here…

GWD is MBY As I watch the trends this forecast seems inevitable. Need to find an ice storm preparedness checklist now.

Has there ever been a Z rain event that widespread in the south/southeast ever? I just don’t want to believe that can verify.

The GFS is picking up on something similar roughly 2 days later. It’s really amped up too soon and cuts up the apps.

CMC is working on some gravy on top of the taters after this weekend